Axios 2028

January 11, 2026
π Happy New Year and welcome back to our weekly newsletter guiding you through the next presidential election, starting with Democrats. Today: 1,754 words, 6Β½ minutes.
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1 big thing: π₯ Rahm's ready for a fight
π₯ WATER VALLEY, Miss. β Rahm Emanuel is coming, whether Democrats like it or not.
- "There's two wings in our party right now, and I hope to dominate one of them," Emanuel, the fiery former Chicago mayor, told Axios in Mississippi last week as he tested his potential 2028 run for president with a focus on education.
- "There's a resistance wing dominated by Gavin [Newsom]. And there's a renewal wing that will be as forceful in fighting for America as the other wing is in fighting Trump."
Why it matters: Emanuel β chief of staff under President Obama and a senior adviser to President Clinton β is betting that come 2028, the country and Democratic primary voters will be less focused on President Trump than the party's base is now.
- He's hoping that his combination of being moderate on policy with a decidedly not-moderate temperament will distinguish himself among the other center-left candidates in the 2028 field.
- In his pitch, Emanuel zings Trump and Republicans, but also targets other factions of his party β old and new.
Emanuel got a warm reception Wednesday night in Water Valley, a rural town of about 3,500 a half-hour drive from the University of Mississippi in Oxford.
- Brandon Presley, Mississippi's Democratic nominee for governor in 2023 who ran the most competitive Democratic campaign in the state since 1999, hosted Emanuel at his home with locals and then introduced him at a town hall that drew more than 100 people.
- Emanuel got lots of head nods as he honed in on his education plans β including expanding the school day and year, focusing on phonics and other basics β topics he's touted for months while plotting a 2028 run.
π There were two reasons for Emanuel's visit: Mississippi, long one of the nation's worst-ranked states in student test scores, has increased reading levels over the past decade through some education changes he supports.
- And the state β along with the rest of the South β will be key in a Democratic presidential primary.
π Reality check: Water Valley is in rural Mississippi but residents said it isn't politically representative of other rural areas in the deep-red state.
- One attendee at Emanuel's town hall noted that Water Valley boasted a business branded as "the only queer book store" in Mississippi.
Zoom in: Emanuel got the biggest applause of the night when he pledged to ban social media for all kids aged 16 and younger.
- "This is a drug," he said. "It is nothing else but a drug."
- "Democrats used to have a 20-point advantage on education over Republicans that has disappeared," he said later. "You cannot tell me what Kamala Harris and Joe Biden's educational policy was, or what other Democratic leaders' education reform policies are."
π» Emanuel also told Axios the Obama administration became far too cozy with the tech industry, which he said contributed to those companies having too much power today.
The intrigue: Emanuel's steps toward a 2028 campaign have divided Democratic operatives who've known him for decades.
- Longtime Democratic operative Ron Klain told a House panel last summer: "I think [Emanuel] will head fake a lot but I do not think in the end Rahm will run."
- David Axelrod, who's known Emanuel for decades and worked with him in Obama's White House, told Axios: "My read is that he's very serious and is on a year-end timetable for a go, no-go decision. But he's absolutely doing many of the things someone who is serious would need to do to take that next step."
Prospective Democratic presidential candidates often consult ex-presidents such as Obama and Clinton for advice, but Emanuel is unique in having been a sounding board for both.
- "I've talked to Clinton and Obama," he said, "but I gotta cut my own way."
β Alex Thompson
2. π Shapiro squeezed at home
Democrats and activists in Pennsylvania are trying to leverage Gov. Josh Shapiro's long-rumored presidential ambitions to try to push him to the left on a key healthcare issue.
Why it matters: Shapiro is the only potential 2028 contender who's also running for reelection as a governor in a swing state this year. He's facing a tricky political challenge β balancing his national aspirations with the demands of his home state.
π° Just before Shapiro launched his reelection campaign β a bid that's being watched closely by national party insiders β Democratic lawmakers quietly pressured him to boost employee pay for in-home care for the elderly and the disabled in his 2026 budget proposal.
- Such workers "deserve recognition and fair compensation," most of the lawmakers wrote to Shapiro in private letters, which Axios obtained.
