Oil execs offer brutal early verdict on Trump's trade policies

• The overall industry is greeting Trump with a mix of elation and concern.

Driving the news: "'Drill, baby, drill' is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn't have a clear goal," said one exec who was quoted anonymously.

• "Uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy continues to negatively impact our business, both for mid- to long-term planning and near-term costs," said another, using the "u" word that surfaced a lot.
• Several said tariffs will raise steel costs, while others said the push for lower prices collides with a major oil output boost (a reminder U.S. production is already at record levels and still rising).

"There cannot be 'U.S. energy dominance' and $50 per barrel oil; those two statements are contradictory," said one respondent.

• Trump wants lower prices, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the FT he hopes shale producers could boost output even at $50 per barrel.
• But Wright says officials aren't targeting a specific price and that markets dictate it.

Catch up quick: The quarterly survey typically gets responses from 130-150-ish execs with companies in the Dallas Fed region — including the prolific Permian Basin.

• The comments capture vibes. But it has harder data on firms' cost predictions, breakeven costs for existing wells, average prices needed to profitably drill new ones — typically far above $50 — and plenty more.
• A majority of respondents see U.S. prices at $65-75 at the end of 2025.
• The Q1 edition finds a slight rise in industry activity, but also a jump in the "uncertainty index" and that cost increases sped up.

Yes, but: A bunch of caveats here! The survey has praise for Trump moves, such as policies that are bullish for gas demand.

• And it captures the views of onshore producers and service companies, largely operating on private lands.
• The industry embraces moves like renewed LNG export approvals, fewer regulations, more access to federal onshore and offshore regions, and more.

State of play: Taylor Rogers, a White House spokesperson, noted that Trump met last week with a large group of industry execs "who are eager to unleash American energy after four years of Biden's radical climate agenda."

• "For the first time in four years, representatives of the oil and gas industry were welcomed back to the White House," Rogers said.
• Tariffs weren't discussed at the meeting, a White House official previously told Axios.

The bottom line: Trump is unlikely to greatly speed up slow U.S. oil production increases — especially if trade wars crimp demand growth.

• But steps like expanded leasing in the Gulf of America (renamed by the U.S. from the Gulf of Mexico) and frontier areas in Alaska can lay the groundwork for big projects that take many years to come to fruition.