Happy Friday, and happy getaway day.
Situational awareness: A Reuters poll of over 100 economists finds a one-in-three chance of a U.S. recession in the next two years, based on an already-old business cycle, as well as rising interest rates and barriers to trade.
Zeitgeist: Bloomberg says Trump's turbulent trade week "has the world on edge."
Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios
The United States was closer to war with North Korea last summer than is widely known, sources close to the White House tell Jonathan Swan and me.
And now that same dangerous uncertainty is back.
Jeff Prescott, a National Security Council senior director under President Obama, said Trump "has been acting like a politician seeking a political 'win' rather than a statesman acting in our national interest."
Ian Bremmer, founder of the Eurasia Group, said the announcement is "a big embarrassment for the president, no matter how he tries to spin it."
The White House view: Trump believes he got something — U.S. hostages returned from North Korea— for nothing. And he’s followed through on enough threats (strikes on Syria, withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, moving the embassy in Israel) that Kim Jong-un can't assume he's bluffing.
Be smart: The world now enters a second dangerous summer.
P.S. N.Y. Times Quote of the Day ... Robert S. Litwak, senior vice president of the Wilson Center for International Scholars, who wrote a detailed study of how to deal with defanging the North Korean threat:
"Democratic lawmakers said ... they heard nothing in classified briefings by the FBI and intelligence officials to support President Trump’s unsubstantiated allegation that the agency placed a 'spy' into his 2016 presidential campaign," per Reuters' Sarah Lynch and Mark Hosenball:
On balance, the people who run U.S. companies like the Age of Trump, The Economist writes in its cover story:
Olivier Douliery/Pool/Getty Images
With Sylvester Stallone by his left hand, President Trump holds a posthumous pardon for Jack Johnson, boxing's first black heavyweight champion, more than 100 years after what many see as his racially charged conviction.
"Mick Mulvaney Is Having a Blast Running the Agency He Detests ... Trump’s pick to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says he wants to give it the credibility of the SEC" — Bloomberg's Devin Leonard and Elizabeth Dexheimer:
"How a Weakened ESPN Became Consumed by Politics ... Arguments over tweets, tension with owner Disney increased anxiety over the network’s future in era of cord-cutting," by Wall Street Journal's Shalini Ramachandran (subscription):
Entertainment Weekly has an exclusive excerpt of "The President Is Missing," the joint novel by President Bill Clinton and thriller writer James Patterson, being published jointly by Knopf and Little, Brown and Company on June 4 (preorder).
First look ... A taste for Axios AM readers:
Worthy of your time: Entertainment Weekly's excerpt, posting soon.
On Instagram, former First Lady Michelle Obama revealed the cover of her memoir, "Becoming," to be published Nov. 13 by Crown Publishing Group, a division of Penguin Random House. (Preorder link.) From the press release:
Avocados on everything ... "The already-popular avocado is getting a turbo boost from higher supply and lower prices — and restaurants are eager to cash in, Bloomberg's Leslie Patton writes: