The U.S. is enjoying one of the steepest and most widespread crime declines in modern history. Researchers aren't exactly sure why — but they have theories, Axios' Russell Contreras writes:

• Research points to factors that include declining alcohol and drug use, tech to help catch suspects (including drones and license-plate readers), an aging population, tougher prosecutions and more.

Why it matters: Knowing more about what's driving the violent-crime decline could help cities decide what to preserve as pandemic-era federal money fades.

📊 By the numbers: The U.S. violent-crime rate plunged 9.7% in 2025, the largest annual decline since FBI national estimates began 90 years ago.

• The murder rate fell 18.5% to 4.1 per 100,000 people, tying 1955 and 1956 for the lowest since national estimates began.
• And the decline hasn't stopped: An Axios analysis shows violent crime in big cities fell again in the first half of 2026.

💡 Criminologists describe a complicated picture of why crime is down. No one's sure, but several overlapping forces seem to be driving the drop:

1. Vice consumption cooled: Pandemic-era spikes in alcohol consumption, illicit drug use and firearm purchases — three factors linked to the 2020–2021 homicide surge — have receded.
2. Return to routine: COVID lockdowns disrupted community guardrails and displaced young men and teens. Employment and social routines have since stabilized.
3. Law enforcement tech boom: Police departments are using more AI tools, predictive analytics and platforms such as Palantir's Gotham to deploy resources and identify crime hotspots.

🧠 Under-the-radar demographic and health trends are also quietly reshaping public safety:

• The proportion of young people in America is declining, shrinking the demographic most historically linked to street crime.
• In a fascinating medical twist, the explosion of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (like Ozempic) has been clinically linked to decreased alcohol abuse and improved impulse control — two major factors in violent offenses.

What we're watching: Pandemic-era federal money for local crime-fighting efforts expires at the end of the year, putting more pressure on already short-staffed police departments.

• An economic downturn could create another headwind: Historically, worsening economic conditions mean more crime.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who'll hold a news conference today to detail even stronger U.S. sanctions against Iran, writes in a Financial Times op-ed posted yesterday: "At dawn begins an economic D-Day — the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary."

• Bessent, who taught economic history at Yale, compared the "full weight of American resolve" against Iran to decisions by FDR, Churchill and the Allied powers during World War II. He warned other countries against "appeasement of the regime."

The Treasury secretary argues that U.S. sanctions are working: "Inflation has rarely been higher." Reuters reported last week: "Offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have declined and prices have jumped … as the U.S. blockade has cut Tehran's shipments."

• Full op-ed (gift link).

Anthropic has a culture interview that includes a question about prioritizing mission over future share price, Axios' Madison Mills reports.

• CEO Dario Amodei has questioned whether newer employees are joining the AI lab for the right reasons, according to a source familiar with the conversations. The interview process gets at the heart of that tension.

Behind the scenes: Candidates are asked to discuss a moral quandary they've faced and how they handled it.

• One applicant, who spoke to Axios on the condition of anonymity, recalled being asked how they would feel if the company someday abandoned its AI ambitions for safety reasons, sending its stock to zero.

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Eli Lilly's next-generation weight-loss drug — retatrutide, which hasn't even been submitted for FDA review — is already spawning cheap knockoffs heavily touted online.

• Why it matters: Demand for weight-loss drugs is outpacing drug development and regulation, fueling a black-market frenzy, Axios' Tina Reed reports.

Catch up quick: Eli Lilly recently filed six lawsuits accusing med spas, at least one compounding pharmacy and other vendors of illegally selling counterfeit retatrutide as a weight-loss "hack."

• Retatrutide is still in clinical trials for obesity, type 2 diabetes and related conditions. No regulator has approved ​the drug for human use, Lilly told Reuters.

Influencers have been touting knockoffs dubbed "r3ta" or "triple G." A quick Google search nets dozens of companies selling the drug for as much as $600.

• Read on.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott delivered one of the starkest warnings yet from a Republican to the AI industry, saying data center companies deserve the backlash they're facing, Axios' Andrew Pantazi and Ben Geman report.

• Why it matters: Abbott is the latest governor to sharply change course on the AI data center boom he once enthusiastically courted, as local opposition becomes a potent political force.

🤠 Zoom out: Texas is among the hottest data center markets, with developers initially attracted by a pro-business state that has ample amounts of natural gas and renewables, energy infrastructure, and land.

• Abbott told ABC's Jonathan Karl on "This Week" that the backlash stems from the rapid buildout and developers' failure to win community support. "They basically dug their own grave for the problem that's been caused for them," Abbott said. "And that's why they got the backlash they deserve."

📻 President Trump defended data centers during an interview with his former fixer, Michael Cohen, aired yesterday on 77 WABC in New York.

• Trump told Cohen that the U.S. was leading China in AI "by a lot" and that data centers were not taking power from the grid.
• "They're making their own power plants. They're building the most beautiful, you've never seen power plants like this," Trump said. "Communities that don't take a data center, they're making a mistake" because data centers create "tremendous amounts of jobs and money," he added.
• Read on.

Only three of America's elected governors out of thousands have been Black — all Democrats and all men: current Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, former Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick.

• November ballots will have eight Black major-party gubernatorial nominees, AP reports.

The eight (three Rs and five Ds): Republicans Byron Donalds in Florida, Lisa Demuth in Minnesota and John James in Michigan … plus Democrats Aaron Ford in Nevada, Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, Jermaine Johnson in South Carolina, David Crowley in Wisconsin and Wes Moore, up for reelection in Maryland.

• Keep reading.

President Trump signaled that he's welcomed his former fixer, Michael Cohen, back into the fold in a friendly interview that aired in full yesterday.

• The interview was taped for Cohen's new radio show, "When You Know, You Know," on 77 WABC in New York. It's the first time Trump and Cohen have spoken publicly since Cohen was a key witness in the hush money trial that led to Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, Axios' Josephine Walker and Avery Lotz report.

👀 Trump and Cohen have repeatedly traded barbs over each other's alleged wrongdoing. Cohen previously called Trump a "conman" and a "predator," while the president said Cohen was a "rat."

• In the interview, they buried the hatchet. Trump blamed New York Attorney General Letitia James and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for Cohen's role in the hush money trial: "They threatened you with everything if you didn't go against Trump, and you took it back. I wouldn't even be talking to you right now if you didn't."

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Axios D.C.'s Gabe Hiatt reports from D.C.'s first IndyCar race:

Military flyovers buzzed above the National Mall. Race cars roared past the Capitol at 180 mph. President Trump waved the green flag.

• The race marking America's 250th birthday got an American winner. Florida driver Kyle Kirkwood celebrated alongside a bald eagle.

The National Mall felt like a giant national picnic. Fans sprawled across the grass and packed shaded tents between games of cornhole and ladder golf.

Trump took a ceremonial lap around the track in the presidential limousine, known as "The Beast."

Seven flyovers thundered overhead, including a low-flying Air Force One — shaking the ground.

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