The AI industry has entered an era of perpetual upheaval where market leaders are crowned — and dethroned — every few months, Axios AI+ co-author Madison Mills writes.

• Today's hottest company could be eclipsed by summer. The laggard could revolutionize the world.

Why it matters: As AI changes everything, keeping up with who's dominant and who's falling behind is becoming an existential question for investors, big businesses and regular users trying to guarantee their own futures.

• The wrong call can mean spending millions on a model outdated by the end of the quarter — or spending hours learning a tool that's soon obsolete.

🖼️ The big picture: OpenAI looked unstoppable through last fall thanks to its first-mover advantage with ChatGPT.

• Then Google became the AI lab to beat as its Gemini models outperformed OpenAI's, allowing Alphabet to poach ChatGPT users
• By spring, Anthropic had taken control of the AI narrative, overtaking OpenAI in enterprise revenue after its Claude Code tool went viral.
• Now OpenAI is regaining momentum with GPT-5.5 — which quickly ranked among the top models on key benchmarks — and improvements to its Codex tool.

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Scientists vetting powerful AI models say they sometimes describe "in lucid, bullet-pointed detail how to buy raw genetic material, turn it into deadly weapons and deploy them in public spaces," the N.Y. Times reports.

• Some chatbots brainstormed ways to evade detection, and one "outlined a plan to maximize casualties and minimize the chances of being caught," according to transcripts of the conversations.

The models' creators — Anthropic, OpenAI and Google — claim the chats didn't provide enough detail to allow someone to cause harm. One of the scientists said that even with inaccuracies, it still could have significantly helped a malicious actor.

🔎 Behind the scenes: The article's author, deputy investigations editor Gabriel J.X. Dance, was asked in the comments section why The Times was publicizing the risk. "The biological risks of AI are something that the companies are very aware of," he replied, "but talking with my friends and family, it quickly became clear that most consumers aren't."

• Go deeper: "Scientists Fear A.I.'s Capability To Design Biological Weapons" (gift link).

Intel from Axios Middle East expert Barak Ravid that's moving the oil market:

President Trump is slated to receive a briefing on new plans for potential military action in Iran today from CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper.

• Why it matters: The briefing signals Trump is weighing major combat operations — to try to break the negotiating logjam or to deliver a final blow before ending the war.

👀 Behind the scenes: CENTCOM has prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iran (likely including infrastructure targets) in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock, three knowledgeable sources said.

• Another plan expected to be shared with Trump focuses on taking over part of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it to commercial shipping. Such an operation could include ground forces, one source said.
• Another previously discussed option is a special forces operation to secure Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

🪖 State of play: Trump told Barak yesterday that he saw the naval blockade on Iran as "somewhat more effective than the bombing."

• Two sources said Trump sees the blockade as his primary leverage. But he would consider military action if Iran won't cave.

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People in GOP congressional districts tend to drive farther, which could worsen the party's midterm woes as fuel costs soar, Axios' Ben Geman writes from a new Brookings analysis.

• Several swing states — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania — have gas prices above the national average.

🚨 New warning: GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan, a widely cited gas price expert, predicts the national average price at the pump will hit $4.50 a gallon within a week (currently $4.30).

• De Haan warns especially about the Great Lakes region — Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin — where he says retailers are getting "absolutely obliterated" by surging wholesale prices.

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Investors had a clear takeaway from the four Magnificent 7 companies that reported earnings yesterday (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft):

• If you're going to spend big on AI, you'd better have the growth to justify it, Axios' Madison Mills writes.

All four announced plans to increase spending on their AI buildout this year, with outlays that could reach $700 billion. The spending sprees came with different stories, however.

• Alphabet shares surged in after-hours trading on an 81% jump in profits and 40% growth in its Gemini user base over the last quarter.
• Meta shares tumbled after the company raised its spending forecast for this year to as much as $145 billion without a corresponding bump in its revenue outlook.
• Microsoft broke out its AI-specific revenue, saying it's up 123% year over year.
• Amazon's cloud division, a barometer for its AI progress, delivered 28% revenue growth from a year earlier, its fastest pace in more than three years.

💥 Stunning stat: In the first three months of the year, the four companies have already spent $130.65 billion — three times what the Manhattan Project cost to develop atomic bombs, the N.Y. Times notes (gift link).

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⚜️ Bulletin: Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) told Republican House candidates he plans to suspend the state's May 16 primary elections so lawmakers can pass a new congressional map first, the WashPost reports (gift link).

The Supreme Court narrowed a landmark voting law for a nation that has never been more diverse — or more divided over who gets political power, Axios' Russell Contreras and Avery Lotz write.

• Why it matters: The latest ruling lands in a more multiracial, more mobile country that looks nothing like it did in 1965, raising fresh questions about how voting protections apply to a rapidly evolving electorate.

The court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling yesterday effectively narrowed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits racially discriminatory gerrymandering.

• Section 2 helped end Jim Crow laws and expanded voting protections for people of color across the South, particularly for Black Americans.
• A weakened Section 2 means fewer federal guardrails as states redraw political power.

🔎 Zoom out: In 1965, about 85% of Americans were white. Today, that share is closer to 59%, according to census data.

• Latino and Asian American populations have driven much of the nation's growth, reshaping political maps in Texas, Georgia and Arizona.

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Axios' Alex Thompson, who covers Democrats' fight to retake the White House, writes:

A nonprofit that's part of the growing center-left "Abundance" movement is assembling a 2028 policy agenda targeting regulations it believes hurt Democrats' efforts on healthcare, housing, energy and more.

• Why it matters: The Inclusive Abundance Initiative is among several groups on the left that already are battling over what the next Democratic administration will prioritize, and what people it will hire. Keep reading.

🎧 Go deeper: Ezra Klein updates the "Abundance" debate just over a year after he and Derek Thompson published their bestseller. Gift link.

Amazon is discussing a potential reboot of "The Apprentice," President Trump's old show, with Don Jr. as host, The Wall Street Journal reports.

• The company, which would release the show on Prime Video, hasn't yet approached the Trump family about the idea.
• Axios is told Don Jr. knew nothing about the project before the Journal inquired.

Amazon has owned the show's back catalog since it acquired MGM Studios in 2022. The show aired on NBC for 14 seasons with Trump as host.

• Keep reading (gift link).