The Iran conflict has entered a Cold War-like phase of financial sanctions, gunboat interdictions and talks about having talks, Axios' Marc Caputo and Barak Ravid write.

• Why it matters: The conflict has settled into a grinding stalemate, all but assuring higher energy prices for months — and leaving President Trump with the costs of the war but little of the political upside of ending it.

Several U.S. officials told Axios they're concerned about America getting drawn into a frozen conflict of no war and no deal.

• In this scenario, the U.S. would have to keep its forces in the region for many more months. The Strait of Hormuz would stay closed. The U.S. blockade would remain, and both sides would continue waiting for the other to blink or fire first.
• With the midterms now six months away, "a frozen conflict is the worst thing for Trump politically and economically," a source close to the president said.

👀 Inside the room: President Trump is vacillating between launching new military strikes and waiting to see whether his "maximum pressure" sanctions make Iran more inclined to negotiate an end to its nuclear weapons program, according to five advisers who have spoken with him.

• "All [Iran's leaders] understand is bombs," Trump recently told one adviser, who relayed the comment to Axios.
• "I would describe him as frustrated but realistic," the adviser said. "He doesn't want to use force. But he's not backing down."

Some of Trump's senior advisers want him to maintain the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for now — and impose more economic sanctions to pressure the Iranian regime — before going back to bombing.

• Trump is also consulting with hawks outside the administration, including Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen, retired Army Gen. Jack Keane and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). All are advising Trump to take some kind of military action to try to break the deadlock.

🔎 Zoom in: Trump discussed the Iranian proposal with his national security team yesterday. Iran offered to negotiate a side deal to open the Strait of Hormuz in return for the U.S. dropping its blockade of ships coming and going from Iran.

• A U.S. official and two other sources briefed on the meeting said no decisions were made.
• One source said Trump didn't seem inclined to accept Iran's proposal because it would postpone talks over that nation's nuclear program — the elimination of which has been Trump's chief reason for attacking Iran.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has ramped up the maximum pressure sanctions campaign targeting financial institutions, shipping companies and even "teapot" refiners in China that process sanctioned Iranian oil.

• "This is maximum pressure everywhere and from all angles," a senior administration official said. "That could mean military action, too. It might not. It's up to the president."

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It's not just Congress. The corner office is graying, too, with the average American CEO now 61, up from around 51 in 2000, Axios' Emily Peck writes.

• Why it matters: A new study finds that older leaders tend to manage businesses that grow more slowly and are less likely to radically innovate. But they also appear to be more sought after in uncertain economic times.

💡 One finding from the database of more than 50,000 leaders: Smaller, privately held companies are more likely to hire older leaders.

• Bigger corporations are more able to promote from within — as Apple just did, replacing 65-year-old Tim Cook with 50-year-old John Ternus, starting Sept. 1.
• Leaders at the biggest companies (S&P 500 CEOs) are a bit younger, 58.5 on average in 2023, Bloomberg notes — up from 56 in 2000.

👀 The intrigue: This trend isn't simply a matter of leaders sticking around longer. The average age of a CEO when they nab the job rose to 55 from around 47.

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This timeline emerged yesterday from new court filings on Saturday's shooting at the White House correspondents' dinner:

• April 6: Cole Allen, the suspected gunman, reserved a room at the Washington Hilton, the dinner venue.
• April 21-24: He traveled by train from L.A. to Chicago, then Chicago to D.C., checking into the hotel the day before the event with a reservation for the weekend.
• Shortly before the attack: Allen scheduled an email to auto-send to family and a former employer, with an attached "Apology and Explanation." He referred to himself as the "Friendly Federal Assassin."
• Night of the dinner: About 40 minutes after President Trump arrived, Allen "ran through the magnetometer holding a long gun. As he did so, U.S. Secret Service personnel assigned to the checkpoint heard a loud gunshot."
• The response: A Secret Service agent — struck in the chest but protected by a bulletproof vest — returned fire multiple times. Allen "fell to the ground and suffered minor injuries but was not shot."
• The charges: Allen, who appeared in court yesterday, faces three federal counts: attempting to assassinate the president, transporting a firearm across state lines with intent to commit a felony, and discharging a firearm during a crime of violence. He faces up to life in prison if convicted of the assassination count alone.

Read the FBI affidavit.

Stunning stat via Axios' Emily Peck: Americans feel worse off financially than at any point in the past 25 years, according to Gallup polling out this morning.

• 55% of respondents said their financial situation is getting worse — the highest since 2001, topping levels seen during the pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis.
• This is the fifth consecutive year that more Americans say their finances are worsening rather than improving.

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OpenAI's revised pact with Microsoft — its first major investor — enables a likely expansion with Amazon and a bigger push into enterprise, Axios' Ina Fried writes.

• Why it matters: OpenAI is increasingly focused on business revenue, something made significantly easier if it can offer its services via whichever cloud its potential customers already use.

A rewritten deal ends Microsoft's exclusive rights to sell OpenAI's models, caps Microsoft's cut of OpenAI revenue and scraps a controversial provision that would have changed the companies' business relationship once AGI was achieved.

• Go deeper: What Microsoft and OpenAI get in the deal.

The carbon removal industry is reframing its pitch to win support in the Trump era by focusing on energy dominance over climate change, Axios national energy correspondent Amy Harder writes.

• Why it matters: Billions of dollars have already flowed into a sector built to fight global warming.

The shift was on display when two major Biden-era projects got the green light from Trump's Energy Department earlier this month.

• "Carbon removal can be the next prosperous and competitive American industry," said Giana Amador, founding executive director of the Carbon Removal Alliance, a trade group launched in 2023 to represent the nascent sector.

Keep reading ... Get Axios Future of Energy.

A controversial proposal in California to temporarily increase taxes on billionaires has enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot, a labor union backing the measure says.

• The proposal would impose a one-time, 5% tax on the net worth of individuals worth more than $1 billion living in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026. Real estate, pensions and retirement accounts are excluded.

The goal is to generate $100 billion in revenue, which would largely be used to offset federal funding cuts to healthcare for low-income people.

• Mainstream Democrats, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, oppose the tax because they fear it will drive away the wealthy and hurt the state's economy.

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King Charles III landed in D.C. yesterday with Queen Camilla for his first U.S. state visit as monarch, timed to America's 250th birthday, Axios D.C.'s Anna Spiegel writes.

• 🐝 Their majesties had tea in the White House Green Room with President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump before touring the new beehive (pictured below) on the South Lawn.
• 🌷 They also attended a garden party at the British ambassador's residence.

Today's schedule: Trump and King Charles hold a bilateral meeting in the Oval Office.

• 3 p.m. ET: The king addresses a joint session of Congress, stressing "reconciliation and renewal." (Preview)
• 8 p.m.: The day wraps with a White House state dinner in the East Room.

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