Axios Des Moines

November 06, 2024
Hi, Wednesday. Welcome to your first day free of political ads.
β οΈ Weather: Partly sunny with a high of 55Β°.
π Happy birthday to our Axios Des Moines member Ami Randazzo!
Situational awareness: Donald Trump will be the 47th U.S. president, AP projected this morning. His victory follows an election cycle unlike any other in modern history.
This newsletter is 959 words, a 3.5-minute read.
1 big thing: Iowa remains red


Iowa remains solidly red, continuing Republican domination in U.S. Congress and the Iowa Legislature, including probable supermajorities in both state chambers.
Why it matters: The last Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll projected that Iowa could actually become more blue, but the state, and much of the country, ended up as a GOP landslide.
Driving the news: Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn narrowly fended off a challenge from Democrat Lanon Baccam in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District, the Associated Press reports.
- Meanwhile, the race for Iowa's 1st District between Christina Bohannon and U.S. Rep. Marianne Miller-Meeks (R) was not called by the AP as of 5:15am Wednesday. Miller-Meeks was several hundred votes ahead and gave a victory speech Tuesday night.
More results: One major local upset was Democrat Matt Blake defeating five-term incumbent Republican Brad Zaun in an Iowa Senate race, according to the AP.
- Meanwhile, Republicans Jill Altringer and Mark Holm won their Polk County Supervisor races, according to unofficial results.
What we're watching: Several Iowa Senate races were still too close to call as of 5:15am Wednesday βΒ including those between Democrat Nate Boulton and Republican Mike Pike, as well as incumbent Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott and Republican Mark Hanson.
- Pike appears ahead by about .1% of the vote, according to unofficial election results.
- Trone Garriott declared victory on social media last night after garnering just 19 more votes than Hanson.
- Both of the races appear close enough for a recount covered by the state.
Plus: It's possible Zaun could become Gov. Kim Reynolds' pick for lieutenant governor, writes Laura Belin of Bleeding Heartland, a left-leaning publication.
- "He's on very good terms with Trump, and Reynolds will need to mend fences with the next president after spending months campaigning for Governor Ron DeSantis before the Iowa caucuses," Belin writes.
2. Trump solidly wins Iowa
Iowa voters stuck with former President Trump Tuesday night, and the state remains a red stronghold, the Associated Press reports.
Why it matters: Despite a shock Iowa Poll over the weekend that indicated Vice President Harris might be in the lead there, Trump easily landed a win and cemented his support.
By the numbers: Trump led the state by 13 points βΒ 56% to 43% β when the AP called the state in his favor at 9:40pm CT on Tuesday night.
- In 2020 and 2016, the former president ultimately won the state by eight and nine points, respectively.
State of play: Neither presidential candidate spent much time on the ground in Iowa this cycle as they focused on more traditional battleground states instead.
The big picture: Iowa only holds six votes in the Electoral College β a meager number in comparison to other states with obvious tight races.
- Its role has typically been more symbolic in the election cycle. Through the Iowa Caucus, it grants visibility and boosts presidential candidates early on.
- Before 2016, it was largely viewed as a purple state when it came to presidential races and helped serve as a bellwether for the Midwest.
3. Selzer poll falls flat for Iowa Democrats
An Iowa Poll that sent a surge of enthusiasm through Democrats in the election's closing days didn't match reality.
Driving the news: The Des Moines Register poll from legendary pollster J. Ann Selzer β who developed a formidable track record over two decades of on-target projections β showed Harris leading by three points due to overwhelming support among women voters.
- That led Democratic strategists and even some fellow pollsters to wonder if Selzer had spotted something they'd missed. Some even started to speculate about a blue wave.
- In fact, Trump leads in Iowa by 14 points with around two-thirds of the vote in at time of writing.
- The Trump campaign is taking a victory lap, saying in a statement that Trump and Vance "will help to ease costs ... for retirees like Ann Selzer."
Zoom in: Criticisms of the Iowa Poll was the common narrative by Republicans Tuesday night.
- During her victory speech last night, Miller-Meeks held up a copy of the Des Moines Register and "thanked" Selzer for the poll, saying it motivated Republicans to turn out.
- Miller-Meeks noted the poll predicted she was going to overwhelmingly lose by 16 points.
What she's saying: Selzer told the Register Tuesday night that she plans to review her data and welcomes the opportunity to learn from the process.
- She notes that some last-minute deciders could have decided on Trump, including those who planned to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
4. The Ear: Pop, drop and read
π³οΈ More than 675,000 Iowans voted early this year, far lower than the 2020 record but slightly more than 2016. (Iowa Capital Dispatch)
βοΈ Problems with voting machines in Story County will result in an administrative recount for about a dozen polling sites. (KCCI)
π£ An invasive species of mussel that can disrupt an aquatic food chain has been discovered at Saylorville Lake. There's no effective treatment to control them. (WHO-13)
πͺ Casey's General Stores finalized its acquisition of Fikes Wholesale, taking over about 200 CEFCO Convenience Stores in Texas, Alabama, Florida and Mississippi. (Business Record)
π° The state will pay a $3.5 million settlement to the mother of a resident at the state-run Glenwood Resource Center, who the U.S. Justice Department said died after inadequate care at the facility. (Radio Iowa)
5. π 1 tweet to go: Pizza problems
State Auditor Rob Sand was accused of election misconduct after he handed out Little Caesars pizza to early voters waiting in line on Monday at the Polk County Election Office, the Register reports.
State of play: Republican consultant Luke Martz sent an election misconduct complaint to state and local officials noting Iowa Code prohibits people from "treating voters" who are on the premises or within 300 feet of a polling place, per the Register.
What he's saying: "If I wanted to treat them, I would've bought Casey's," Sand shared on Facebook.
π¦ 1 decisive Election Day win: Oscar, a North American porcupine, won 74% of the vote in Blank Park Zoo's fundraiser for Zoo Mayor. He's replacing Barnaby, an Aldabra tortoise who was elected in 2020.
- Deuce the African lion won 17% of the vote; Kitsi the snow monkey got 9%.
This newsletter was edited by Shane Savitsky.
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