Democrats have a rare bright spot in their party's existential crisis: 2026, at least to them, looks pretty good, Axios' Alex Thompson writes.

• Why it matters: The party is full of angst over how to retake the White House and win back the voters they lost to President Trump over the past decade. But Dems feel increasingly sanguine about taking back the House next year.

Here's the five-part theory of the case for why Dems are optimistic about 2026, as laid out by more than a dozen of their top campaign staffers:

1. The "big, beautiful bill" is polling terribly.
2. Cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act are expected to make the "big, beautiful bill" even more unpopular.
3. Prices are still high despite Trump promising to bring them down. Economic approval had long been one of Trump's consistent political strengths. Now it's not.
4. Trump's deportations are getting blowback after going well beyond violent criminals and gang members. Polls show Republicans losing an advantage on one of their key issues in the 2024 election.
5. Democratic enthusiasm. A recent CNN poll found 72% Democrats and Democratic-aligned voters are extremely motivated to vote in the midterm elections, compared to just 50% of Republicans and Republican-aligned voters.

👓 Between the lines: Some Democrats are worried that victories in 2026 will stop the party from reckoning with its deeper issues and unpopularity.

• The party needs to change and victories will give party leaders excuses not to, they argue.

Zoom in: In 2026, Democrats only need to win a handful of seats to take back the House majority. They also just successfully recruited former Gov. Roy Cooper to run for Senate in North Carolina, as Axios first reported.

• Democrats believe they're getting the right kinds of candidates in the House: people with little connection to D.C. who can run against both parties.
• Midterms often favor the party out of power. Democrats have increasingly done better with college-educated voters, who also tend to vote more often in non-presidential elections.

🥊 Reality check: The Democratic Party is facing headwinds of historic unpopularity that will make it harder to win back the House.

• The Wall Street Journal recently found that 63% have an unfavorable view of Democrats — the highest percentage in the Journal's polling back to 1990.

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A gunman armed with a high-powered M4 rifle killed four people — including a police officer — at a Midtown Manhattan office building, 345 Park Ave., that houses the headquarters of Blackstone and the NFL.

• A Blackstone executive was among those killed, The Wall Street Journal reports.
• Another man was seriously injured and remains in critical condition.

The big picture: The building is in a vibrant business district, Midtown East — a short walk from Grand Central Terminal, and about a block east of St. Patrick's Cathedral.

• The shooting erupted around 6:30 p.m., when many workers would've been leaving for the day.

The man took an elevator to the 33rd-floor offices of the company that owned the building, Rudin Management, and shot and killed one person on that floor. The man then shot himself, the commissioner said. The building also holds offices of the financial services firm KPMG. (AP)

Police identified the gunman as Shane Tamura of Las Vegas and said he killed himself in the 33rd-floor offices of Rudin Management, a real estate firm that owns the building.

• NYPD commissioner Jessica Tisch said he had a "documented mental health history," but that the motive was still unknown. "We are working to understand why he targeted this particular location," she said.

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Trump's "announce first, details later" approach to trade deals has caught some global leaders off guard and led to contradictions about the billions of dollars the administration says foreign nations have pledged, Axios Macro co-author Courtenay Brown writes.

• Why it matters: These are not traditional, word-heavy trade deals with text agreed to by all negotiators.

Zoom in: News of deals comes via flashy announcements with big numbers and little specificity, leaving global investors wondering about the frameworks' durability.

• 🇪🇺 Europe: The White House says aluminum, steel and other metals imported from Europe would be subject to a 50% tariff, not the 15% agreed to in the deal announced Sunday. But European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that metal levies "would be cut."
• 🇯🇵 Japan: Trump said the Japanese committed to investing $550 billion in America, with the U.S. keeping 90% of the profits. But Japan's top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said the nation will invest — at most — 2% of that sum. The rest will come in the form of loans.
• 🇻🇳 Vietnam: Trump announced a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal, in which the nation would be subject to a tariff rate of 20%. Vietnamese officials have acknowledged the existence of a deal, though not the specific terms.

Reality check: An administration official says the trade frameworks settle what the White House sees as the biggest points of contention.

• The finer details are being hashed out, the official adds — noting that complete bilateral trade agreements aren't realistic given the short time frame.

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This map shows how much public TV stations across the country relied on federal funding to operate, Alex Fitzpatrick and Erin Davis write from data collected by a former NPR staffer and shared with Axios.

• Why it matters: Many public TV and radio stations find themselves with big budget holes after Congress rescinded $1.1 billion in Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) funding.

🧮 By the numbers: For hundreds of stations with available data, CPB grants made up about 10.3% of U.S. public TV stations' overall funding as of fiscal 2023, and 4.1% for radio stations.

• That share is much greater for some specific stations. It's over 90% for KCUW in Pendleton, Oregon; KUHB in St. Paul, Alaska; and WVLS in Dunmore, West Virginia.

Explore the data: Interactive maps for public TV, radio.

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff told Axios' Ina Fried in an interview that companies and workers aren't set up for the current pace of technological shift.

• Why it matters: "Change management is extremely difficult ... because the level of transformation that is happening is unlike anything we've ever seen," he said.

Benioff sees the glass as more than half full, recently outlining an optimistic vision of our shared AI future in an op-ed in the Financial Times.

• Benioff told Ina the company plans to add thousands of sales staff even as it relies more on AI.

Full interview ... Get Axios AI+.

For the 12th straight year, Walmart topped Fortune's Global 500 list of the world's largest companies based on revenue.

• The U.S. holds a slim lead in the number of companies on the list, with 138 compared to China's 130.

The top 10:

1. 🇺🇸 Walmart
2. 🇺🇸 Amazon
3. 🇨🇳 State Grid
4. 🇸🇦 Saudi Aramco
5. 🇨🇳 China National Petroleum
6. 🇨🇳 Sinopec
7. 🇺🇸 UnitedHealth Group
8. 🇺🇸 Apple
9. 🇺🇸 CVS Health
10. 🇺🇸 Berkshire Hathaway

🔭 Between the lines: The number of women CEOs at companies on the list reached a record high of 33 — up five from the year before.

• Full list.

Vice President Vance is headlining high-dollar fundraisers for the Republican National Committee today in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and Big Sky, Mont., an official tells Axios..

• Axios is told each event is raising over $2 million, for a total haul today of over $4 million.

The big picture: Besides fortifying the party to defend House and Senate majorities in next year's midterms, the swings are helping Vance build a national network ahead of an expected presidential run in 2028.

• Over the five months since being named RNC finance chair, Vance has made fundraising stops in Houston, Dallas, Manhattan, Atlanta, Nashville, San Diego and Nantucket.

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The rest of the country will soon learn why Big Tex — the legendary 55-foot icon of the Texas State Fair — is a big deal, Axios Dallas' Naheed Rajwani-Dharsi writes.

• Why it matters: Big Tex's size 96 boots are on the road to D.C., where they will be displayed in a Smithsonian exhibit about state fairs.

Big Tex's boots rarely leave the state. They last traveled to Minneapolis in 1953.

• Big Tex has multiple pairs of boots. The pair heading to D.C. is old, a spokesperson for the State Fair of Texas tells Axios. He's worn his current pair of boots since 2023.

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