Two days before midterms, a stunning Democratic defection rocked Michigan's Senate race after Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) endorsed Republican nominee Mike Rogers — triggering resignations of her top staff and calls for her expulsion from the party.

• Why it matters: Stevens aggravated two Democratic sore spots — divisions over Israel and fears of losing Black voters — in a race that could decide the Senate.

🥊 Between the lines: Nate Silver wrote that if El-Sayed loses, "it will now be much harder to blame his progressivism since people can just blame Haley Stevens instead."

• A N.Y. Times/Siena poll released last night showed El-Sayed leading Rogers by 11 points, 53% to 42%.

The endorsement capped a long-running feud between Stevens, a pro-Israel moderate, and Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive who narrowly defeated her in the primary.

• El-Sayed accused Stevens on Friday of trying to relitigate the primary after she pressed him to more forcefully condemn an outside ad linking U.S. aid to Israel to rising prices.
• Stevens said the ad suggested that Jews "are responsible for America's economic woes."

🔎 Zoom in: Stevens sat with Rogers yesterday at a Black church in Detroit, where she praised his support for Black-owned businesses.

• Stevens later posted a video on X endorsing Rogers. She said El-Sayed told her she was no longer welcome in his campaign.

The intrigue: Stevens privately assured top Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), that she wouldn't endorse Rogers.

• As recently as early yesterday, Stevens told former Michigan Gov. Jim Blanchard she planned to attend church with El-Sayed, according to The Washington Post.
• "This is not the Haley I know," Blanchard told the Post. "This is not the Haley I had dinner with on Friday night."

State of play: Several Stevens staffers resigned shortly after her announcement.

• Her chief of staff, Justin German, said he was "shocked and heartbroken" and that "many members of our team have resigned, including myself."
• Schumer, who backed Stevens during the primary, called the endorsement a "despicable betrayal."

👂 What we're hearing: House Democrats have privately discussed ousting Stevens from their caucus.

• Stevens, who's leaving office in January, was also removed from several House Democratic text chains.

Share this story ... Axios' Andrew Solender, Andrew Pantazi, Alex Isenstadt and Holly Otterbein contributed.

Republicans are burning tens of millions of last-minute ad dollars to try to rescue three red-state senators who they say ignored months of warnings that their campaigns were in danger, Axios' Alex Isenstadt writes.

• Why it matters: Senate races in Kansas, South Carolina and Mississippi are normally GOP layups. This year, Republicans have diverted resources from swing-state battles to defend them.

Frustration with Sens. Roger Marshall (Kan.), Darline Graham (S.C.) and Cindy Hyde-Smith (Miss.) comes amid broader GOP finger-pointing as polls show a nationwide backlash against President Trump.

• A national GOP operative involved in several key Senate races told us: "Democrats may win these seats in a wave ... but not a blue wave. It's the wave of arrogance [and] laziness ... that washed over these GOP incumbents and made them think they were invincible."

🧮 By the numbers: National Republicans have spent $33 million in Kansas, $21 million in South Carolina and $2.4 million in Mississippi, according to data compiled by campaign finance expert Rob Pyers.

• Trump has also spent valuable campaign time in all three states.

👀 Behind the scenes: Republicans say the three senators ignored warnings to raise more money and build stronger campaign operations.

• The most complaints center on Marshall, who has raised just $7.5 million compared with $19 million for his Democratic opponent, Adam Hamilton.
• Republicans describe Marshall's campaign as overconfident. About a month ago, his team told aides to other GOP senators that the race would be effectively over within 10 days once it released opposition research on Hamilton. It wasn't.

Share this story.

The top 20 donors have poured about $2 billion into federal races for this year's midterm elections, The New York Times' Matt Zdun and Teddy Schleifer write.

• That's 15% of all the money that will be spent on ads this cycle.

Elon Musk ($446 million) towers over every other midterm donor, contributing nearly three times as much as the next-biggest donor.

• That figure excludes tens of millions in additional contributions made after Oct. 14 or to groups that don't report to the FEC.

🔬 Zoom in: The tech industry is flexing its political muscle with venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz and its founders contributing $116 million, overwhelmingly to Republican causes, including super PACs pushing AI- and crypto-friendly policies.

• OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman and his wife have also poured money into a pro-AI super PAC, though they've since distanced themselves from the group.
• On the Democratic side, tech investor Reid Hoffman has spent nearly $17 million backing Texas Senate candidate James Talarico.

Top 20 (via X) ... Keep reading (gift link).

In the final set of New York Times/Siena polls before tomorrow's election, Democrats are ahead in all seven battleground states likely to decide the Senate.

• Since a September poll, Democrats gained in six of the states (Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas) and lost ground in Alaska.

🧮 By the numbers: Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican rival Mike Rogers by 11 points.

• Texas Democrat James Talarico has a 7-point lead over state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
• Democratic candidates also lead in Maine, Ohio and Kansas, and narrowly in Alaska — all states with incumbent Republican senators. The race in Iowa is effectively tied.

Between the lines: In six of the seven states (every one but Maine), the Democratic Senate candidate was viewed more favorably than the Republican.

• To take control of the Senate, Democrats have to hold every seat they have and flip at least four Republican-held seats. If these polls are right, they win.

NYT gift link ... More data.

President Trump had a candid phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Saturday about the state of U.S. negotiations with Iran and how quickly to return to combat, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.

• Why it matters: The sources said Netanyahu is pressing Trump to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections tomorrow. But Trump, for now, wants to let negotiations play out — a strategy Netanyahu is concerned about.

The Israeli source said the call was "tough," while the U.S. source described it as "direct."

• Trump is pursuing dual tracks — trying to reach a deal to restart peace talks while also preparing for a possible resumption of major combat operations after the midterms.
• Trump told reporters on Saturday that negotiations with Iran are "going fine" and noted he is not "in much of a hurry."

Share this story.

Soaring health insurance costs — rising at their fastest pace in 20 years — are eating into the money companies have to spend on pay raises, Axios Macro co-author Neil Irwin writes from federal data.

• Why it matters: The data helps explain why wage growth remains weak despite a relatively strong job market. Health insurance costs rose more than twice as fast as wages over the last year.

🩺 Zoom in: Total spending on employee pay and benefits is rising at roughly the same pace as last year, with a bigger share going to health insurance.

• Companies can deal with rising insurance costs by cutting benefits, charging employees more or accepting lower profits. Or they can hold down pay raises, which the new data suggests they're doing.

Share this story.

More voters say they're dissatisfied (51%) with their personal financial situation than satisfied (49%) — a first in 30+ years of NBC News polling on the question.

• Even during the Great Recession, more voters were satisfied than dissatisfied.

📺 Sneak peek: Here's a first look at Fox News' new state-of-the-art control room at the network's headquarters in Midtown Manhattan, which'll be used tomorrow night as Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum lead Democracy 2026 midterm coverage.

• I'm told viewers will see advanced augmented reality graphics, immersive data visualizations and interactive election maps. More on the coverage.

Nearly 60,000 runners from 140+ countries ran the New York City Marathon yesterday.

• It's the 50th year the course snaked through all five boroughs — starting in Staten Island and ending in Central Park. An estimated 2 million spectators lined the streets.

Above: Runners pound Brooklyn's pavement.

• More pics ... Marathon winners.