The number of homicides in major American cities is falling at its quickest pace in decades following huge jumps during the pandemic, Axios' Russell Contreras writes.

• Why it matters: The nation is on track to see one of the lowest levels of violent crimes and homicides since President Obama was in office.

Polls show crime is a top concern ahead of the 2024 election — and it's an issue where Republicans regularly edge Democrats.

• But falling homicide rates could take steam out of the crucial GOP advantage.

🧮 By the numbers: Murders declined by nearly 20% in 204 cities during the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to AH Datalytics, a criminal justice consulting firm.

• At this pace, the murder rate in the U.S. could match its level in 2014 when many cities saw 30-year lows in violent crime and homicides.

🔎 Between the lines: There's no single explanation. Police "are more engaged and departments are working to hire more officers. Community-based crime prevention programs have resumed. And nationwide social unrest has cooled," The Wall Street Journal reports.

Zoom in: Boston has seen a massive (82%!) drop in homicides so far, the most of any major city.

• Philadelphia had a 37% decline in murders. Miami is seeing a 33% fall.
• Houston, where crime was an issue in last year's mayoral election, is facing a 25% drop in homicides.

Reality check: Los Angeles (+9%) and Atlanta (+15%) saw noticeable jumps in homicides in the first three months of 2024 compared to last year.

🗳 The backdrop: Former President Trump is using the fear of crime on the campaign trail and has relentlessly focused on "migrant crime" as illegal border crossings hit record highs.

The intrigue: Democrats are seeing signs that they're closing the gap with the GOP among voters who say which party is better at fighting crime.

• An Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll conducted in partnership with Noticias Telemundo and released this month found that Republicans had only a 4-point edge on dealing with crime.
• Previous polls had them leading Democrats by double digits.

Share this story ... Go deeper: "Jeff-alytics" Substack post by Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics.

On the first day of his first criminal trial, former President Trump alternated between combative, sleepy, engaged and sarcastic.

• People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump is officially underway.

50+ of the first group of 96 potential jurors said they couldn't be impartial, and were immediately excused.

• Around 32 prospective jurors remained by the time the court adjourned at 4:30 p.m. The process will restart this morning.
• One woman in her 30s was heard outside the courtroom saying: "I just couldn't do it."

The N.Y. Times' Maggie Haberman, who was in the 15th-floor courtroom in Lower Manhattan as part of the press pool, told CNN's Kaitlan Collins last night that it's cavernous but "very, very dingy" — "not at all like the federal courthouses that he has become accustomed to."

• "The courtroom in 100 Center Street is really dirty, and it's really evocative of the New York that he grew up in," Haberman added.
• "He is sitting there surrounded by, initially, 96 prospective jurors. And it has a minimizing effect on a guy who projects largeness and strength as often as he can."

Haberman said Trump was "actually on fairly good behavior" compared to some of his earlier court appearances. He "was craning his neck to see" the prospective jurors, and "in some cases trying to make eye contact."

• She reported online that Trump, at times bored and fidgety, "appeared to nod off a few times, his mouth going slack and his head drooping onto his chest."
• Trump later glared at Haberman, who wrote a bestseller about him called "Confidence Man," for several seconds: "He made a pretty specific stare at me and walked out of the room."

Go deeper.

Here's an investment strategy that has consistently outperformed during the 2020s: Bet that the U.S. economy will run hotter than either the stock market or the bond market expects, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.

• Why it matters: That strategy is the exact opposite of how traders made money in the 2010s, which was to bet that the recovery from the global financial crisis would be slower than the market expected.

How it works: Economic weakness caused the Fed to keep interest rates at near-zero levels, in an attempt to spur growth, from 2009 to 2015.

• For most of those seven years, the market expected rates to rise within a year or so. They just never did, because the economy consistently disappointed.
• In that environment, a trader like Gary Stevenson could make a fortune off his prediction for continued economic weakness — by betting on continued low interest rates.

Where it stands: Since the recovery from the pandemic shock started in 2020, the Gary Stevenson trade has been a consistent loser.

• Corporate profits have surged, propelling the stock market to new record highs. The S&P 500 now stands at more than 5,100, a gain of more than 50% from where it was before the pandemic hit in 2020.

Share this story ... Get Axios Markets.

The U.S. intelligence community "risks surprise, intelligence failure, and even an attrition of its importance" unless it embraces AI's capacity to process huge amounts of data, Axios' Ryan Heath writes from a new report from Special Competitive Studies Project, an Eric Schmidt-backed think tank.

• Why it matters: Most current data flood arrives unstructured and from publicly available sources — rather than in carefully drafted "Top Secret" memos.

The tools will "democratize intelligence capabilities," increasing the number of countries and organizations that can credibly attempt to mess with U.S. interests.

• Read the 54-page report ... Share this story.

The Biden administration is snapping up AI talent to boost the Commerce Department's AI Safety Institute, Axios' Maria Curi and Ashley Gold report.

• Why it matters: The institute was created to help Commerce carry out its responsibilities under a landmark executive order.

Zoom in: It's the federal government's main vehicle for developing AI safety standards and testing powerful AI systems.

• Paul Christiano — who previously ran a team at OpenAI — will be head of AI safety, designing and conducting tests of the most cutting-edge models that pose national security concerns.
• Mara Quintero Campbell will be chief of staff and acting COO. She previously ran major projects around the CHIPS and Science Act and the COVID response.

Get Axios Pro Tech Policy — smart, quick intel for your job.

Coral reefs around the world are experiencing a "significant" bleaching event driven by record-breaking ocean heat for the second time in the last decade, Axios' Andrew Freedman and Jacob Knutson write.

Why it matters: At stake is the fate of everything from the health of national economies to the availability of experimental treatments for cancer.

• Warm water corals have narrow temperature ranges in which they can survive.

🌡️ Threat level: The global bleaching event index, which measures the area of the planet's coral coverage affected, has spiked.

• The index reached 54% — and is increasing by about 1% each week
• The record for this metric is 56.1%, set during the longest global bleaching event yet observed, which lasted from 2014-2017. The current event is likely to surpass that.

Keep reading ... Get Axios Generate.

More data.

College basketball megastar Caitlin Clark officially began her pro career when she was selected first overall by the Indiana Fever in last night's WNBA draft, Axios' Sareen Habeshian writes.

• Why it matters: The pick already caused an uptick in interest and ticket prices for the Fever.

⚜️ Angel Reese — the LSU forward who beat Clark in the 2023 title game — was drafted No. 7 overall by the Chicago Sky.

• Share this story.