The economic fallout from five weeks of effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is just beginning, Axios Macro co-authors Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin write.

• The gloomiest forecasts for the U.S. economy from the war may not come to pass, assuming the ceasefire works. But shortages and price shocks will continue to pinch the world for months.

Zoom out: The risks are many, and not easily solved.

1. 🚢 The backlog of stranded ships could take weeks to clear even under ideal circumstances.
2. 🏗️ Infrastructure damage from attacks in recent weeks has resulted in energy shortages across the globe and could take years to repair.
3. 🛢️ It'll take time to restart production at facilities that curtailed output.
4. ⚠️ There are real prospects that Iran will now effectively tax shipments through the strait indefinitely. That would create a new constraint on the global supply of oil and other commodities that didn't exist before the war.

📈 Stunning stat: Even if the strait fully reopened right now, oil prices will still be 20% higher in coming years than before the war, David Byrns, portfolio manager for American Century Investments, tells Axios Future of Energy author Amy Harder.

💊 What to watch: Early evidence of the war's lingering impact may show up in pharmaceutical prices, Axios' Peter Sullivan writes.

• Generic medicines manufactured in India, which can require temperature controls and other complex handling, often fly through Middle East hubs, including Dubai.

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OpenAI is finalizing a model with advanced cybersecurity capabilities that it plans to release only to a small set of companies, similar to Anthropic's limited rollout of Mythos, a source told Axios Future of Cybersecurity author Sam Sabin.

• Why it matters: Model-makers are now so worried about the havoc their own tools could cause that they're reluctant to release them into the wild. Keep reading.

📈 Scoop: OpenAI's ad muscle

OpenAI expects to generate $2.5 billion in ad revenue this year and $100 billion by 2030, Axios' Ina Fried reports from presentations to investors.

• Why it matters: OpenAI is trying to convince investors and potential backers of a future IPO that multiple revenue streams will scale alongside the company's ever-increasing spending on compute.

📊 OpenAI told investors to expect this year's $2.5 billion in ad revenue to grow to $11 billion in 2027, $25 billion in 2028 and $53 billion by 2029.

• The projections assume OpenAI's products reach 2.75 billion weekly users by 2030 and capture a share of the global ad market dominated by Google, Amazon and TikTok.

🔎 Between the lines: Chatbot ads could be unusually lucrative because users volunteer exactly what they want.

• But ads risk upending one of the key selling points of AI chatbots — that they work for the users, not for the advertiser.

Keep reading.

A West Texas revolt is erasing hundreds of miles of President Trump's planned border wall, Axios' Brittany Gibson reports.

• Why it matters: The opposition in the Big Bend sector, which includes 517 miles of rugged border along the Rio Grande, is against the physical steel wall, not border security in general.

The intrigue: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) was assured by Border Patrol chief Mike Banks that there wouldn't be a physical wall in Big Bend National Park or Big Bend Ranch State Park, a source familiar with the talks told Axios.

• As of mid-February, just 35.9 miles of new border wall construction have been finished across the southern border.

Read the story.

Megaspending on AI companies drove venture-capital investments to a five-year high in Q1, Axios Pro Deals' Ryan Lawler writes.

• By the numbers: Companies raised more than $208 billion from venture capitalists in the first three months of 2026, more than doubling from a year earlier, per PitchBook data.

AI megarounds drove that total, including xAI's $20 billion raise in January and $30 billion raised by Anthropic in February.

• Get Axios Pro Deals to get smarter, faster on big investments.

House Democratic leadership took a step yesterday toward embracing a long-shot push to remove President Trump from office through the 25th Amendment, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said in a letter to colleagues that Judiciary Committee ranking member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) will host a virtual briefing Friday afternoon "on Trump administration accountability and the 25th Amendment."

Between the lines: Congressional Democrats largely repudiated the notion of pursuing long-shot maneuvers, like impeachment or the 25th Amendment, a year ago.

• A centrist House Democrat grumbled about the new efforts: "I personally think it's a fool's errand."
• But Democratic lawmakers don't want to get an earful from the party faithful for being insufficiently combative.

Trump's declaration that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if the Iranian regime did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz led to an eruption of calls from Democratic lawmakers for his removal.

• More than 85 House Democrats, along with a pair of Democratic senators, called for Trump to be impeached or for Vice President Vance and the Cabinet to convene and remove Trump by invoking the 25th Amendment.

See a list of Dems calling for Trump's impeachment or removal.

The co-founders of Kalshi, the prediction market giant, say in today's episode of "The Axios Show" that they're playing by the rules and benefiting society — even if a growing number of politicians and anti-gambling activists disagree.

• Why it matters: Kalshi has become big business. Last month, the exchange took in nearly $13 billion in bets on everything from sports to elections to where Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get married.

🔮 Watch the episode on YouTube ... Extended interview.

Steve Ubl — president and CEO of PhRMA, the pharmaceutical industry's top trade group — will step down at the end of the year, Axios' Caitlin Owens reports.

• Why it matters: Ubl led PhRMA, one of the nation's most powerful lobbying groups, through a tumultuous decade in which lowering prescription drug prices was a top political priority for both parties.

Ubl's tenure included Democrats' passage of a law enabling Medicare to directly negotiate drug prices with manufacturers, over the industry's vehement objections.

• But the version of Medicare negotiations that became law was ultimately much less aggressive than initial proposals, a silver lining for the industry.
• Since then, the industry has navigated multiple risks posed by the Trump administration, including discredited theories about the safety of vaccines, instability at the FDA, and the administration's push to lower U.S. drug prices relative to other developed countries.

Read the announcement.

Ticket prices for Sunday's Washington Capitals game have surged to all-time highs — fueled by retirement buzz that it may be local legend Alex Ovechkin's final home appearance, Axios D.C.'s Anna Spiegel writes.

• Ovechkin's five-year, $47.5M contract expires after this season, his 21st in Washington.

Why it matters: Ovi isn't just a hockey icon — he's D.C.'s biggest sports star in a generation.

💰 By the numbers: Sunday's Caps–Penguins matchup is on track to be the most expensive home game in team history, per TickPick.

• Average tickets on the third-party platform are $377 — about 269% higher than the typical $102 home game.
• Even nosebleeds start north of $220.

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