President Trump undoubtedly stands on strong political ground, backed by most Americans, in cases where he's deporting convicted criminals, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.

• Now comes a new test, literally 40 years in the making: How comfortable are Americans with deporting millions of immigrants who paid taxes, built families and committed no crimes after coming here illegally?

Why it matters: That's the heart of the standoff in LA, as well as the broader Trump effort to expel potentially millions of immigrants who broke the law to get here and then played by U.S. rules.

• "I said it from Day 1: If you're in the country illegally, you're not off the table," Tom Homan, Trump's border czar, told the N.Y. Times. "So, we're opening that aperture up."

The backstory: Congress, going back to 1986, has sought and failed to find a pathway to citizenship for those who fit the precise description above. Many current GOP senators were among those seeking said solution.

• But concerns about border security and rewarding illegal behavior killed every effort. Now, Trump, Republicans, some Democrats and much of the U.S. public are supportive of mass deportation instead.

An estimated 14 million unauthorized immigrants live here — many of them working and paying taxes. They often fill jobs other Americans won't do — hotels, construction sites, landscaping and child care. Expelling them would sink some businesses, slow services in many communities, and hit close to home for lots of U.S. citizens.

• Will public enthusiasm wane when this reality becomes clear?

Trump and White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller are pushing to hit a target of 3,000 immigration arrests a day, as first reported by Axios' Brittany Gibson and Stef Kight.

• That's triple the number of daily arrests that agents were making in the early days of Trump's term, Axios found.

The only way to pull that off is by casting wider nets beyond convicted criminals to larger worksites. So raids could rise sharply at factories, restaurants and Home Depots, where people living here illegally often gather to seek day labor on job sites.

• "Wait till you find out how many trillions we have to spend on illegal aliens," Miller wrote yesterday in reply to a tweet by California Gov. Gavin Newsom about a Pentagon estimate that the National Guard deployment in LA will cost $134 million and last 60 days.

🔭 The big picture: Accelerated deportations are a top personal priority for Trump, who relishes visibility for the raids. Amid the unrest in LA on Monday, Miller posted on X: "You can have all the other plans and budgets you want. If you don't fix migration, then nothing else can be fixed — or saved."

• White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told us: "If you are present in the United States illegally, you will be deported. This is the promise President Trump made to the American people and the Administration is committed to keeping it."

📊 A CBS News/YouGov poll taken last week showed 54% approval of the Trump administration's program to deport immigrants illegally in the U.S.

• White House communications director Steven Cheung tweeted that finding and added: "And the approval number will be even higher after the national guard was sent to LA to beat back the violence this weekend."

💡 How it works: It's important to understand how people pay taxes even though they're here illegally:

• In 1996, the U.S. government created an alternative to the Social Security number for undocumented immigrants — the individual taxpayer identification number (ITIN). This allows people to pay taxes while being here illegally and awaiting a path to citizenship.
• Those people have been paying taxes, believing it would enhance their chances of getting citizenship. A portion of those taxes helps fund Social Security. Under that law, if they eventually get citizenship, those taxes will count toward their retirement.
• The amounts are substantial. Undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion in federal, state and local taxes in 2022, according to a tally by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. More than a third of what they pay funds programs they can't even access.

Now, those ITIN numbers could be used to track people down. Deportation fears triggered a decline in tax filings this year in some immigrant communities in the D.C. suburbs, The Washington Post found.

• That sets the stage for a humanitarian showdown unlike any witnessed in U.S. history: Trump is willing to use the U.S. military inside America to protect U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents during roundups.

The bottom line: There's no clear mechanism to differentiate between someone who came here recently alone versus a father of three, whose wife and children are living here legally, and have been here paying taxes and committing no crimes for a decade. In the eyes of the current law, illegal is illegal.

• When TV explodes with images of burning cars and lawlessness, Trump wins. But what about families torn apart or longtime neighbors yanked from their homes and taken away in handcuffs? That's when America's rawest views of immigration will be revealed.

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Troops deployed to LA. Paratroopers dropping from the sky before a partisan speech to troops at Fort Bragg. A military parade in D.C. that will coincide with Flag Day, the Army's 250th birthday — and the president's birthday.

• Call it President Trump's Strongman Week. Trump is making a point of showing executive force at a level he only dreamed about during his first term, Axios' Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt write.

Why it matters: Trump's swift militarized response to the LA protests marks a defining moment in his presidency, as he uses his military authority to juice his immigration crackdown and hammer Democrats.

