The rise of artificial intelligence will boost the global economy a cumulative $19.9 trillion by 2030, according to a new IDC study released Tuesday.

Why it matters: The study takes a broad look at AI's impact, including the revenue of AI companies, AI's impacts on consumer spending and the massive spending on infrastructure needed to power AI systems.

By the numbers: IDC, the market-forecasting giant, projects that AI — including but not limited to generative AI — will boost the global economy by $4.9 trillion in 2030, up from just below $1.2 trillion this year, IDC group VP Rick Villars told Axios.

• If so, that means AI-related activity could account for 3.5% of global GDP, based on IMF estimates for the global economy.

How it works: IDC is calculating more than just how much revenue is generated by AI companies themselves. In addition to direct spending, IDC's figure includes two other categories: indirect spending and induced spending.

• Direct spending includes not only the revenue that AI companies take in, but also what they spend on chips and hardware.
• Indirect spending includes construction needed to to create data centers, the power needed to run those centers and related hiring, as well as the gains from efficiencies and added revenue by adopting AI.
• Induced spending accounts for the extra economic activity from those employed by the AI industry or those who benefit from advances in AI.
• In total, IDC estimates that with indirect and induced spending, every new dollar spent on business-related AI solutions and services in 2030 will generate $4.60 into the global economy.

What they're saying: Villars told Axios that AI is already boosting the economy.

• "It is growing, but it's already significant," Villars said.

Yes, but: This model doesn't account for broader changes in jobs or wages from the adoption of AI. Many expect that AI could put pressure on wages and lead to some amount of job loss.

• IDC's own "Future of Work Employees Survey" found 48% of workers expect some of their work to be automated over the next two years, with another 15% expecting most of their tasks to be automated. Only 3% of those surveyed expect AI to fully automate their job over that time frame.
• "That's obviously an important conversation to have," Villars said.

Microsoft is increasing its investment in AI for the Middle East and Africa, in conjunction with Abu Dhabi-based G42.

Why it matters: Microsoft wants its technology — and U.S. tech more broadly — to beat China in the battle to power the world's AI systems, especially in developing countries.

Driving the news: Microsoft and G42 will jointly fund a center to identify and develop best practices and standards to responsibly use AI in the Middle East and the Global South — an effort that also has the backing of Abu Dhabi's Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Technology Council.

• Microsoft is also establishing an AI for Good research lab in Abu Dhabi, similar to ones it has elsewhere in the world.
• Microsoft announced a major partnership with G42 last year.

Between the lines: Microsoft's investment in the region — and the partnership with G42 — is key to the global battle over whose AI technology will be used outside of the U.S., Europe and China.

• It's widely assumed that the U.S. and Europe will insist on systems designed in one of those areas, while China will rely on its homegrown technologies.
• The battle to power AI systems for the rest of the world, especially in developing countries, is likely to be intense.

What they're saying: "Part of building a global coalition ... involves demonstrating our commitment as an industry and as a country to ensure that AI gets to work quickly" to solve practical problems around the world, Microsoft president Brad Smith told Axios.

Zoom in: Smith noted that G42 has agreed to replace equipment from China's Huawei, to comply with any US export controls and to adopt everything President Biden called for in his executive order on AI.

• "It puts Abu Dhabi — as a place — in a position to help be a bridge from Washington to the rest of the world and a bridge between the Global North and the Global South."

Zoom out: The fight over whose AI systems are used around the world is likely to also become a fight over values and an ongoing debate over whether American and Chinese companies will be willing to adjust their systems to reflect the values of a particular country or population.

• "The United States is competing with China, not only for leadership and technology, but for leadership and technology values," Smith said. "And you can't win a contest for technology values unless your values are clear, unless you talk with others about them, and unless you help people appreciate that your values speak to their practical needs."

What's next: I'll have a chance to talk about these and other issues on stage with Brad Smith and Carme Artigas from the U.N. High-level Advisory Body on AI, next week at the Clinton Global Initiative.

• Intel announced an expanded deal with Amazon to make AI chips for Amazon Web Services, but also said it was delaying for about two years its plans to build new factories in Poland and Germany. (CNN)
• Microsoft is expanding its generative AI suite to include automated agents, adding features within its Copilot assistants and unveiling a new tool to help multiple workers collaboratively interact with artificial intelligence. (Axios)
• OpenAI said Monday that the safety committee of its board will be made up solely of independent directors, a move that means CEO Sam Altman will leave it. (Axios)
• Apple on Monday released the next versions of its operating systems that power the iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch. The company also got clearance from the FDA for its new sleep apnea detection feature for the Apple Watch. (Axios)
• Instagram announced a major overhaul of its handling of accounts for teens, giving parents more control. (Axios)

The NHL's defending champion, the Florida Panthers, has posted a one-hour soothing video of the Stanley Cup basking by the ocean.