NATO is a promise, and now it's broken, write Axios' Dave Lawler and Zachary Basu.

• The alliance was built on the premise that an attack on one member is an attack on all. President Trump has made that conditional: If you won't help me in my war, I might not show up for yours.
• Trump and his team have fumed at NATO allies for denying the U.S. logistical help or access to their airspace or military bases to carry out attacks against Iran. He called them "cowards" for refusing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters: NATO's mutual-defense framework doesn't apply to the Iran war, far from the alliance's territory. But these days could be the death knell for the most powerful and consequential alliance of the past eight decades.

Flashback: This all comes months after Trump threatened to seize Greenland, a territory of ally Denmark, and imposed tariffs on any other allies who stood in his way.

• That was one of several increasingly existential crises for NATO that have erupted, then died down, over Trump's two terms.

Friction point: Taken together, Greenland — and now Iran — have forced European leaders to confront the need for a security architecture that could stand without the American pillar.

• Even if they stick to their newly robust spending commitments, it'd take several years to be able to "defend and thereby deter Russia," and perhaps a decade to fully replace the U.S., says Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO.

"The big question is: Let's say there is an actual armed attack on NATO. Would there be a political decision [by Trump] to come to the aid of that ally?" Daalder wonders.

• Trump has given ample reason to suspect the answer might be no.
• For the allies who share a border with an expansionist Russia, that's a very worrying prospect.

Zoom in: The Iran war is shaping up as a strategic windfall for Moscow, boosting oil revenues and diverting Western attention.

• Russian officials and state media are openly reveling in Trump's attacks on the alliance, casting them as validation of Europe's weakness and self-sabotage.

What to watch: While Trump is once again dangling a NATO departure, a 2023 law states that no president can withdraw without Congress. But courts could well side with Trump if he decided to test it, Daalder says.

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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has asked Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George to leave his post, a Defense official confirmed to Axios' Dave Lawler and Colin Demarest.

• Why it matters: George is the Army's most senior general, the top uniformed officer, and was fired in wartime. He's the latest of more than a dozen generals and admirals to be removed by Hegseth over the past year.

Gen. Christopher LaNeve, formerly Hegseth's top military aide, will be acting Army chief of staff.

• The ouster, first reported by CBS, resulted from Hegseth's long-running grievances with the Army and battles over personnel, the N.Y. Times reports.

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NASA's Artemis II astronauts are hurtling toward the Moon — and next week's lunar flyby will be the first in generations.

• Why it matters: The space agency says the mission could lay the groundwork for a Moon base and sustained lunar living.

🌕 The spacecraft fired its engines last night for a course that'll put it into lunar orbit sometime Monday.

• It's the first time humans have been Moon-bound since the Apollo program half a century ago.

Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen said: "Humanity has once again shown what we are capable of."

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To see where tech policy is going in the U.S., look west: California is escalating its push to regulate AI across multiple fronts, Axios' Ashley Gold reports.

Why it matters: California's multi-pronged approach makes it likely that AI companies in the U.S. will treat the state's rules as a de facto national standard, even as the White House moves to rein in state regulation.

• It follows a familiar pattern: California acts first, companies adapt to keep doing business there and Congress dithers, eventually yielding to states because of gridlock.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed an AI executive order this week as state legislators advance a number of AI bills and consider other regulatory avenues for AI.

• It aims to "raise the bar for AI companies seeking to do business with the state," per the announcement, and makes procurement standards stronger.

The state will develop a plan for contracting best practices requiring companies to explain their policies on distribution of illegal content, model bias and violation of civil rights and free speech.

• In a clear shot at the Pentagon-Anthropic dispute, the order also enables California to "separate the procurement authorization process from the federal government's if needed," the release says.

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The idea of breaking up big health insurance companies has suddenly entered the political lexicon, even if it faces long odds of ever actually happening, Axios' Caitlin Owens reports.

Why it matters: Politicians across the ideological spectrum are increasingly convinced that those owning multiple parts of the health care system have a big role in making medical costs unaffordable.

• This new crowd of insurance trustbusters has strong name recognition and political power. Think: Mark Cuban, AOC and a bipartisan bunch of high-profile senators.

👀 Breaking up big insurance companies would cause costs to go down by 30-40%, Cuban — who's been beating the "break them up" drum on social media lately — told Caitlin.

• Cuban, who started Cost Plus Drugs as an alternative to pharmacy benefit managers, said he's also tried to break into other parts of the health care system. But the dominant companies have stopped him from being able to compete.
• Breaking the companies up would eliminate "all the money that's going to health insurance companies that isn't going to care itself," he added.

The flip side: The insurer trade group AHIP says health plans operate in fiercely competitive markets.

• Forced breakups could have unintended consequences, like driving more physicians into businesses owned by hospitals or private equity that research has shown raises costs, according to Brown University professor Christopher Whaley.

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President Trump's ballroom project won design approval yesterday, even though an ongoing legal case has halted construction on the site, reports Axios D.C.'s Cuneyt Dil.

• Why it matters: The National Capital Planning Commission's sign-off won't restart construction, but it clears a final procedural hurdle for Trump's fast-tracked, $400 million plans for transforming the White House.

State of play: The commission, stacked with Trump loyalists, approved the project after a barrage of criticisms — including 9,000 pages of public comments that delayed the vote by a month.

• NCPC chair Will Scharf, the White House staff secretary, said that he believes the ballroom in time will be "every bit as much of a national treasure" as the rest of the White House.

⚖️ What we're watching: Earlier this week, U.S. District Judge Richard Leon said Trump is not the "owner" of the White House, and that construction "must stop until Congress authorizes its completion."

• With the NCPC green light, the Trump administration might have a stronger case in court as it seeks to overturn the work stoppage.

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AI will change the way people work but won't replace them en masse, Axios' Eleanor Hawkins writes from new research by MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory.

• Why it matters: This directly pushes back on fear-based narratives coming from some AI leaders and reframes the debate from "when do jobs disappear?" to "how quickly do tasks shift?"

How it works: The researchers identified 11,500 tasks in the Labor Department's database and created multiple instances of each. They were then run through more than 40 AI models using workplace-style prompts.

• Workers in those fields evaluated 17,000+ AI-generated outputs as to whether they were good enough to use without edits.

🧮 By the numbers: In 2024, AI models could complete roughly 50% of text-based tasks at a minimally acceptable level, rising to 65% by 2025.

• At the current pace, AI could handle 80% to 95% of text-based tasks by 2029 — though only at a "good enough" level.

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Bed Bath & Beyond is staging a comeback: physical stores, the return of its iconic coupon and a deal to acquire The Container Store, Bed Bath & Beyond president Amy Sullivan tells Axios' Kelly Tyko.

• The retailer said it closed its acquisition of Kirkland's and signed deals to acquire The Container Store, Elfa and Closet Works, according to a shareholder letter.
• The Container Store's more than 100 locations will be folded into the company's footprint and co-branded with Bed Bath & Beyond.

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