TAMPA, Fla. — Suspicion is rippling through the MAGA movement, clouding a historic run of conservative victories meant to lay the foundation for President Trump's "Golden Age," Axios' Tal Axelrod and Zachary Basu write.

• Why it matters: Even at the apex of power, MAGA's populist base remains convinced that shadowy forces are working to unravel its every gain. Trump's recent actions — especially his administration's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case — have only hardened those fears.

At Turning Point USA's Student Action Summit in Tampa over the weekend, the mood among Trump's most loyal supporters was celebratory on the surface — but crackling with anxiety underneath.

• Speakers and attendees hailed Trump's dominance over the GOP, the passage of his legislative agenda, and his mass deportation blitz as proof that MAGA is winning.
• But fears of collapse loomed: Even with Democrats in shambles, MAGA's leaders warned that the "Deep State," globalist elites and internal traitors were plotting to undo everything Trump has built.

🔎 Zoom in: The Justice Department's stunning decision to close the Epstein case — and Trump's claim that "nobody cares" about the deceased sex trafficker — dominated discourse at the Turning Point summit.

• For arguably the first time since Trump founded the MAGA movement 10 years ago, activists warned that the president was out of step with his own base.

The scene was remarkable: Trump's most influential allies, gathered at a conference to toast his presidency, openly speculated whether the administration was engaged in a cover-up.

• Top Trump ally Steve Bannon warned that the administration could "lose 10% of the MAGA movement" over the Epstein saga — enough, he said, to cost Republicans 40 House seats in 2026.

🖼️ The big picture: Beyond Epstein, MAGA is constantly on guard against what it sees as creeping betrayals — both from within Trump's orbit and across the broader conservative establishment.

• Ukraine: Trump rolled out a new plan yesterday to funnel arms to Kyiv through European allies — a major shift in policy toward a conflict that MAGA constantly warns could escalate into "World War III."
• Iran: Trump's decision to join Israel in bombing Iran's nuclear facilities last month shattered hopes among MAGA's isolationist wing that he would steer clear of another Middle East entanglement.
• Immigration: Even as Trump ramps up his mass deportations, MAGA hardliners have sounded the alarm over potential "amnesty" for undocumented migrants working in the agriculture and hospitality industries.

🥊 Trump wrote in a lengthy Truth Social post defending Attorney General Pam Bondi on Saturday: "We have a PERFECT Administration, THE TALK OF THE WORLD, and 'selfish people' are trying to hurt it, all over a guy who never dies, Jeffrey Epstein."

The bottom line: For a movement born out of deep skepticism toward domestic and foreign institutions, MAGA's mistrust remains a defining feature — even as it celebrates its greatest political victories.

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President Trump seems to think financial markets are perfectly happy with his tariffs and open to his more aggressive approach, because stocks keep hitting all-time highs.

• But financial markets think there's absolutely no chance Trump will go ahead with the tariffs he's threatened, and therefore ... keep bidding assets up to all-time highs.

Why it matters: The two beliefs can't co-exist for much longer, and the disconnect can't end well, either, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes.

🎨 The big picture: At some point between now and Aug. 1, the U.S. will or will not strike trade deals, and will or will not adjust tariff rates accordingly.

• That may seem a painfully obvious binary, but almost six months of trade war have taught the world it's not quite as simple as it looks.

Trump claims to be a tariff maximalist, a true believer in the power of customs duties to both raise huge sums of revenue and persuade other countries to do what he wants.

• Markets, on the other hand, know — or think they know — how it always ends: Trump backs down, tariffs get cut or eliminated.

🥊 Reality check: This time is different. The tariffs are higher, the language is angrier, and the pushback from the stock and bond markets is mostly missing.

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America's next wave of workers is stuck in a misaligned job market: The career guidance they're getting from their parents, teachers and counselors isn't in sync with their economic reality, Axios' Erica Pandey writes from a new report by the Schultz Family Foundation and HarrisX.

• Why it matters: The disconnect is driving youth unemployment — and leaving many young people uneasy about their place in the workforce.

The big picture: AI is changing the job market faster than ever, but the generation of workers that will be working on and with this new technology doesn't feel ready to do so.

• 46% of young people surveyed say they're unsure about or unprepared for the jobs of the future.
• "That's a real alarm bell," says Rajiv Chandrasekaran, a managing director at the Schultz Family Foundation. "The people who are essential to helping support young people are fundamentally misaligned."

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The New York, Boston and San Francisco areas have the country's highest shares of trips taken on foot or bicycle rather than in a vehicle, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes.

• Transportation data firm StreetLight ranked counties with at least 150 people per square mile by their share of trips taken via walking and biking compared to vehicles in 2023.

🧮 By the numbers: The top five counties are all part of the greater New York metro area, including New York (Manhattan, 59%), the Bronx (44%), Brooklyn (43%), Queens (35%) and New Jersey's Hudson County (28%).

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Former President Obama, speaking to donors at a DNC fundraiser in New Jersey on Friday evening:

• "I think it's going to require a little bit less navel-gazing and a little less whining and being in fetal positions. And it's going to require Democrats to just toughen up."

"Stop looking for the quick fix," Obama added. "Stop looking for the Messiah. You have great candidates running races right now. Support those candidates. Get Mikie [Sherrill] elected [New Jersey] Governor. Win Virginia."

President Trump's plan to deport "millions" of immigrants has reached a critical point: Its success likely will depend not on removing criminals, but on telling people who are in the U.S. legally they're no longer welcome, Axios' Brittany Gibson and Russell Contreras write.

• Why it matters: For all the showy raids and tough talk, the largest targets in Trump's crackdown include immigrants who've had temporary protection to stay in the U.S. — more than 1.2 million people who fled wars, oppression, natural disasters, poverty and more.

Under Joe Biden and previous presidents, the U.S. gave temporary protective status (TPS) to such immigrants, allowing them to stay in the U.S. and work for up to 18 months, which could be extended repeatedly.

• Trump's administration is allowing those TPS deals to expire — for more than 700,000 immigrants from Haiti, Venezuela, Afghanistan, Honduras and Nicaragua so far, with other countries' renewal deadlines looming.
• At the same time, Trump's team is going after what could be hundreds of thousands more immigrants who were given humanitarian "parole" under Biden — a chance to live and work in the U.S. for a certain period.

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A surprising new study finding that AI tools can reduce programmers' productivity is upending assumptions about the technology's world-changing potential, Axios' Scott Rosenberg writes.

• Why it matters: Software runs our civilization, and AI is already transforming the business of making it. But no one really knows whether AI will decimate programming jobs, or turn every coder into a miracle worker, or both.

The study by METR, a nonprofit independent research outfit, looked at experienced programmers working on large, established open-source projects.

• It found that these developers believed that using AI tools helped them perform 20% faster — but they actually worked 19% slower.
• A key factor was that human developers found AI-generated code unreliable and ended up devoting extra time to reviewing, testing and fixing it.

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Ticket prices for the marquee MLB All-Star week events in Atlanta — culminating with tonight's All-Star Game — are the highest in over a decade, Axios' Maxwell Millington writes from Vivid Seats data.

• Why it matters: Increases in regular season attendance, TV viewership and All-Star week demand are positive signs for America's pastime.

🏟️ By the numbers: The average sold price of last night's Home Run Derby is $1,041 and $1,183 for tonight's All-Star Game.

• The next-highest prices for those two events were $604 and $754 in 2023, when the midsummer classic took place in Seattle.

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