Axios AM

November 11, 2020
🇺🇸 On Veterans Day ... Thank you for freedom — to our neighbors, colleagues and fellow Americans who served us, often at incalculable personal cost.
- Today's Smart Brevity™ count: 1,172 words ... 4½ minutes.
🚨 President Trump "launched a dramatic shake-up at the senior levels of the Pentagon ... installing three White House loyalists in influential roles," a day after firing his defense secretary, the WashPost reports.
- "The changes ... alarmed Democrats and some Republicans and promised to complicate a transition to a Biden administration." (See the Pentagon release.)
1 big thing: Trump's extreme endgame
With President Trump out of sight, a Marine stands guard outside the West Wing lobby yesterday. Photo: Tom Brenner/Reuters
With President Trump making little headway in courts, Republicans are hinting at an extreme last-chance way for him to cling to power using the Electoral College, Margaret Talev and Glen Johnson write.
In this long-shot scenario, Trump and his team could try to block secretaries of state in contested states from certifying results. That could allow legislatures in those states to try to appoint new electors who favor Trump over Joe Biden.
- If Trump were to pursue this course, it likely would become apparent the week before Thanksgiving, as states face deadlines to finalize election results.
Trump hasn't said he'll pursue this strategy. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo each noted yesterday that the election results don't become official until electors cast votes next month.
- Election totals don't become official until states certify them.
"At some point," McConnell said, "we’ll find out, finally, who was certified in each of these states, and the Electoral College will determine the winner and that person will be sworn in on January 20th. No reason for alarm."
- A Senate leadership aide said McConnell wasn't signaling an elector strategy, and was simply noting that litigation isn't uncommon.
Pompeo, who said there'll "be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration," independently raised the Electoral College during a State Department news conference.
- "When the process is complete, there’s going to be electors selected," he said. "There’s a process; the Constitution lays it out pretty clearly."
How it works: If a lawsuit successfully stops certification of results in a state, legislators could step into the void and pick a pro-Trump slate of electors.
- Among key swing states, Arizona and Georgia have GOP governors and legislatures. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have Democratic governors but GOP legislatures.
- The next step could be to try to get federal or state courts to enjoin secretaries of state from certifying results.
- Any move to provide an alternative slate of electors could force the first real test of the Electoral Count Act of 1887, and could land before the Supreme Court.
- Share this story.
🗞️ How it's playing ...

The N.Y. Times called top election officials in all 50 states: "No Evidence of Voter Fraud." (Subscription)
2. Four keys to Biden's victory
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Geography, rather than race or age, paints the clearest picture of President Trump's defeat — and illustrates the demographic trends that could hurt Republicans in future elections, Neal Rothschild and Stef Kight write:
1. Suburbs — which are growing, are racially and ethnically diverse, and are becoming new immigrant hubs — have shifted toward Democrats:
- Every sizable Pennsylvania county surrounding Philadelphia had a bigger Democratic margin than in 2016.
- That leftward shift repeated itself in areas around Detroit, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Dallas, Austin and Charlotte.
2. Blue areas got even bluer, while rural areas dug in for Trump.
- In Georgia, Biden's margin over Trump in populous Cobb and Gwinnett counties was 12 points higher than Clinton's in 2016.
3. The white working class vote in the Midwest didn't deliver victory for Biden, even though that was one of his key selling points in the Democratic primary.
4. Latino support for Trump grew in several key regions — not just in Miami. The results highlight the complexity and diversity of the Latino vote in the U.S.
- While Democrats' focus on Latino communities in Arizona might have helped Biden flip the state, they seemingly lost ground in Florida and Texas.
- "Hispanic erosion was catastrophic for Democrats in many places," Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report told Axios.
- Three heavily Latino counties in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, while still supporting Biden, all swung by 19+ points toward Trump compared to 2016.
3. The pandemic's toll on veterans
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
Here's something to think about on Veterans Day: As tough as the pandemic has been on most Americans, it has hit many U.S. veterans especially hard and made their struggles with mental health even tougher, Ashley Gold writes.
Isolation during the coronavirus pandemic has resulted in increased instances of depression and suicide among veterans as coronavirus cases spike all over the country.
- "Sleep problems, post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression are the top reported problems for the injured veteran population, and these are some of the challenges that are being exacerbated by COVID-19," said Melanie Mousseau, vice president of program operations and partnerships at the Wounded Warrior Project.
Several recent studies highlight the problems facing veterans:
- In a survey of 30,000 veterans wounded after 9/11, 52% said their mental health has gotten worse, and 49% said their physical health has become worse since they started social distancing during the pandemic.
- 61% said they felt more disconnected from friends, family and community, according to the survey by the Wounded Warrior Project.
- Veterans are delaying doctors' appointments too, with 70% reporting having in-person appointments canceled or postponed.
4. Pic du jour: Cinema of the future?

People watch "Jaws" in Hong Kong's first socially distanced outdoor entertainment park, which opened yesterday. Dive in.
5. Biden may make bigger mark abroad than at home

"I expect a Biden presidency to attempt to revive an alliance of interests and values with the other advanced high-income democracies, notably Europe," writes Martin Wolf, Financial Times chief economics commentator (subscription).
- "I expect it will put the Russian president and his ideological acolytes in central and eastern Europe back in a box marked 'hostile.'"
- "I expect, too, that Mr Biden will make an effort to create an engaged, yet demanding, relationship with China ... Somehow, the US and China must learn how to confront, compete and co-operate, at the same time."
6. ✈️ We're not moving about the country
Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly tells AP overall passenger revenue is down 70%.
- Business travel — normally more than a third of Southwest traffic — is off 90%.
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian suggested business travel might settle into a "new normal" that's 10% to 20% lower than before.
- TSA screenings yesterday were one-third of what they were the same day in 2019 — 800,000 vs. 2.5 million.
7. Election spending crushed records

Overall spending for the 2020 cycle more than doubled 2016's total, lobbyist Bruce Mehlman shows in one of his famous decks.
- See the deck, "America Decided … America’s Divided: Everything Changed and Nothing Changed."
8. CNN wins election week in America

CNN edged Fox News among total viewers for election week, averaging 5.9 million to Fox's 5.7 million and MSNBC's 4.6 million, AP reports.
- Fox viewers tuned out Biden's victory speech on Saturday night: CNN drew 13.5 million viewers, to MSNBC's 9 million and Fox's 3.1 million.
- On Election Day, Fox averaged 14.1 million viewers to CNN's 9.4 million and MSNBC 's 7.6 million, according to Nielsen.
Cable news outdrew the broadcast nets for election coverage: Tuesday's viewership was ABC 6.3 million ... NBC 5.8 million ... CBS 4.5 million.
- Go deeper: See the week's top 20 shows.
9. 102 years ago today

Today in 1918 ... Armistice Day at Fifth Avenue and 34th Street: This was a peace demonstration to celebrate the end of World War I. (Hat tip: Michael Beschloss)
10. ⛳ Greatest golf shot ever
Treat yourself to this video of Jon Rahm of Spain — at Augusta, during a practice round ahead of The Masters (starts Thursday) — skipping his ball across water for "one of the most preposterously unlikely hole-in-ones you'll see" (3.1 million views):

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