1 big thing: U.S. economy sets record amid worries
Today marks the longest period the U.S. economy has gone without a recession, edging past the economic cycle that ended when the dot-com bubble burst, Axios markets reporter Courtenay Brown writes.
- Why it matters: This milestone comes at one of the more pessimistic moments in the last decade.
- Economists are warning that a significant slowdown in growth, and maybe a recession, is coming.
- The reasons include trade tensions and slumping growth in other economies across the globe.
Signs of over-exuberance have ended the past three economic cycles, says Michael Pearce, an economist at Capital Economics.
- "The interesting thing about this expansion is that it's been very slow and we've really not seen a big buildup of excesses," Pearce said.
- Inflation has been notably muted in the face of a near 50-year low unemployment rate, and strong job creation.
- And low interest rates that helped prop up the economy in the past decade may be even lower in coming months.
The bottom line: As people worry that a recession is around the corner simply because there hasn’t been a recession in a while, that could weigh on consumer and business confidence — and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.