Top White House and GOP leadership officials tell us the chances of a market-rattling government shutdown are rising by the day — and were even before Trump threatened at his raucous Phoenix rally on Tuesday night to use a shutdown as leverage to get funding for a border wall.
Goldman Sachs, in guidance to investors last Friday, pegged the odds at 50/50. This strikes us as high, but the dynamics are ominous:
Based on funding mechanisms, the showdown could come either in September or December — or both:
Democrats feel certain they have Trump boxed in, and see no reason to compromise/help:
Be smart: With the departure of Steve Bannon, Trump is surrounded more and more by conventional/mainstream folks, which could actually make him feel more compelled to buck them.
We've long been a 50-50 country. But when it comes to Trump, we're looking more like a 60-40 country.
I was struck by this rat-tat-tat series of findings in a new Quinnipiac University Poll (Aug. 17-22; 1,514 voters nationwide; margin: +/-3.1 points).
Why it matters: "Elected on his strength as a deal-maker, [Trump is] now overwhelmingly considered a divider."
There were about 1.3 million active-duty military personnel at the end of June, with 200,000 of those stationed around the world, Axios visuals editor Lazaro Gamio reports.
"The permanent campaign has been a fixture of the modern presidency for more than a generation ... But ... Trump ... has scaled new heights," the L.A. Times' Mark Z. Barabak writes in the paper's lead story, "Trump wages a campaign without end":
"Violence in Charlottesville leads to soul-searching at ACLU," by AP's Tom Hays and Larry Neumeister:
"Due out this fall, ... this is the 10th anniversary of the original iPhone," Bloomberg's Mark Gurman writes. "[T]he new iPhone won't be a case-study of innovation, more a matter of perfecting features that are already out there in rival devices. Time and again, Apple has followed this 'best, not first' philosophy."
"Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars: An exclusive look at how Alphabet understands its most ambitious artificial intelligence project," by The Atlantic's Alexis Madrigal:
... is in Yemen, overrun by ISIS and al Qaeda, adjacent to Saudi Arabia in the tip of the Arabian Peninsula, across from the Horn of Africa. Text with a New York Times graphic that's worthy of your click:
"Repeated bombings have crippled bridges, hospitals and factories. Many doctors and civil servants have gone unpaid for more than a year. Malnutrition and poor sanitation have made the Middle Eastern country vulnerable to diseases that most of the world has confined to the history books.""The United Nations [last month] called the situation the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with more than 10 million people who require immediate assistance.""In just three months, cholera has killed nearly 2,000 people and infected more than a half million, one of the world's largest outbreaks in the past 50 years.""If infection numbers continue to rise, researchers fear that the cases could ultimately rival the largest outbreak, in Haiti, which infected at least 750,000 people after a devastating earthquake in 2010."Why it matters: "As the state fails, 'the manifestation of that now is cholera, but there could be in the future other epidemics that Yemen could be at the center of.'"
Signs keep popping up that we're at the end of this long bull run ... Here's another warning shot: Analysts at the Wall Street behemoths HSBC, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley "see mounting evidence that global markets are in the last stage of their rallies before a downturn in the business cycle," per Bloomberg:
Be smart: A Bloomberg video points out that investors are looking for the "next piece of sugar," which could include progress on tax cuts.
"Across the nation, kids of all skill levels, in virtually every team sport, are getting swept up by a youth sports economy that increasingly resembles the pros and at increasingly early ages," Sean Gregory writes in TIME's cover story: