Republicans are getting crushed in scores of state and local races, raising deep concerns about a deflated base refusing to show up to vote even in the most pro-Trump areas, Axios' Alex Isenstadt reports.

• Why it matters: The numbers are startling. In race after race, Democrats are outpacing their 2024 performance by double digits, a clear sign of a yawning GOP enthusiasm gap.

🧮 By the numbers: Democrats have outperformed former Vice President Harris' 2024 numbers by an average of 10.5 percentage points in the 20 state legislative districts that've held special elections this year.

• Democratic candidates outperformed Harris by even more — an average of 13.9 points — in the 67 state House and Senate races last year, according to The Downballot, which tracks state-level and congressional campaigns.

Republicans' internal data aligns with polling showing declining support for GOP candidates.

• Many Republicans trace their troubles to Trump not being on the ballot this year or in 2028.
• But strategists acknowledge that some of his actions — including the administration's reluctance to release more of the Epstein files — have turned off parts of his MAGA base, while energizing Democrats and anti-GOP independents.
• Polls have shown widespread dissatisfaction with Trump's immigration crackdown and with how he's handling the economy.

🔎 Zoom in: Since the start of the year, Republicans have suffered double-digit drop-offs from Trump's 2024 performance in state legislative elections in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, northern and central Virginia, New York City, east-central Minnesota, and southeastern Connecticut.

• A GOP operative told Axios: "While it is tempting for many in our party to wish away these results, the pattern is clear that there is at least a current 10-point Democratic over-performance from Trump 2024 — and it's built on a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base."

🥊 Reality check: Some Republicans caution against reading too much into state and local elections, arguing they often don't reflect national trends.

• They note that Trump's cash-flush political operation didn't focus on turning out the president's supporters in any of the recent elections — something it'll do for House and Senate elections this November.
• They also point out that Trump plans to hit the trail aggressively.

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Trump resistance rises: You see it with Congress, the courts, corporations ... and even a few Republicans.

• Watch Jim & me here.

As the Pentagon and Anthropic wage an ugly and potentially costly battle, three other leading AI labs are also negotiating with the department — and deliberating internally — about the terms under which they'll let the military use their models, Axios' Dave Lawler and Maria Curi write.

• Why it matters: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wants to integrate AI into everything the military does more quickly and effectively than adversaries like China.

Hegseth is insisting AI firms give unrestricted access to their models with no questions asked — and showing he's willing to play hardball to force their hands.

• The Pentagon is threatening to sever its contract with Anthropic and declare the company a "supply chain risk" if it's unwilling to lift certain restrictions on its model, Claude.
• The military's use of it in the Nicolás Maduro raid deepened tensions.

🔬 Zoom in: Claude is the only model available in the military's classified systems through Anthropic's partnership with Palantir.

• Three other models — OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google's Gemini and xAI's Grok — are available in unclassified systems.
• Negotiations to bring those companies into the classified domain are now more urgent as the Pentagon ponders how to replace Claude if necessary — a process a senior official conceded would be massively disruptive.
• One acknowledged that the fight with Anthropic was a useful way to set the tone for negotiations with the other three.

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Four years after Russia's invasion, Europe has quietly replaced the United States as the engine of Ukraine's survival, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

• Why it matters: President Trump and his allies have long insisted that Europe — not Washington — should shoulder the cost of the continent's largest land war since World War II.

In 2025, European governments and institutions answered that call — surging military aid by 67% and financial and humanitarian support by 59%, according to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker.

• Over the same period, U.S. aid effectively ground to a halt.

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President Trump convened his top advisers yesterday for a meeting on the crisis with Iran, two U.S. officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid.

• Trump was briefed on the nuclear talks held earlier this week in Geneva and the group discussed next steps.

Behind the scenes: Trump's envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior officials attended the meeting.

• One U.S. official said the Iranians need to come back by the end of the month with steps that address the concerns the U.S. presented in Geneva about their nuclear program.
• A second U.S. official expressed deep skepticism and said the talks in Geneva were "a nothing-burger."

⚓ What to watch: U.S. officials say the arrival of the USS Ford aircraft carrier and its strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean in the coming days will be a key factor in the timing of a possible military campaign against Iran.

• The U.S. is assembling the most air power in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, The Wall Street Journal reports.

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China's unrelenting efforts to catch the U.S. in AI may have claimed its first significant casualty — Hollywood, Axios' Madison Mills and Sara Fischer write.

• Why it matters: Technology good enough to scare even the most seasoned filmmakers is prompting a legal fight that's only the opening salvo in a broader war over intellectual property and market dominance.

Chinese AI models that undercut U.S. rivals on price, speed and market share pose an existential threat to high-cost, high-risk industries like the film business.

• They also ship with fewer safety guardrails, especially around copyrighted material and likeness rights.

🔭 Zoom in: Seedance 2.0, ByteDance's new AI video model, generated a hyperrealistic clip of Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt fighting, prompting alarm from major Hollywood studios.

• Netflix, Paramount, Warner Bros. and Disney sent ByteDance cease-and-desists over the tool.

Stunning stat: Chinese open-source models went from near-zero usage in mid-2024 to about a third of overall AI use by the end of 2025, according to OpenRouter.

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The U.S. Air Force is rolling out a new paint scheme across its executive airlift fleet, including the next-generation Air Force One aircraft, in a color palette of red, white, dark blue and gold.

• The redesign will be applied to the VC-25B — the military designation for the two Boeing 747-8 aircraft that will serve as Air Force One — as well as the Boeing 747 jetliner that Qatar gifted, Reuters reports.

In addition, four modified Boeing 757-200s used to transport the vice president, Cabinet members, members of Congress and other senior government officials will carry the new livery.

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A local dog that slipped away from its owner became a surprise participant in an Olympic cross-country ski race yesterday when he raced down the homestretch.

• NPR identified the dog as Nazgul, a 2-year-old Czechoslovakian wolfdog who lives at a nearby bed-and-breakfast.

Nazgul's owner told NPR: "He was crying this morning more than normal because he was seeing us leaving — and I think he just wanted to follow us. He always looks for people."

• Watch his finish.