As negotiations for a Gaza peace deal approached the finish line, President Trump provided a personal guarantee he wouldn't let Israel abandon it and resume the war, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.

• Why it matters: Trump's assurances were a key factor in convincing Hamas to take the deal, two U.S. officials revealed in a briefing with reporters.

The ceasefire is now officially in effect after Israel's Cabinet approved the deal early this morning local time.

• The officials said that part of Trump's guarantee was the establishment of a U.S.-led military task force — set to include 200 American soldiers and officers — to oversee the ceasefire and address any violations.

The Israeli military must now withdraw its forces to an agreed perimeter inside Gaza within 24 hours of the Cabinet vote.

• In the next 72 hours after that happens, Hamas must release all of the remaining hostages, 20 of whom are alive. That should be completed by Monday.

The intrigue: A U.S. official told Axios one factor in the breakthrough was that "Hamas had started to see the hostages as a liability rather than an asset" in terms of its future negotiating position.

• With that in mind, the U.S. side came into this week's talks believing Hamas was now ready to free the hostages, and that they could ensure the Israelis stuck to their side of the bargain.

👀 Behind the scenes: Trump asked his envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, what the odds of a deal were before they departed for Egypt on Tuesday.

• "100%," Kushner replied, according to a U.S. official. A surprised Trump asked how he could possibly know that, and Kushner answered: "Because we can't afford to fail."
• After arriving, Witkoff and Kushner delivered a message to the mediators, and through them to Hamas, that Trump stood behind every point of his 20-point plan and would ensure it was fully implemented.

"There was a great deal of mistrust between the sides," another U.S. official said. "The president wanted to make it clear that this deal was very important to him, that he wanted it to happen, that he wants to end the carnage, and wanted to make sure everyone understood he would enforce good conduct."

• Both U.S. officials said Trump was personally involved in the negotiations, making at least three calls to various interlocutors to express his assurances directly.

🔎 Zoom in: One part of Trump's guarantee is a U.S.-led military monitoring mechanism for the ceasefire.

• Witkoff and Kushner discussed the idea with CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper while on the flight to Egypt. Cooper later joined the negotiations to present the idea.

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22 states are in recession or on the precipice of a downturn, Axios' Emily Peck writes from an analysis by Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

• Why it matters: The states in contraction are sprinkled around the country, and make up about a third of the nation's GDP.

Their problems are driven largely by a mix of slowing immigration, increasing tariffs and federal job cuts, Zandi argues.

• "My takeaway is not that the economy is in recession, but it's pretty darn close," he says.

🎨 The big picture: Many of the recessionary states rely on agriculture and manufacturing — both hurt by tariff increases.

• Also in trouble are the states most exposed to federal job cuts, Virginia and Maryland.

Also on the recession list:

• Iowa, where farmers are struggling from the trade war.
• Kansas and South Dakota have heavy agricultural exposure.
• Georgia, Illinois and Oregon have comparatively large manufacturing industries.

🕶️ Boom states are led by Texas and Florida.

🔮 What to watch: New York and California, both in the "treading water" category, could decide which way the national economy goes.

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Civilian federal workers start getting their last (partial) paychecks this morning until the shutdown ends. And barring a breakthrough, their military peers will miss payday altogether next Wednesday, Axios' Justin Green writes.

• Why it matters: That new, real-life bite could be an impetus for solving the shutdown, which today enters Day 10.

🏛️ Despite doubts raised by the White House, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told Axios' Kate Santaliz that "of course" Congress will ensure furloughed federal workers get back pay once the government reopens.

• Timeline: Deadlines that could pressure Congress to reopen the government.

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize today "for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy."

• Machado, a 58-year-old industrial engineer who lives in hiding, was blocked in 2024 by Venezuela's courts from running for president and thus challenging President Nicolas Maduro, in power since 2013. (Reuters)

President Trump had received several nominations for the Peace Prize, and there was an 11th-hour, long-shot campaign for him after the ceasefire and hostage-return deal in Gaza.

• Trump said in his UN speech last month that after ending multiple wars and negotiating the Abraham Accords in his first term, "everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize for each one of these achievements."
• "But for me," Trump added, "the real prize will be the sons and daughters who live to grow up with their mothers and fathers because millions of people are no longer being killed in endless and unglorious wars. What I care about is not winning prizes — it's saving lives."

More on the winner.

New York Attorney General Letitia James — one of President Trump's biggest adversaries — was indicted yesterday in Alexandria, Va., on charges of bank fraud and making false statements to a financial institution, Axios' Josephine Walker writes.

• Why it matters: James, who won a civil fraud lawsuit against Trump and his companies last year, is the latest target in the president's pursuit of retribution against political opponents.

James denied wrongdoing, saying that "this is nothing more than a continuation of the president's desperate weaponization of our justice system."

• "These charges are baseless, and the president's own public statements make clear that his only goal is political retribution at any cost."

🔭 Zoom out: Allegations of mortgage fraud have become a favorite weapon of the Trump administration.

• Mortgage-related accusations have also been leveled against Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.).

Read the indictment ... James' statement.

Sunday is the third anniversary of the bull market, which began Oct. 12, 2022.

• Big Tech has driven the bull run, Axios Markets author Madison Mills notes.

The S&P 500 is up 88% in the three years.

• The Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) is up 166% since the moniker was coined in 2023.

Go deeper (Reuters).

Apple is increasing how much it pays to security researchers for the bugs they find in iPhones and Macs, with some payouts topping $2 million, Axios Future of Cybersecurity author Sam Sabin writes.

• Why it matters: Apple is incentivizing security researchers to spot bugs likely to be exploited by spyware vendors and nation-state hackers.

The decision to increase payouts could help the tech giant compete against spyware vendors — and the foreign governments they work with — who often will pay big bucks for details about such flaws.

• Governments have increasingly turned to spyware to snoop on politicians, journalists, activists, dissidents and other high-profile figures.

Keep reading.

Spotted on the Resolute Desk during an Oval Office press conference yesterday: a mock-up of what would be a new triumphal arch just across the Potomac River from the Lincoln Memorial.

• The arch, if built as depicted, would sit at the entrance to Arlington National Cemetery.

Arc de Trump? The model resembles the Arc de Triomphe in Paris, "which was commissioned by the French emperor Napoleon in the early 19th century to commemorate fallen soldiers during his military campaigns," AFP notes.