Axios AM

May 07, 2024
Good Tuesday morning. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,373 words ... 5 mins. Thanks to Noah Bressner for orchestrating. Copy edited by Bryan McBournie.
1 big thing: Israel frustrated with hostage talks

Israeli officials claim the Biden administration knew about the latest hostage and ceasefire deal proposal that Egypt and Qatar negotiated with Hamas — but didn't brief them before Hamas announced it had accepted it yesterday, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.
- Why it matters: The episode has created deep disappointment and suspicion among senior Israeli officials regarding the U.S. role in the hostage deal talks. It could hurt future negotiations.
A senior U.S. official pushed back: "American diplomats have been engaged with Israeli counterparts. There have been no surprises."
- The official said the Biden administration sees Hamas' response as a counter-proposal, not a new proposal.
👀 Behind the scenes: Three Israeli officials said yesterday's Hamas announcement about accepting a ceasefire surprised the Israeli government — and that Israel didn't receive the text of the group's response from the mediators until an hour after Hamas released its statement.
- When the Israelis read Hamas' response, they were surprised to see it contained "many new elements" that weren't part of the previous proposal that Israel agreed on, and that was presented to Hamas by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar 10 days ago, the officials said.
- "It looked like a whole new proposal," one official said.
- Two Israeli officials said the feeling is that "Israel got played" by the U.S., and the mediators who drafted "a new deal" and weren't transparent.
The other side: A source with knowledge of the negotiations said the U.S. invited the Israelis to Cairo over the weekend but they chose not to send a team.
- One Israeli official admitted it was a mistake that led Israel to have less visibility into the talks.

⚡ Breaking: Today, an Israeli tank brigade seized control of the Gaza Strip side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt as Israel moved forward with an offensive. Get the latest.
2. 🏛️ Dems' breaking point on Israel

Democrats in Congress are furious as Israel moves into the southern Gazan city of Rafah after they and President Biden spent months trying to prevent such an operation, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.
- Why it matters: A full-scale invasion could be a sea-change moment for Democrats on Israel and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom relations have become increasingly strained.
A House Democrat who has pushed for Biden to condition military aid to Israel said the Rafah assault "has the potential of making our case for us."
3. 🚨 Jail threat gets real

The idea that Donald Trump could land in jail for violating a gag order in his hush-money trial suddenly became real yesterday, Axios' Erin Doherty writes.
- Manhattan Judge Juan Merchan found Trump in contempt of court for a 10th time — and warned the former president that more violations could land him behind bars.
Why it matters: Any jail time for Trump, no matter how long, would have ripple effects through the trial, the presidential campaign, New York's corrections system and even Trump's Secret Service detail.
"The last thing I want to do is put you in jail," Merchan said.
- "You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president as well. There are many reasons why incarceration is truly a last resort for me. To take that step would be disruptive to these proceedings."
🔎 Zoom in: Merchan's order represents "a significant increase in the pressure," former New York federal prosecutor Mitchell Epner told Axios.
- The length of any contempt jail sentence would be up to the judge — who also would determine where Trump would be sent.
- It could be as short as a lunch hour in a cell at the Manhattan courthouse on a trial day. But any multiple-day sentence would make the notorious Rikers Island jail the most likely option, Epner said.
The Secret Service has been planning for weeks for the possibility Trump could be jailed, The New York Times reports.
- If Trump were sent to Rikers, he most likely would be held in the West Facility, which has separate housing units with a small number of cells, said Martin Horn, a professor emeritus at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and former commissioner of New York City's Department of Probation.
- "Each cell has an ... observation room attached to it and they're air-conditioned. That would be a place where the Secret Service could observe him ... [and keep him] separate from other prisoners."
4. 📢 Exclusive poll: College students shrug


College protests are dominating headlines. But only a sliver of students are participating or view the Israel-Hamas war as a top issue, Axios' Sareen Habeshian writes from a new Generation Lab survey.
- Why it matters: The poll hints that the war — and the accompanying protests — might not hurt President Biden's election prospects among young voters as much as some think.
🧮 By the numbers: Only a small minority (8%) of college students have participated in either side of the protests, the survey of 1,250 college students found.
- Students ranked the conflict in the Middle East as the least important issue out of nine options (charted above).
5. ⛵ Navy's new problem: Drone ships

The U.S. Navy's efforts to build a fleet of unmanned vessels are faltering because the Pentagon remains wedded to big shipbuilding projects, Reuters reports.
- Why it matters: The recent push masks years of hesitation by the U.S. Navy to build a fleet of unmanned vessels, despite repeated warnings this was the future of maritime warfare.
Tactics used by Ukraine (successfully) and Houthi rebels in Yemen (less successfully) have caught the attention of the Pentagon, which is incorporating those lessons into plans to counter China's rising naval power.
- But the Pentagon budget process still prioritizes big ships and submarines.
6. 🗳️ Scoop: Biden hits Trump on border

The Biden campaign is launching a digital ad to remind Latino voters of President Trump's family separation policy at the border — officially announced six years ago today — which resulted in 3,000+ kids being taken from their parents.
- Why it matters: The Biden campaign is upping its effort to puncture what they see as nostalgia for Trump's four years in office.
Zoom in: The ad, "Ripped Apart," interlaces video of Trump making anti-immigrant comments with the cries of children separated from their parents.
The other side: Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said he "will restore his effective immigration policies ... and marshal every federal and state power necessary to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history."
7. 📚 Cliff Sims: Biblical takeaways from D.C.'s halls
Cover: Worthy Books
Cliff Sims, a former (and perhaps future) Trump administration official, is out today with what he tells me is a "political junky's dream devotional book."
- "The Darkness Has Not Overcome: Lessons on Faith and Politics from Inside the Halls of Power" shot to No. 1 in many of Amazon's Christian books categories after Sims's first interview on "The Glenn Beck Program."
Why it matters: Sims — a gifted storyteller who's a former White House and intelligence official — brings an unblinking Christian eye to secular Washington.
- "Jesus' death and resurrection are the most important events in human history," Sims writes. "So why on Earth would we make politicians the central characters in our story today?"
"Want to know what it's like inside the government's 'doomsday bunker,' or what's inside the president's nuclear football, or what it's like in the cabin of Air Force One, or inside the halls of the CIA?" says Sims, who's based in Alabama and is a Baptist minister's son.
- "This book is full of the kind of in-the-room details that political junkies love, but every story launches into a Biblical takeaway. These lessons will apply to every person's life — whether you're walking through the fire, dealing with anxiety or depression, or just trying to make sense of the current moment in American life through a Biblical lens."
8. 🍍 1 fun thing: $400 pineapple

What's red on the outside, yellow on the inside, and a $395.99 way to garnish your margarita?
- The Rubyglow pineapple, which Fresh Del Monte describes as "an ultra-premium luxury 'designer' fruit that appeals to high-end consumers."
Why it matters: Agriculture scientists and produce companies are constantly trying to innovate, improve their plants and tantalize the public, Axios' Jennifer A. Kingson writes.
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