Axios AM

March 26, 2025
๐ซ Happy Wednesday! Smart Brevityโข count: 1,594 words ... 6 mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
Situational awareness: Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem today will visit the El Salvador prison holding Venezuelans deported by the administration. Her three-day swing includes Colombia and Mexico. See the schedule.
- ๐ง Vice President Vance will join Friday's visit to Greenland that had been announced by Second Lady Usha Vance. Vance 1-min. video.
- ๐ Tesla will launch April 10 in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf region's largest market. See the announcement.
1 big thing: Trump's loose-lip legacy
President Trump's downplaying of the #Signalgate scandal as a mere "glitch" is the latest entry in a long-running โ and ever-expanding โ legacy of indifference toward America's secrets, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.
- Why it matters: Even after facing criminal charges in 2023, Trump has never suffered enduring political consequences. That's given his allies confidence that the Atlantic bombshell will blow over.
๐ Zoom in: Look no further than the prosecution Trump faced โ and ultimately survived โ for allegedly retaining classified documents at Mar-a-Lago after he left office.
- The indictment was salacious: Special counsel Jack Smith accused Trump of stashing "national defense information" โ i.e., nuclear secrets โ in non-secure locations throughout his golf club, including a bathroom.
- Trump allegedly showed off "highly confidential" military documents to guests who didn't have security clearances, and then tried to obstruct the government from reclaiming the documents.
Throughout the prosecution, which was dismissed in July 2024 by Judge Aileen Cannon, Trump maintained his innocence and falsely insisted that the Mar-a-Lago documents were his personal property.
- After Trump won the election and returned to the White House, the FBI returned some of the materials it had seized from Mar-a-Lago โ a moment of triumph for a president who never admitted a scintilla of wrongdoing.
๐จ The big picture: National security experts were appalled by Trump's alleged conduct in the Mar-a-Lago case, but the president has been consistent across his two terms in his disregard for intelligence protocols.
- In May 2017, the Washington Post reported that Trump revealed highly classified information to Russia's foreign minister and ambassador inside the Oval Office, sending U.S. officials scrambling to contain the damage.
- In July 2018, Trump publicly sided with Russian President Vladimir Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies in their assessment that Moscow had interfered in the 2016 election.
- In August 2019, Trump tweeted out a surveillance photo of an Iranian launch site that experts suspected was obtained from a classified satellite or drone.

The trend has continued into Trump's second administration, with the careless handling of classified information sometimes compounded by a lack of government experience.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's decision to share sensitive war plans in a Signal group โ let alone one that accidentally included The Atlantic's editor-in-chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, who wrote about it โ is a prime example.
- But it's not an isolated one: Counterintelligence experts were alarmed in February after the CIA sent an unclassified email to the White House containing personal information of all agents hired over the last two years.
Explainer about Signal ... In their own words: The explanations.
2. ๐ช๐บ Vance vs. Europe
The text-message debacle over the U.S. attacks on the Houthis is the latest example that Vice President Vance is the Trump team's chief antagonist of Europe โ both publicly and behind the scenes, Axios' Alex Thompson and Barak Ravid write.
- Why it matters: Vance's private argument against the attacks, included in the thread revealed by The Atlantic, matched his recent pattern of public hawkishness toward European allies.
"I think we are making a mistake," Vance wrote in the Signal group with Cabinet secretaries and senior White House officials, arguing that the Houthis were more Europe's problem than America's.
๐ผ๏ธ The big picture: Vance's combative remarks on issues such as defense spending and censorship have strained the alliance between Europe and the U.S. European diplomats, media and members of various parliaments have zeroed in on the vice president for criticism.
Zoom in: It's unusual for a VP to become such a lightning rod on foreign policy, especially so early in a presidency.
- But the text discussion among U.S. officials before this week's strikes shows the depth of Vance's belief that America gives too much support to Europe โ a continent Vance believes is lethargic and often run by corrupt elites.
- "3 percent of US trade runs through the suez," Vance texted in the chat. "40 percent of European trade does."
๐ The intrigue: Vance's hardline stance on Europe goes beyond even what President Trump advocates.
3. ๐ Economic vibes get worse