🔎 Zoom in: Trump said yesterday that he'll send troops to any city he deems at risk of riots or possibly even protests he doesn't like — including Saturday's military parade in D.C.

• Trump's executive order authorizing the National Guard deployment doesn't specify LA. It could apply anywhere.

👀 The intrigue: White House insiders say Trump's response to the LA protests appears to have energized him after a week in which Elon Musk brutally criticized him during their falling out over the "Big Beautiful Bill."

• "The president was actually hurt" by the Musk episode, according to a confidant who spoke with Trump about it. "Yes, he has feelings, and he was hurt the way anyone would be when a friend turns on them."
• "But that's gone now. LA wiped away the Elon drama," the source said. "What's driving the president is how the riots of 2020 are seared into his brain, and how he wished he could've sent in the troops to end it."

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Mark Zuckerberg wants to play a bigger role in the development of superintelligent AI — and is willing to spend billions to recover from a series of setbacks and defections that have left Meta lagging and the CEO steaming, Axios' Ina Fried writes.

• Why it matters: Competitors aren't standing still. That's clear from recent model releases by Anthropic and OpenAI — and a blog post by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman last night that suggests "the gentle singularity" is already underway.

To catch up, Zuckerberg is prepared to open up his significant wallet to hire the talent he needs.

1. Meta wants to recruit a team of 50 top-notch researchers to lead a new effort focused on smarter-than-human artificial intelligence, a source told Axios.
2. As part of that push, the company is looking to invest on the order of $15 billion to amass roughly half of Scale AI and bring its CEO, Alexandr Wang, and other key leaders into the company, The Information reported.

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Private equity is inching closer to college sports after a judge signed off on a settlement that lets schools pay their student-athletes, Axios Pro Rata author Dan Primack writes.

• Why it matters: The settlement gives both schools and investors much more economic clarity, which could lead to dealmaking.

How it works: Each school will be allowed to share up to $20.5 million in revenue, mostly with football players. That cap is expected to rise annually.

• The settlement also provides $2.8 billion in restitution to former student-athletes.

🔭 Zoom out: The settlement helps firms understand the haves and have-nots, as only a relatively small handful of colleges can afford to spend up to the limit.

• Expect a lot of private investment to help finance new facilities and develop luxe fan experiences.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will tell House lawmakers this morning that the cost-cutting and layoffs at the IRS didn't lead to an expected decline in revenue, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.

• April's and May's tax receipts came in higher than last year.

Why it matters: More tax revenue gives the Treasury Department more time before it runs out of money and hits the debt limit.

• That could effectively relieve pressure on Congress to pass Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" before the July Fourth recess.

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After two days of talks in London, the U.S. and China agreed on a "framework" to implement a trade deal struck last month and ease tensions between the countries.

• Why it matters: Progress on trade peace with China, particularly if it resolves the issue of Chinese rare earth minerals exports, would be a boon to the economy and markets, which have struggled for months with the impact of President Trump's tariff program, Axios' Ben Berkowitz writes.

✈️ The backstory: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Axios' Mike Allen while flying back from London early today that the deal is "great for America." Lutnick told us that a big key was President Trump's decision to take a positive approach during his lengthy call last week with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

• Chinese officials quoted from the call several times during the marathon negotiations with Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

The deal was announced near midnight at Lancaster House, a 200-year-old mansion near Buckingham Palace.

• Lutnick, who for four decades was a top dealmaker on Wall Street, credited "stamina and staying power": "When you see a deal is possible, you stay at it."

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Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has imposed a more intensive review process for interagency reports, slowing their publication and deepening internal fears about political influence on intelligence, Axios' Dave Lawler and Barak Ravid report.

• The new layers of approval were introduced after Gabbard's acting chief of staff pushed for changes to a politically inconvenient report on Venezuela from experts across multiple intelligence agencies.

Veterans of U.S. intelligence warned the episode would send a "chill" through the community. "Nobody wants to give the boss what he or she needs to hear if the messenger is going to get shot," a former senior intel official told Axios.

• Go deeper.

Delaware, West Virginia and New Hampshire are home to America's best tippers, with diners leaving nearly 21% or better on average, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes from new data from the Toast payment-processing system.

• On the other end are California and Washington state, where average tips run under 18%.

By the numbers: Average nationwide tips at full-service restaurants were 19.3% in Q4 2024.

• Explore the data.