The Trump-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel has, for now, brought an abrupt and extraordinary end to one of the Middle East's most explosive confrontations in decades, Axios' Barak Ravid and Zachary Basu write.

• Why it matters: The 12-day war sent shockwaves through a region already reeling from nearly two years of historic volatility and violence, beginning with Hamas' Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel.

President Trump's military intervention to destroy Iranian nuclear sites brought the U.S. to the precipice of a major conflict that four of his predecessors had sought to avoid.

• But it set the stage for a ceasefire that — if it holds — could usher in a fundamentally new era for the Middle East, its security and its dominant powers.

📱 Trump told Axios' Barak Ravid in a phone call: "This is the end of the war. It is a great and wonderful thing for Israel and the world."

⏱️ How it happened: Trump announced on social media at 6:02 p.m. ET that Israel and Iran had agreed to a "Complete and Total CEASEFIRE," ending "what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR.'"

• Iran responded with mixed signals, but state TV later said the ceasefire was in effect. Just a few hours ago, around 2 a.m. ET, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Iran in coordination with Trump.
• The situation remains dangerous: Israel is accusing Iran of breaking the ceasefire. For several hours before the ceasefire came into effect — and for several minutes after — Iran fired multiple missile barrages at Israel that killed civilians, threatening to upend Trump's deal.

👀 Behind the scenes: Trump's efforts to end the war began in earnest on Saturday, shortly after U.S. B-2 bombers launched 14 massive bunker-buster bombs that almost completely destroyed Iran's three main nuclear facilities.

• The president instructed Steve Witkoff, his special envoy to the Middle East, to communicate to the Iranians his desire to negotiate a deal to end the war, according to a White House official.
• Iran initially refused to engage and said diplomacy would be possible only after it exacted revenge by striking U.S. targets, a source with direct knowledge said.

But prior to launching yesterday's missile attack on the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Iran sent messages to the U.S. — via Qatar — conveying when and what targets they intended to strike, a White House official said.

• Immediately after the strike, which left no casualties, the Iranians sent another back-channel message notifying the White House that they would not conduct any further attacks on U.S. targets.
• The White House responded — again via the Qataris — saying the U.S. wouldn't retaliate to the Iranian attack, and reiterating its readiness to resume negotiations.

🔭 Zoom in: The war ended with Iran at its weakest point since its devastating eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s.

• Israeli and U.S. officials both claim that it will take Iran years to rebuild its military power, reestablish its proxy network and restore its deterrence.
• Iran's nuclear program has likely been set back by years — and now faces the threat of further U.S. and Israeli military action if the regime seeks to rebuild it.

Between the lines: A White House official argued that it was the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities that ultimately created the conditions for ending the war.

• "The Iranians understood Trump wasn't playing games and the Israelis were grateful that Trump did something they couldn't do on their own — and couldn't say no when he asked them to stop," the White House official said.

The bottom line: For a president who promised deals but has struggled to end the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, the Iran-Israel ceasefire would represent a massive success in his doctrine of "peace through strength."

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President Trump's team huddled yesterday to discuss a victory tour for shortly after July 4, following what they hope will be passage and signing of his Big Beautiful Bill, a White House source with direct knowledge tells Axios' Mike Allen and Marc Caputo.

• Why it matters: A top Trump aide pointed out that this will likely be seen as Trump's first big move of the 2026 midterm cycle. Republican control of the House is at acute risk.

✈️ Trump's top aides are planning a whole-of-government mobilization, with the president, Vice President Vance and top cabinet officials doing a lap around the country, visiting target states and congressional districts.

• The bill has passed the House but faces hurdles in the Senate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) says he won't let senators leave for the Fourth of July recess until the bill passes.
• It'll be a puzzle, but the White House expects the bill to pass. With Trump looking strong abroad, expect a rally-around-the-chief effect among congressional Republicans.

🥊 Behind the scenes: The West Wing is in a triumphal mood after this weekend's U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, and the Trump-brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran.

• At 6 a.m. this morning, Trump was scheduled to leave the White House for a two-day trip to a NATO summit in the Netherlands, where he's expected to bask on the world stage.

Reality check: Republicans privately express lots of doubts about holding the House. And for all the overseas wins, Trump's poll numbers outside Republicans could depend on whether voters' daily lives are more affordable.

• The White House source told us: "Tough hasn't stopped us before."

Republicans have launched four separate investigations into former President Biden and whether his declining health affected his abilities in the White House, Axios' Alex Thompson writes.

• Why it matters: Democrats don't want to talk about Biden after last year's elections. Republicans are trying to force them to — even as the GOP has shown little willingness to conduct oversight of the Trump administration's norm-busting first months.

The GOP probes reflect how questioning Biden's legitimacy has become a focus of Trump's presidency — and how in the face of any bad news, Trump frequently blames Biden, 82, as an excuse or a deflection.

💡 State of play: Following Trump's lead, Republicans across Washington have eagerly opened investigations in recent weeks.

