The Trump administration is showing signs it could ban cutting-edge Chinese AI models — a momentous move that could lock in dominance by OpenAI and Anthropic, Axios' Maria Curi writes.

• Why it matters: Parts of the administration have tried to implement de facto bans on foreign open-source models before, knowledgeable sources tell Axios. Last week's rise of Chinese model Kimi is reigniting those efforts.

The big picture: U.S. companies are increasingly using open-source models from China because they're cheaper and, as seen by the rise of Kimi, just about as good as the domestic tech.

• Kimi and other Chinese models such as DeepSeek and GLM allow users to download and customize them. They have fewer guardrails, lower cost and more flexibility than the closed American models.

Between the lines: The administration wouldn't need to impose an outright ban to get U.S. companies to drop those Chinese platforms.

• "What's actually happening is slower and more durable," a source familiar with government discussions said, citing procurement rules, Entity List threats and public pressure campaigns aimed at U.S. companies using Chinese models.
• Instead of a ban, another source familiar with government discussions described a push to highlight potential backdoors and lack of security with Chinese models, and the governance issue that brings.
• It's an offensive approach where the administration encourages a more innovative U.S. open-source ecosystem, the source added.

The other side: Some administration officials keen on keeping regulation from stifling innovation, including former White House adviser Sriram Krishnan, have left the premises. National security hawks have grown louder.

• With that shift in personnel — along with the rise of more powerful Chinese tech and fresh cybersecurity fears — momentum for a ban is picking up.

Outside White House adviser David Sacks escalated the fight publicly yesterday, writing on X: "We are at a critical inflection point in AI policy. The leading closed labs, already a duopoly in terms of AI model revenue, want the government to eliminate their open source competition. They have laid their cards on the table. It is time for the rest of Silicon Valley — the vast majority that still values open competition — to do the same."

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The national average price of regular gas poked above $4 a gallon again this morning, hitting $4.003 on AAA's tracker.

• Why it matters: Midterms are 106 days away, and the U.S. is teetering on returning to all-out war with Iran — a politically dangerous combination for the White House and the GOP.

A year ago, the average price was $3.14 a gallon. A month ago, it was $3.95. A week ago, it was $3.87.

• Gas first topped $4 a gallon at the end of March. The price reached $4.56 ahead of Memorial Day weekend.

Share this story … Mapped: Average price by state.

A proprietary survey shows AI is fueling automation that's changing the trajectory of early-stage pharma research, Axios' Adriel Bettelheim writes.

• Why it matters: The TD Cowen survey of 80 biopharma leaders and insiders finds AI is reducing drug developers' preclinical costs and timelines by as much as 70%.

That's fueling demand for cutting-edge software, sequencing tools and computer models that will help churn out more experimental treatments in the next five years.

🖼️ The big picture: AI can't replace scientific intuition. But the way it can streamline the grueling R&D before human testing begins is making computer screens as important a feature of drug design as traditional laboratories.

• Brendan Smith, director of life sciences equity research at TD Cowen, says the hope is to generate large amounts of data to train the AI models and increase the odds of clinical success.

🥊 Reality check: AI hasn't yet discovered a drug that's won FDA approval.

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Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time, winning the World Cup and bringing the curtain down on the largest and flashiest tournament soccer has ever seen.

• President Trump, First Lady Melania Trump and global politicians and celebrities attended the World Cup Final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Spain's Ferran Torres scored the match's only goal in the 106th minute, in the second period of extra time.

• Spain controlled the game, taking the first 20 shots before Argentina got its first attempt off in the second half of extra time. Only the record-breaking 11 saves by Argentina goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez kept the team in the match despite their otherwise lackluster performance.

Argentina's Lionel Messi, 39, broke down in tears after what could be his last World Cup game. Two decades after his 2006 debut as an 18-year-old, the player many consider the greatest ever came up one game short.

• He had previously said the 2022 World Cup would be his last. If he plays in 2030, Messi would be among the oldest players ever at a World Cup.

