Economic pain is mounting quickly for America's small businesses, raising the chances of a Main Street recession despite an AI-powered growth boom, Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.

Why it matters: The fortunes of mom-and-pop businesses are diverging from their larger counterparts.

• The dynamic isn't new, but the divide is getting bigger, faster. It exposes a vulnerability for President Trump's economic agenda, which top officials have said is focused on reigniting Main Street businesses.

🖼️ The big picture: Larger businesses have been able to adapt to a tough economic backdrop — historic tariffs, high interest rates and a more cautious consumer — in ways far more challenging for small companies with fewer resources.

• "They can set prices, they can change suppliers, they can hire contractors instead of permanent employees in a more sophisticated way," says ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. "They have more tools in the toolbox."

Zoom in: The private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November, according to payroll processor ADP. Small firms — those with fewer than 50 employees — accounted for all the losses.

• Those businesses reported a net loss of 120,000 jobs, the largest number small businesses have cut since the onset of the pandemic. Larger businesses grew, but not enough to offset the cuts elsewhere.

🥊 Reality check: The Trump administration shrugged off the ADP data that indicated a hiring bust. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that the cuts were due to factors unrelated to tariffs, like immigration crackdowns.

• But ADP had earlier told reporters that small businesses generally had less demand for workers, not that staff weren't available for hire.

Share this story.

President Trump, staring down criticism that he's prioritized global issues over pocketbook worries, next week will kick off a year of heavy stateside travel that's focused on selling his economic agenda ahead of the midterms, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports.

Why it matters: Trump's approval rating has sunk as he has pursued peace deals around the globe and "narco-terrorists" in the Caribbean, while Americans have become more pessimistic about affording a better life.

• With Republicans in danger of losing control of the House next November, Trump needs to be a lift — not a drag — in tough districts if the GOP is to defy powerful historic trends and keep its majority.

Trump's new push begins Tuesday in the vital battleground of northeastern Pennsylvania.

• We're told the president will aggressively push back against criticism over the cost of everyday essentials — an issue that helped propel him to victory over Kamala Harris last year.

The president's growing irritation over how voters view his economic agenda has been bubbling over in his public remarks. He has repeatedly insisted prices are coming down, and has called Democrats' focus on affordability a "hoax" and "con job."

• Trump is expected to use Tuesday's event to highlight what he's done to help the economy during his second term in office. But aides privately acknowledge that there's more to be done to address cost-of-living concerns.

Share this story.

Young Americans say the country is heading down a dark road and fear their futures are unstable, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a Harvard Youth Poll out this morning.

• Why it matters: Financial insecurity, intense political polarization and the rise of AI are eroding Gen Z's faith in their economic prospects and public institutions overall.

A majority of respondents (57%) say the country is headed in the wrong direction — a six-point rise from last year.

• Young adults are far more worried about the country's future now than they were during the depths of the Great Recession in 2009, when the economy was truly cooked.
• At that time, only 37% of respondents said the U.S. was on the wrong track — 20 points less than this year.

🎨 The big picture: Economic insecurity is playing a big role here.

• Even though the overall economy is holding up, young adults are being hit hard by some of its biggest weaknesses — particularly, a stagnant job market, changes brought by AI and sky-high housing prices.

💥 What to watch: For the first time, the Harvard poll asked young adults whether political violence is ever acceptable. 39% said it is under at least one circumstance.

• Share this story ... Explore the data.

The Trump administration is making headway on the key first step toward mass deportations:

• ICE arrests have soared since the start of President Trump's second term, Axios' Brittany Gibson writes from data released this week.

Why it matters: This year's arrest pace is well short of the administration's goal of 3,000 a day. But President Trump has moved the numbers way up compared to former President Biden.

• ICE's main unit for removing immigration law violators — Enforcement and Removal Operations — has been arresting roughly 1,100 people per day in recent weeks, according to government data released via a Freedom of Information Act request from the Deportation Data Project.

👓 Between the lines: Fueling the larger arrest numbers is ICE's decision to also target people without criminal convictions or charges.

• Under President Biden, people who hadn't committed another crime weren't prioritized for arrest and deportation. Agents now have a broader mandate and have been encouraged to make more "collateral arrests."

Share this story.

Antisemitism in the U.S. has hardened into a "durable" new normal as fewer Americans feel any obligation to push back, according to a sweeping new survey shared first with Axios' Russell Contreras.

• Why it matters: The findings suggest the spike in antisemitism that began in 2023 is not a passing wave but a plateau.

🧮 By the numbers: Around 3 in 5 U.S. adults think antisemitism is a minor problem or not a problem at all, the 2025 Antisemitism Landscape Survey released this morning by the Blue Square Alliance Against Hate found.

• About 27% of those polled believe Jews "cause problems in the world," up from 19% in 2023.

Keep reading.

Another abrupt departure of a high-ranking FDA official is raising alarm about a brain drain that could mean new drugs take longer to reach the public, Axios Vitals co-author Peter Sullivan writes.

• Why it matters: Biotech and pharmaceutical companies rely on the FDA for dependable guidance as they spend huge sums developing new treatments. The American public needs the agency to ensure treatments are safe and effective.

🔬 Zoom in: The latest uproar surrounds the unexpected departure of Richard Pazdur, a respected oncologist who just three weeks ago became the fourth person to direct the FDA's drug center this year.

• Pazdur's appointment had helped calm nerves to some degree within industry. Now, executives are publicly questioning the agency's direction.

John Crowley, CEO of the industry group the Biotechnology Innovation Organization, said the FDA is at a "tipping point."

• "This constant turmoil is undermining America's leadership in biotechnology, creating unprecedented regulatory instability and unpredictability, and risks ceding this critical sector to China."

Share this story.

MOJAVE, Calif. — Northrop Grumman revealed Project Talon, a robo-wingman expected to fly next year, to a select few reporters gathered in the California desert yesterday, Axios Future of Defense author Colin Demarest writes.

• Why it matters: Only one of the drones exists today. But it's designed to be manufactured en masse relatively cheaply, which should appeal to the Pentagon.

The big picture: Defense departments worldwide are clamoring for drones of all sizes, including ones big enough and smart enough to fly alongside manned aircraft, like the F-22, F-35 and future F-47.

• Both the U.S. Air Force and Navy have asked the industry for these so-called collaborative combat aircraft, or CCA.

Keep reading.

Google is out this morning with its annual "Year in Search" lists — revealing the top trending news, culture and tech moments that captured our attention in 2025.

The top 10 trending U.S. searches:

1. Charlie Kirk
2. KPop Demon Hunters
3. Labubu
4. iPhone 17
5. One Big Beautiful Bill Act
6. Zohran Mamdani
7. DeepSeek
8. Government shutdown
9. FIFA Club World Cup
10. Tariffs

More Google Trends data.