• Today, House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) will begin conducting closed-door interviews of former senior Biden White House officials that are expected to continue for months.
• Comer also subpoenaed Biden's White House physician, Dr. Kevin O'Connor, who will be deposed on July 9, according to a Comer spokesperson.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), chair of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs' select subcommittee on investigations, launched a Biden probe last month.

• Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) co-chaired a Judiciary Committee hearing last week titled "Unfit to Serve: How the Biden Cover-Up Endangered America and Undermined the Constitution."

On June 4, Trump instructed his Justice Department and the White House counsel's office to open an investigation into "whether certain individuals conspired to deceive the public about Biden's mental state and unconstitutionally exercise the authorities and responsibilities of the President."

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Stocks absolutely, positively don't want to go down, Axios Markets author Madison Mills writes in her debut story for Axios.

• Tariffs? War in the Middle East? Rising energy prices? Surging deficits? High interest rates? Weak dollar? Plunging CEO confidence? Climate change? Nope, nope, nope.

Why it matters: Investors are already ignoring a slew of headwinds. Lots of risks could become the final straw that breaks the market's climb.

Stocks rallied hard yesterday after Iran conducted a performative retaliation, sending oil plunging more than 7%, and reinforcing investors' relentless optimism.

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President Trump's most fervent backers normally revel in his wild unpredictability and improvisation. But in the past few days, they've been rattled by it, Axios' Tal Axelrod and Alex Isenstadt write.

• Why it matters: Many in his anti-war MAGA flock were alarmed when he ordered the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites. But they mostly withheld criticism as he promised the attacks would be limited, not aimed at ousting Iran's leaders, and wouldn't lead Americans into a prolonged war.

Then on Sunday, he confused and alarmed some MAGA loyalists — and contradicted his own advisers — by advocating for regime change in Iran.

• Trump calmed MAGA world yesterday, essentially claiming victory and touting a ceasefire after Iran responded with a muted missile attack that opened the door for diplomacy.

🖼️ The big picture: Trump's tendency to adopt flexible stances on key issues often is chaotic. But his followers have hailed it as "strategic ambiguity" — a way to maintain maximum leverage over unsteady opponents.

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New York City voters face a choice today: A 67-year-old scandal-stained insider or a 33-year-old democratic socialist scorned by the city's elite.

• Why it matters: It's the first, difficult step on the road to redefining the Democratic Party.

At its core, the race can be boiled down to old-guard moderates running against younger, energetic candidates with ambitious — often expensive — ideas. It's the same dynamic that will likely play out across the country over the next few years.

• Also at stake: How the city and the party fight back against President Trump and his MAGA alliance, which New York's Democratic electorate desperately wants to oppose.

🖼️ The big picture: A win by Zohran Mamdani — the surging progressive state assemblyman — would deal a major blow to the establishment.

• That establishment, fearful of Mamdani's tax-the-rich ethos, has lined up behind controversial former Gov. Andrew Cuomo with endorsements and piles of cash.
• The race is close and could come down to last-minute turnout on the city's hottest day of the year — an alarming development for Cuomo, who's relying on older voters.
• An Emerson poll released yesterday showed Cuomo and Mamdani in a statistical tie, four weeks after the same poll had Cuomo with a 12-point lead.

Reality check: The primary result — which might not be known for at least a week — may not matter much. Both Cuomo and Mamdani have indicated they could contest the general election on other parties' lines if they lose.

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Nearly 170 million Americans are under some form of heat advisory or warning from an early summer heat wave that's hitting large parts of the country, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes.

• Why it matters: The event, which broke temperature records across the West and Alaska before shifting east, is bringing an especially dangerous combination of heat and humidity.

Much of the eastern U.S. is at "major" or "extreme" risk of heat-related impacts this week, according to the National Weather Service's experimental HeatRisk index (mapped above).

• Nearly 370 daily high-temperature records were tied or broken between last Monday and Saturday.

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Disney's Pixar saw its worst-ever box office debut over the weekend with its sci-fi adventure film "Elio" earning just $21 million domestically after reportedly spending at least $250 million on production and marketing.

• Why it matters: The animated movie is a costly outlier to other family-friendly films that have packed cinemas and helped theaters toward a post-pandemic rebound, Axios' Kerry Flynn and Sara Fischer write.

By the numbers: "Elio" came in third place domestically over the weekend, behind Universal's "How To Train Your Dragon" at $37 million and Sony's "28 Years Later" at $30 million, per Comscore.

• "Elio" brought in just $14 million overseas for $35 million in total, according to Comscore.

🎨 The big picture: With the exception of "Inside Out 2" last summer, Pixar has struggled to regain the box office momentum of its dominance in the 2000s and 2010s.

• "Luca" and "Turning Red" were released straight to Disney+ in 2021 and 2022, respectively. "Lightyear" underwhelmed at the box office in the summer of 2022.

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