Happy Tuesday! Give yourself the time you deserve to make the next right decision.

☀️ Today's weather: High near 94 and sunny.

🎵 Sounds like: "Loving Life Again"

🎉 Happy birthday to our Axios Dallas member Aaron Easaw!

• Support local journalism that covers your world by becoming a member.

💰 Situational awareness: Morgan Stanley will establish a new U.S. hub in Dallas, after several months of consideration.

• Texas offered the company almost $44 million in grants for the regional office. The city offered up to $18.5 million, in addition to tax abatement.

Today’s newsletter is 991 time-traveling words — a 3.5-minute read.

With polls showing a tight U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, we decided to see how this year matched up against 2018, the last time a Texas statewide election came down to the wire.

Why it matters: How this year compares to that one — the last Trump midterm election — could be the best predictor of what'll happen in November.

Flashback: In 2018, Democrat Beto O'Rourke lost to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points, or about 215,000 votes.

• The contours of that race look similar this year's: a Democratic candidate running his first statewide campaign with a fundraising advantage facing a Republican representing the anti-establishment wing of his party.

What's changed: There are over 3 million more Texas registered voters this year than in 2018.

Stunning stat: Republicans enjoyed a huge advantage in the sheer number of voters in the March 2018 primary ahead of the November election. This year, Democrats held the advantage.

• 1.5 million Texans voted in the GOP U.S. Senate primary in March 2018, and 1 million cast ballots in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary that year.
• 2.32 million Texans voted in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary this year, and 2.16 million cast votes in the Republican U.S. Senate primary.

Between the lines: In many ways, the U.S. Senate race — then and now — could be viewed as a referendum on Trump.

• The president himself said "pretend that I'm on the ballot" at the GOP midterm convention in Dallas.

By the numbers: In October 2018, Trump had a 48% approval rating among respondents to a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll. 45% disapproved.

• In August 2026, the most recent Texas Politics Project Poll, 51% disagree with the job he's doing and 43% approve.

The bottom line: Energized Democrats were eager to check presidential power in 2018.

• Ditto this year.

More similarities

Of course, Trump isn't on the ballot.

Why it matters: Paxton, the three-term Texas attorney general, carries the sort of scandal-laden baggage that Cruz, whatever his foibles, avoided as he managed his narrow 2018 victory.

Flashback: Paxton was impeached by the Republican-dominated Texas House (and then acquitted by the Texas Senate).

• He was the subject of a federal corruption investigation, faced state securities fraud charges and the State Bar of Texas sought to sanction him for his attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
• Paxton's wife, Republican state Sen. Angela Paxton, accused him of adultery and filed for divorce last year.

Meanwhile, Cruz, comfortable on the stump, barnstormed in 2018. Paxton has been panned as an uninspiring, sometimes absent-from-the-trail campaigner. (Paxton spent the Fourth of July in England.)

• Paxton campaign spokesperson Madison Cercy tells Axios Paxton has been "meeting Texans from every corner of our great state."

Yes, but: Talarico, a state legislator from Austin, and O'Rourke have differences, too.

• "While there was more excitement for Beto among Democrats in 2018 than for Talarico in 2026, Talarico may have a broader appeal to independents and especially leaning Republicans," Long says.
• And while Talarico polls well among Black voters, his primary opponent U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) hasn't campaigned for him.
• "I remember seeing the students at PVAMU being very enthusiastic about Beto in 2018, and I have not seen that this time around," Billy Monroe, a political science professor at Prairie View A&M University, a historically Black institution, tells Axios.

🩺 The Texas attorney general's office is investigating Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Texas over possible denials and delays of some care. The insurer's media team said it doesn't comment on investigations. (DMN)

🏥 Two Atmos contract workers were hospitalized after a gas line they were pressure-testing in the Design District exploded. The injuries were not believed to be critical, per Dallas-Fire Rescue. (NBC5)

❌ Starbucks has closed two of its Dallas locations amid 250 closures across the country. (Dallas Observer)

Ella Langley's tale of woe in "Choosin' Texas" took her to the top of the charts in February, and she's not budging.

Why it matters: The country song from the 27-year-old Alabaman is a triumph of the digital era: its popularity grew organically across mediums, not dependent on any one ecosystem.

• Modern hits often break through on TikTok, streaming or radio. "Choosin' Texas" caught fire across all three, the Washington Post wrote in April.

Driving the news: The song is the longest-running non-holiday No. 1 in the 68-year history of Billboard's Hot 100, surpassing Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is You" for the longest tenure at No. 1.

Fun fact: Langley got the inspiration for the line "she's from Texas, I can tell" while talking to Miranda Lambert about a pet kangaroo that Lambert once owned. They wrote "Choosin' Texas' in less than an hour.

• "It's crazy to see the ownership that the fans have taken over it, and the different demographics of people listening to the song is so cool. Just nuts to see everything happen," Langley told Billboard.

What's next: Langley will headline the Two Step Inn music festival in Georgetown in April.

This newsletter was edited by Bob Gee.

Our picks:

☕️ Naheed is celebrating National Coffee Day.

Promise to always choose us? Become a Dallas member for as little as $25 a year and get exclusive newsletters and access to members-only events!