The economic vibes have taken a decisive turn for the worse over the last several weeks. The big question now is whether actual activity will follow, Axios' Neil Irwin writes.
- The big picture: This week has brought yet another round of "soft" indicators that show slumping confidence in what lies ahead for the economy amid a fast-changing policy landscape.
๐ฌ Zoom in: The Conference Board's long-running survey of consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month in March, the business research group said yesterday โ reaching below even its level during peak inflation in 2022.
- Consumers' near-term outlook for incomes, business, and labor market conditions fell to the lowest in 12 years, and far below the threshold that usually signals a looming recession.
- The deterioration was sharpest among older Americans.
Separately, an index that measures small business owners' confidence, published by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce this morning, fell in the first quarter to about its level of a year ago, erasing a post-election surge.
๐ฅ Reality check: Confidence surveys have been a flawed predictor of actual economic activity in the last few years.
- For much of the Biden administration, public opinion about the economy was steeply negative โ even as consumers kept spending and business kept hiring.
4. ๐ฎ Axios What's Next: AI's great race

Chris Lehane โย OpenAI's chief global affairs officer โย told Axios' Ina Fried at our annual What's Next Summit that the winner of the AI race will make decisions that could set industry norms and influence global AI policy for years to come.
- "Whoever ends up winning ends up building the AI rails for the world," Lehane said.
Why it matters: Lehane says beating China in the AI race is so important that we should not tie the hands of AI makers by limiting their use of data under copyright laws that China won't observe.
- "That is a bit of a zero-sum game. And do you want the world built on autocratic, authoritarian AI, where there's not going to be any copyright, there's not going to be any fair use ... you're not going to have any freedoms?" Keep reading.
๐ก More summit moments: D.C. plots future beyond federal jobs ... Sen. Tim Scott's election dream ... Full summit video.
5. โ๏ธ Renewable energy surges globally


Renewable energy capacity around the world surged last year โ particularly in the U.S. and China, Axios' Andrew Freedman writes.
- Why it matters: New data from the International Renewable Energy Agency shows wind, solar, geothermal, and hydroelectric are growing at far faster rates than traditional power sources such as coal and natural gas.
๐งฎ By the numbers: Solar and wind energy dominated, with solar increasing by 32.2% and wind energy by 11.1%.
- The U.S. saw a 54% increase in solar capacity.
6. ๐ณ๏ธ Trump's sweeping election order

President Trump signed an executive order yesterday to make sweeping changes to federal elections that include a proof of citizenship requirement and a provision designed to prevent states from counting mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day, Axios' Rebecca Falconer and Jeremy Duda write.
- Why it matters: Trump said on Truth Social that his administration believes this is "the farthest-reaching executive action taken in the history" of the U.S. to "Secure our Elections."
The order threatens to cut federal funding from states that don't comply.
- It's likely to face legal challenges, with Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold's (D) among those already calling the order "unlawful."
White House announcement ... Executive Order ... Share this story.
7. ๐ World order: From chess to billiards
Sneak peek: "World affairs have moved from the analogy of a chessboard to that of a billiard table, with nations colliding unpredictably," Richard Stengel โ former editor of TIME, and an under secretary of State in the Obama administration โ writes for Vanity Fair.
- In "The New End of History: Donald Trump's New World Order Is the Old World Order," Stengel says President Trump's "erratic transactionalism ... favors dominance over stability โ and loyalty over law. ... This new end of history is the return of humankind's essential, Hobbesian nature: nasty, brutish, competitive, insecure." Keep reading (live at 7 a.m. ET).
๐๏ธ N.Y. Times Quotation of the Day: "The international order is undergoing changes of a magnitude not seen since 1945," Kaja Kallas, the top EU diplomat, said last week, echoing a line from the bloc's defense preparedness plan, aimed at helping Europe become more militarily independent. (Gift link)
8. ๐ญ 1 fun thing: Broadway plays boom


The highest-grossing show on Broadway isn't a musical โ it's a play. "Good Night, and Good Luck" โ starring George Clooney, and still in previews โ brought in a staggering $3.3 million last week, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.
- It smashed the previous record for a play ($2.8 million) set just last week by "Othello," starring Denzel Washington and Jake Gyllenhaal.
Why it matters: Unusually for Broadway, all three of the hottest draws โ the shows with the highest ticket price โ are plays, not musicals. They all star Oscar-winning actors.
- Keep reading ... Watch the trailer for "Good Night, and Good Luck."
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