President Trump's tariff hike on imported vehicles is poised to shake up the American auto industry.

• Why it matters: Winners and losers are set to emerge if and when the tariffs take effect.

The big picture: Trump yesterday announced 25% tariffs on autos and auto parts. That means every new vehicle sold in the U.S. will be affected.

• Almost half of vehicles sold in the U.S. are assembled elsewhere — and each one has at least 20% foreign-made components, according to the Department of Transportation.

Here's our list of who stands to benefit and who will likely feel some pain.

Winners:

• Auto parts retailers: AutoZone and O'Reilly Auto Parts were among the S&P 500's biggest gainers today. Investors are betting that more car owners will opt to repair their vehicles longer before looking for a new one.
• Dealerships: Dealers make most of their money on repairs. Plus, higher vehicle prices will be absorbed by automakers, not dealers.
• Efforts to entice foreign automakers to build here: Volvo and Volkswagen are among the automakers weighing plans to build more vehicles in the U.S. to avoid the tariffs.

Losers:

• New-car buyers: Automakers are likely to raise prices by an average of $3,000–$4,000 per new vehicle, Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally estimates. Imports from Japan, South Korea and Europe, meanwhile, are headed for price increases of an estimated $9,375, he projected.
• U.S. vehicle exporters: Automakers that assemble vehicles in the U.S. for shipment to other countries will be impacted by retaliatory tariffs. Ford, General Motors, Toyota, BMW, Honda, Mercedes and Tesla are among the companies that export U.S.-built vehicles to other countries.
• Suppliers: Automakers will likely pressure their biggest suppliers to absorb some of the costs — and those suppliers will likely pressure their suppliers in a cascading effect that will probably hurt the smallest companies the hardest.

The bottom line: Substantial disruption is afoot.

"'Drill, baby, drill' is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn't have a clear goal. We want more stability."

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Five years after widespread toilet paper shortages, a new risk looms for the essential product.

Threat level: President Trump's pledge to nearly double tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber may "risk pinching toilet paper supply," Bloomberg reports.

• Softwood lumber is key to the production of toilet paper and paper towels — and most of it comes from Canada.

Zoom in: Any significant production disruption portends possible price hikes and "risks reviving painful memories of pandemic-era toilet paper shortages, when store shelves were stripped bare amid panic buying," according to Bloomberg.

💭 Nathan's thought bubble: I'm going to resist the pandemic-era urge to stock up now.