🇪🇸 Spain's domination: The team — nicknamed La Roja for their red jerseys — suffocated opponents, allowing just one goal in the entire tournament.

• They also set a record for the longest undefeated run (38 games) in men's international football history.

🏆 The country of 49 million people is now the reigning champion of three of the sport's biggest tournaments: the World Cup, the Euros and the Olympics.

• Spain also won the last Women's World Cup three years ago.

📱 Watch the winning goal ... Tournament takeaways: From video reviews to hydration breaks.

The U.S. military launched fresh strikes against Iran last night after announcing the death of a soldier and the recovery of another's remains, Axios' Barak Ravid and Rebecca Falconer write.

• CENTCOM said an American service member was killed Saturday in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian attack drone.
• It also revealed that "unidentified remains" were found at the location of an Iranian missile attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan that killed two American troops on Friday. One soldier had been missing.

President Trump told reporters that the U.S. hit Iran "very hard again."

• "We feel very badly, but you know those great people, those great patriots, were out there fighting that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," he said.
• If the remains are confirmed to be a U.S. soldier, it would bring the American death toll in the war to 18.

Keep reading.

Former President Biden unintentionally emboldened Israeli aggression against Gaza and Iran by repeatedly deferring decisions on withholding weapons, The New Yorker's David D. Kirkpatrick writes in an article out today, "The Enabler."

• Alarms about potential war crimes "began ringing inside the Biden Administration soon after Israel began its counterattack on Gaza" after the Hamas-led assault of Oct. 7, 2023, writes Kirkpatrick, who interviewed more than a dozen former senior Biden officials for the 13-page piece.

Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, told Kirkpatrick: "I will say straightforwardly — we should have put more pressure on Israel to take a different approach." Sullivan said Biden and top advisers feared that taking action to make Israel better protect civilians "risked both failing to change Israeli policy and leading Hamas to increase its demands."

• Sullivan said the administration "seriously thought about making a decisive break with Israel" in the spring of 2024, "in the run-up to Rafah, when Hamas was stalling in negotiations," and again in July 2024, "when Hamas was coming back." But risks abounded: "What about the hostages? What about Israel under attack from all sides? What effect would it have on the ceasefire talks and bringing this god-awful war to an end?"

Former Secretary of State Tony Blinken told The New Yorker: "How can you not have regrets [about the Gaza conflict] given the toll that this took on innocent men, women and children?" But he repeated the gist of a Biden quote: "Question my judgments. Don't question my motives."

• Jon Finer — Biden's principal deputy national security adviser, and a former Washington Post correspondent who had covered previous Israeli military operations in Gaza — said: "It's obvious now, and was pretty clear then, that [Israel] simply did not tell us the truth about their plans and their timelines, and it made no sense to accept those claims at face value."

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A "generational transfer" of cash is underway from AI hyperscalers to chipmakers, according to Bank of America analysts.

• Hyperscalers — think Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle — are plowing so much into chips and compute that it's draining their own free cash flow (cash left over after covering expenses and investments), Axios' Matt Phillips writes.

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Christopher Nolan's summer epic "The Odyssey" dominated the box office this weekend with a commanding $125 million in domestic ticket sales and another $140 million overseas.

• Why it matters: In a Hollywood where franchises lead the box office, Nolan proved that an unlikely bet — in this case, a nearly 3,000-year-old poem — could open like a blockbuster.

The film — starring Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong'o, Zendaya and Charlize Theron — is Nolan's biggest global opening of all time.

• The $265 million total surpassed "The Dark Knight Rises" ($249 million) in 2012, The Hollywood Reporter notes.

📚 Between the lines: Nolan's film is also fueling a bump for Homer. Sales of all translations of "The Odyssey" are up 76% year-to-date, according to Circana BookScan.

• Checkouts of the epic on e-book lender Libby have jumped 217% from this time last year, according to USA Today.
• Global listens of "The Odyssey" audiobook on Spotify are up more than 300%.

🍿 An "Odyssey" primer (N.Y. Times gift link).