Suddenly popular prediction markets, flush with new users from the U.S. presidential election, believe they can keep the momentum going with new intriguing markets.

Why it matters: The idea of gleaning wisdom from the betting crowd through giant markets of bettors got a major boost on election night, but presidential races come only once every four years.

By the numbers: Kalshi tells Axios that it got a million new sign-ups, $275 million is new deposits, and facilitated over $1 billion in betting volume.

• An exchange run by Interactive Brokers saw $650 million traded in both its own election markets and the presidential market initiated by Robinhood, launched just nine days before the election.
• And Polymarket, the biggest prediction market out there — though not legally open to U.S. users — saw $2.5 billion in volume in October, according to Blockworks. (It's the only blockchain-based platform of the bunch.)

Meanwhile, in a sign of retail interest, both Kalshi and Polymarket's apps surged in the Apple app store as the election neared.

What's next: Kalshi expects that political junkies will continue to appreciate markets on questions like presidential nominations and winners in future elections.

• But new users might also get interested in their quarterly markets for things like Fed decisions and CPI numbers, it says.
• And Interactive Brokers, which mostly serves users outside the U.S., also has economic markets and offers bets around climate change indicators.

Yes, but: It's far from clear whether bettors will stick around now that the weirdest, most dramatic U.S. presidential election in living memory has been put to bed: Will users that came for Trump vs. Harris pop back in to put a bet on monthly inflation data or the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide?

• "If people have money on Polymarket they may take some time getting it off. We don't have enough data on stickiness of deposits yet," Meltem Demirors, founder of the venture firm Crucible Capital and a Polymarket investor, tells Axios.

Reality check: Right now, the election surge is being viewed as a unique event for the popularity of prediction markets.

• "I know there's a lot of attention on it over the last few weeks, and I do think there could be a place for it outside of elections, but that's really where the interest seems to be now from a customer demand side," Jason Robins, CEO of sports betting site DraftKings, told investors earlier this month when asked about prediction markets.

The intrigue: Robins said DraftKings plans to look at offering markets ahead of the next presidential election "for sure."

Context: Sports betting is still much, much larger than political betting — much less other event betting — and that's unlikely to change.

• Most bettors like contests that resolve fairly quickly, rather than waiting a year to find out the final result.

What we're watching: Sports betting is also on much sounder regulatory footing. Unlike sports gambling which is governed by states, non-sports event predictions are licensed as a financial market.

• Prediction markets in the U.S. are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which a year ago had sought to block political event contracts being offered by Kalshi.
• A district judge in September sided with Kalshi's argument that the CFTC exceeded its authority, and a circuit court denied the regulator's request for an emergency stay, which cleared the way for U.S. election markets on Oct. 2.
• The circuit court, however, has yet to issue a decision on the CFTC's appeal.

The bottom line: Regulated event markets were somewhat sleepy in the U.S. before a green light from the courts opened up election betting a month before the election. The question now is whether millions of new users will go back to bed.

Heather Morgan, better known by her rap moniker Razzlekhan, was sentenced yesterday to 18 months in prison over a 2016 bitcoin theft, crypto news outlet Decrypt reported.

Why it matters: Morgan and her husband Ilya Lichtenstein pleaded guilty last year to stealing more than $3 billion worth of bitcoin from virtual exchange Bitfinex.

• The value of the stolen bitcoin would be almost $10.8 billion in the current market.
• Lichtenstein was sentenced to five years in prison last week.

Catch up quick: Using "advanced hacking tools and techniques," Lichtenstein broke into the network and "fraudulently authorized more than 2,000 transactions transferring 119,754 bitcoin from Bitfinex to a cryptocurrency wallet" in his control, the Justice Department said in a past statement.

• Morgan was accused of helping him launder the cryptocurrency.

💭 Brady's thought bubble: She's the Crocodile of Wall Street and we don't deserve her.

What's next: Amazon MGM Studios is reportedly making a movie about Morgan and her efforts to become a rapper and influencer.

Options on bitcoin ETFs look likely to start trading this week.

Why it matters: Typically, options markets have the potential to be larger than the market for the underlying asset the options are based on.

The latest: CoinDesk reported yesterday that options trading on BlackRock's IBIT instrument — the largest bitcoin ETF — should begin on the New York Stock Exchange today.

• Options on other ETFs should begin soon.

Zoom out: Options have long been viewed as an important tool for drawing more institutional traders to bitcoin ETFs.

• They're used by funds both to help enhance returns and to manage portfolio risk.

Background: The Securities and Exchange Commission approved the options in September, but other regulators had to weigh in as well.

• The CFTC ruled last week that options trading is an SEC matter, clearing the way for the final green light.

Trump Media & Technology Group (Nasdaq: DJT), the parent company of Truth Social, is in talks to buy digital asset marketplace Bakkt Holdings (NYSE: BKKT), per the Financial Times.

Why it matters: It's the latest indication that President-elect Donald Trump's crypto conversion is legitimate, even if he isn't officially involved with TMTG beyond being its majority shareholder.

Catch up quick: Bakkt was formed by NYSE parent company Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), and later went public via SPAC. Reports emerged this summer that it was weighing a sale or breakup.

• Its original CEO was Kelly Loeffler, a former ICE exec who's co-chair of Trump's inaugural committee. Loeffler also is married to ICE chairman and CEO Jeff Sprecher, which is relevant because ICE still holds more than a 50% stake in Bakkt.

By the numbers: Bakkt's shares jumped over 160% on the report, giving it a market cap of around $400 million. TMTG could afford even that premium, given its high stock price and its $372 million of cash on hand through the end of Q3.

💭 Brady's thought bubble: Bakkt is an example of just how bad established players are at capitalizing on a very new technology.

• The public always gave it the benefit of the doubt because of its parent company, but it never made a dent in the crypto market. It initially played around with payments, so maybe the idea would be for TMTG to mimic Elon Musk's super-app plans for X.

🎥 Upon further consideration, yeah, Peter Todd really doesn't seem likely to have been Satoshi. (Shell Game)

⚖️ More small public companies are buying bitcoin. (Blockworks)

🐎 Rumors are now swirling that Cantor Fitzgerald chief Howard Lutnick looks likely to be Commerce chief — rather than Treasury helmsman, as he reportedly hoped. (Axios) Lutnick is closely associated with the world's dominant stablecoin, Tether. (Washington Post)

🏀 Shaq reportedly inked an $11 million settlement for a lawsuit related to NFTs. (Axios)