Texas has gained more than 2.5 million new residents since 2020, reshaping the electorate and injecting new uncertainty into this year's marquee Senate race.

Why it matters: Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is favored to defeat Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in November, but the influx of new arrivals — along with fading Latino support for President Trump — has scrambled the political math in typically red Texas.

By the numbers: Texas added nearly 400,000 residents in 2025, the most of any state, bringing its population to 31.7 million, per an Axios review of U.S. Census Bureau data analyzed by Mendoza Law Firm.

Zoom in: The big unknown is which party the new arrivals favor. Signals are mixed.

• Newcomers tend to be less tied to Texas' long-standing political patterns, Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, tells Axios. That gives Democrats more persuadable voters.
• New residents often fall into two broad camps: "economic migrants" and "political refugees," Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, tells Axios.
• The first group moved for jobs, lower living costs or family and are more politically mixed. The political types often fled liberal states for lower taxes and more conservative politics.

State of play: The migration churn matters even more because Latino voters — another key piece of Texas' changing electorate — are showing signs of moving away from Trump.

• Trump's disapproval has climbed to 67% among Latino voters in Texas, per a recent poll.

Reality check: No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and Paxton has already won three statewide general elections.

• Democrats have repeatedly underperformed in the urban areas they need, Rottinghaus says.

The bottom line: Texas isn't suddenly blue. But it is bigger, newer and less predictable — and that's enough to make Paxton's Senate race uncomfortable for Republicans.

Read the rest

We caught up recently with influencer Tim Laielli to describe his ideal Austin day.

State of play: Born in New Jersey and raised in the Midwest, Laielli and his wife moved to Austin in 2020 when she took a job as an attorney at Vinson and Elkins.

• He's now up to 1.3 million followers on Instagram, where he makes short, absorbing cooking videos and partners with Austin brands like Made In.
• This year he was a contestant on "Next Level Chef."

What he's saying: We asked Laielli, who lives near Circle C, to describe his very best Austin day.

This conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.

Tell us about your morning routine:

"I wake up at 6:30, throw on some coffee and start packing lunches for my daughters. They're all gone by 8, and then I get in a workout — ideally, a long bike ride through Austin."

Are you kitted out or do you wear regular clothes?

"If you dress like a normal person, people think you got a DUI and can't drive. No, I throw on my kit. ... I might hit a farmers market or lunch for myself. I like the Cabo Bob's in Sunset Valley."

What's next?

"I start my day all over again, with coffee around 3pm. I'm a big fan of Texas Coffee Works and Austin Roasting Company ... Our older daughter is into soccer, my younger daughter into competitive dance, so our evenings I'm basically running the kids around."

His Cabo Bob's order

A private jet that crashed in the Dominican Republic shortly after takeoff was headed to Austin to pick up former MLB All-Star catcher Yadier Molina. (KVUE)

📈 The number of screwworm cases in Texas has grown to four, including a dog that was recently in Mexico, according to the Department of Agriculture. (KXAN)

🗳️ One of the lawyers who defended Paxton in his impeachment trial endorsed Talarico yesterday, saying Paxton has "lost sight of his core mission" to represent Texans. (Texas Tribune)

Teens seeking to socialize together in public this summer are discovering that their presence is often treated as a problem.

Why it matters: The decline of malls, cheap hangout spots and welcoming public spaces has left teenagers with few places to gather without money or access to a car, urban designers and youth researchers say.

State of play: With few options, teens have organized large gatherings in cities nationwide, which local officials have dubbed "teen takeovers."

Zoom out: Teens are increasingly asking why they lack third places — locations to hang out that are not work, school or home — that earlier generations took for granted.

Case in point: Project for Public Spaces worked with young people to design The Pass in San Antonio, a renovated underpass with basketball courts, charging stations and seating.

• A Project for Public Spaces grant also helped Austin to revitalize a former parking lot at Parque Zaragoza into a colorful "traffic garden," or bike track.
• The updated park, which was completed in August, also has picnic tables, walkways and ramps.

Read the rest

With Game 4 tomorrow of the Knicks-Spurs NBA Finals, we turned to our Austin-based colleague Sami Sparber for her memories of key New York player Jalen Brunson.

• Brunson and Sami went to Adlai E. Stevenson High School together, occasionally sharing the gym where she played on the girls' freshman team and he was a varsity star.

What she's saying: Brunson drew a lot of eyes to their school in the Chicago suburbs. He helped Stevenson win its first-ever boys basketball state championship in 2015.

• "Stevenson is really big, like 4,000 kids," Sami tells us. "So we all knew who he was and understood that he was super talented but he was sort of just another guy in our really crowded halls."
• "That said, we definitely celebrated that Brunson played for our team and not any of our rivals!"

The latest: The Spurs beat the Knicks last night, but they're still down 2-1 in the best-of-seven series.

The bottom line: Sami, since you asked, is no longer playing basketball, but she can be found around Austin playing a nasty hand of Mahjong.