Axios AM

July 11, 2025
๐๏ธ Happy Friday! Smart Brevityโข count: 1,692 words ... 6ยฝ mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
๐๏ธ Situational awareness: Dan Balz โ the legendary Washington Post political correspondent, and current author of "The Sunday Take" column โ will leave the paper at the end of July after 47 years.
- "I've been extremely fortunate to have had such a marvelous home," Balz, who turns 8-0 next year, tells me. "I've learned from so many good and talented people, and I've seen and done things I never imagined when I started out."
Balz is taking a buyout, as first reported by the media newsletter Breaker. "I want to see how the world looks from a new, different vantage point," Balz told Axios. "Farther out, I hope to keep an association with The Post that would include some writing."
1 big thing: Trump's migrant tightrope
Under pressure from worried farmers and hotel owners, the Trump administration is launching a program to streamline issuing visas for temporary, migrant workers to try to make sure fruits get picked, meat is packed and lodgings are cleaned, Axios' Marc Caputo writes.
- Why it matters: President Trump's immigration crackdown has put his administration between a MAGA rock and a special-interest hard place.
Farmers who rely on noncitizen workers โ who make up as much as 40% of the agricultural labor market โ are howling that Trump's mass deportation program is damaging the labor market, and could therefore threaten the food supply.
- But Trump's MAGA base wants to ratchet up deportations, saying the administration shouldn't allow employers to incentivize illegal immigration by granting "amnesty" to certain noncitizen workers.
๐ Zoom in: Trying to balance those competing interests, the Labor Department has created the Office of Immigration Policy. It's designed to be a red-tape-cutting, one-stop shop to help employers get faster approval for temporary worker visas for noncitizen labor.
- The new office won't help those who are in the country illegally to stay or get work visas โ that's barred by current immigration law, officials said.
New visa recipients would have to have their paperwork completed in their home country before legally migrating to the U.S.
- "This is not amnesty. It's not amnesty lite," a senior administration official told Axios. "No one who is illegally here is being given a pathway to citizenship or residency."
Between the lines: Trump has pushed the strongest, toughest and meanest immigration policies of any modern president. But his recent suggestions of leniency to farmers and key industries that have hired unauthorized workers have left MAGA hardliners suspicious.
- Mark Krikorian, a vocal immigration restrictionist, said: "Any time someone says, 'This isn't an amnesty because ...' then it's an amnesty. If an illegal alien gets to stay, that's an amnesty."
๐ญ Zoom out: Because the agricultural industry has had so much unauthorized labor, it could take years to have a fully authorized workforce, even with the new Office of Immigration Policy's program.
2. ๐ Ukraine weapon workaround

President Trump is planning to sell weapons to NATO allies with the understanding that they will then provide them to Ukraine, three sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios' Marc Caputo, Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler.
- Why it matters: This is a major policy shift from Trump as he grows increasingly disillusioned with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump had long rejected the idea of new arms packages for Ukraine in part to avoid becoming personally embroiled in the conflict.
๐ฅ The intrigue: Two administration officials denied the plans meant Trump would be directly arming Ukraine.
- One source said the sales could include offensive weaponry, not just air defense support.
๐ Between the lines: Trump continued to allow some arms shipments to Ukraine that were authorized under President Biden, but had not approved any new packages since taking office.
3. ๐จ๐ฆ Trump goes maximalist on ... Canada
President Trump has gone maximalist again on tariffs. Just like the last time, it appears the only thing that could stop him is a market meltdown, Axios' Madison Mills and Ben Berkowitz write.
- Why it matters: Stocks seem very, very disinclined to stop the historic rally they've been on for the last three months.
Every few hours this week, Trump has thrown down another trade gauntlet.
- He's told roughly two dozen countries via letter that he'll impose tariffs on Aug. 1. He announced last night that includes a 35% levy on Canada, a country from which the U.S. imports $412 billion in goods.
๐ญ Our thought bubble: The surprise announcement about Canada is a tactic straight from Trump's trade playbook.
- He goes from 0 to 100 with a massive threat on a tight deadline, to try to back the other side down. And it works! But it could also deeply disturb markets, particularly if the calendar gets closer to Aug. 1 without a deal.
๐บ The intrigue: His view on the reaction โ and what really matters โ is incredibly clear.
- "I think the tariffs have been very well-received. The stock market hit a new high today," Trump told NBC News' "Meet the Press" moderator Kristen Welker in a phone call yesterday.
4. ๐ฐ Scoop: Obama returns to fundraising circuit

Former President Obama is joining DNC chair Ken Martin for a high-dollar fundraiser in New Jersey tonight, Axios' Stef W. Kight has learned.
- Why it matters: It's Obama's first fundraiser since the party's devastating 2024 losses, and comes after a string of public headaches for the DNC leadership team.
The event comes ahead of New Jersey's gubernatorial and state legislative elections in November โ viewed as an early bellwether for next year's midterms.
- Outgoing New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) and his wife Tammy Murphy are hosting the fundraiser, according to an invite obtained by Axios.
- The "dinner and discussion" will include Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rep. Mikie Sherrill.
๐งฎ By the numbers: Obama raised $85 million for Democrats last cycle, his office told Axios.
5. โก EPA wades into "weather modification" debate

The Trump administration is working carefully to stamp out conspiracy theories about "weather modification," wading into a viral, recurring debate that reignited in the wake of Texas' deadly flooding, Axios' Zachary Basu and Dan Primack write.
- Why it matters: Some Trump allies have amplified baseless claims that cloud-seeding or geoengineering caused the disaster, complicating the government's efforts to reassert scientific facts without alienating the MAGA base.
Geoengineering involves large-scale attempts to counteract the effects of climate change, such as reflecting sunlight or enhancing rainfall.
- The industry has attracted significant investment in recent years. But there's no evidence that human technology played any role in the Texas floods.
๐ The intrigue: EPA administrator Lee Zeldin released a set of online resources that claim to cover "everything the agency knows about the latest science, research and other information regarding contrails and geoengineering."
- The materials directly debunk common myths, including the idea that aircraft contrails are secretly dispersing chemicals ("chemtrails") and that the government is manipulating weather events.
- But they do so in a way that echoes the language of skeptics โ emphasizing transparency and public concern, rather than outright dismissal.
- Keep reading.
๐ฃ Trump calls for flood alarms: The president will spend three hours in Kerrville, Texas, this afternoon with First Lady Melania Trump, including a roundtable with first responders and local officials. He told NBC News "Meet the Press" moderator Kristen Welker in a phone interview yesterday:
"After having seen this horrible event, I would imagine you'd put alarms up in some form, where alarms would go up if they see any large amounts of water or whatever it is ... But the local officials were hit by this just like everybody else."
6. ๐ฅ Global war on "witch hunts"
President Trump's criminal trials are behind him, but he's now crying "witch hunt" on behalf of ideological allies overseas, Axios' Dave Lawler writes.
- Why it matters: Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil โ set to go into effect Aug. 1 โ in part because of the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro for his efforts to overturn his loss in 2022, charges that mirror those Trump himself faced.
That's an extraordinary intervention in a friendly country's political and judicial processes, with tens of billions in trade at stake.
- It's also not the first time Trump has weighed in on judicial proceedings against right-wing politicians overseas.
๐ฌ Zoom in: Last month, he decried the "INSANITY" of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu having to juggle standing trial for alleged corruption with handling conflicts with Iran and Hamas.
- Trump's Truth Social post about Netanyahu's trial included an implicit threat: "The United States of America spends Billions of Dollar a year, far more than on any other Nation, protecting and supporting Israel. We are not going to stand for this."
7. ๐ถ๏ธ Secret Service's big changes
Nearly a year on from the assassination attempt on President Trump at a Pennsylvania rally, the Secret Service announced major reforms designed to ensure "a tragedy like this can never happen again."
- The agency acknowledged there was "an operational failure that the Secret Service will carry as a reminder of the critical importance of its zero-fail mission," Axios' Rebecca Falconer writes.
The Secret Service said it has implemented 21 of 46 recommendations made by Congressional oversight bodies in the wake of the shooting,ย which was a year ago on Sunday.
- Another 16 are in progress and nine are "addressed to non-Secret Service stakeholders."
- The agency suspended six U.S. Secret Service agents over their conduct around the assassination attempt.
๐บ In an interview to air Saturday night on Fox News, Trump told Lara Trump, his daughter-in-law, that he's "satisfied" with the Secret Service investigation: "I have great confidence in these people. ... They had a bad day." Watch the clip.
- List of Secret Service reforms ... Go deeper: "A shocking moment that shaped US history," by USA Today's Susan Page.
8. ๐ 1 fun thing: Tubing to work

Hundreds of people will "tube to work" this morning in Boulder, Colorado โ a summer tradition that's hit its 16th year, Axios Boulder's Mitchell Byars writes.
- If you've never tubed Boulder Creek, be aware: The water is cold, and you will end up in it.
The event started when two friends donned suits to float Boulder Creek in 2008. It's since grown into one of the city's signature events.
- Go deeper ... Get Axios Local: Daily newsletters in 34 cities.
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