πͺ Mia Haney, CEO of the Pennsylvania Homecare Association, isn't hiding the fact she's trying to use Shapiro's ambitions to turn the screws on him. She helped organize lawmakers' lobbying effort.
- "We know that Governor Shapiro has high aspirations, and we are supportive of those aspirations to the extent that he is prioritizing his responsibilities and the need ... here in Pennsylvania," she told Axios in an interview.
- "We can't be ignoring these massive issues here in Pennsylvania and then running a political platform nationally."
By the numbers: Raising worker wages, which Shapiro could help make possible by increasing the state's Medicaid reimbursement rate to in-home care agencies, may be so expensive it requires a tax increase β a risky move in a swing state.
- Home care advocates say current pay is so low that more than 100,000 shifts are unfilled every month.
- Shapiro's administration estimated it could cost $850 million-plus to address the labor shortage.
Shapiro spokesperson Will Simons said the governor "understands the importance of addressing challenges with our health care workforce, which is why he proposed and secured new funding to increase wages and benefits for some direct care workers in the 2025-26 budget" and has called for lawmakers to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.
β Holly Otterbein
3. π Warren's 2028 vision
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is plotting to shape the Democratic Party in her populist image after largely lying low over the last year.
Why it matters: No, Warren isn't running for president in 2028. But as one of the most influential voices on the progressive left, she wants more of a say in the party's next chapter.
π€ She's planning an aggressive speech about the Democratic Party's future Monday at the National Press Club in D.C. as part of her reemergence. Her plan is to try to influence the direction of the party ahead of the midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race, we're told.
- She'll warn that Democrats shouldn't cozy up to wealthy elites as the party tries to find its way out of the electoral wilderness, according to a preview of the speech shared with Axios.
π£ Warren is reasserting her voice at a time when a debate is raging within the Democratic Party over whether to embrace an economically populist, tax-the-rich vision such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's β or back a moderate, pro-business agenda to lure disenchanted Trump voters.
- Warren, who endorsed Mamdani's mayoral campaign, is firmly in the progressive camp, which she'll underscore in her speech.
β Holly Otterbein
4. π« Trail mix: Catching up on the pre-campaign
A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom told the New York Times his fitness routine: "Every morning, I wake up, I slice a lemon, cold water, and I make a smoothie. I only eat fruit till noon, consistently. Berries, banana. I use bands, not weights. I haven't touched a weight in years."
- Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly appeared on "The Daily Show" and "60 Minutes." "I'm not backing down," he said in response to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's push to demote the retired Navy captain.
- Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro raised more than $400,000 in online donations in the first two days of his reelection campaign.
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear made "reigniting the American dream" the theme of his State of the Commonwealth address.
- New York Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez condemned a pro-Hamas chant at a protest outside a synagogue in Queens.
- Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin called on President Trump to declare a national housing emergency and invoke the Defense Production Act to spur more residential development.
- Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy pushed for Democrats to reject funding for the Department of Homeland Security unless changes aimed at reining in immigration agents are imposed.
- Former Vice President Harris is kicking off the second stage of her book tour on Tuesday in New Orleans.
- Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will speak at Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb's inauguration ceremony for his second term on Thursday. He's also holding a town hall Friday in La Crosse, Wis.
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker will be in North Carolina and South Carolina from Friday through Jan. 19 for events supporting former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper's Senate campaign and town halls. He'll also be the keynote speaker at an NAACP King Day event to honor the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. at South Carolina's statehouse. California Rep. Ro Khanna also will be at the King Day event.
β Holly Otterbein
5. π 1 fun thing: Polis' D&D nerdom
Netflix's hit TV show "Stranger Things" follows kids in the 1980s who love Dungeons & Dragons and wind up in their own supernatural adventure.
- With the show ending its fifth and final season, we couldn't think of a politician more qualified to weigh in on the finale β and his own Dungeons & Dragons days βΒ than Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
- "That was me in the 1980s, absolutely, 110%," Polis told us about the "Stranger Things" kids. "Of course, I didn't have a real 'Upside Down' to contend with."
Polis is openly proud of his nerdom. As governor he's attended a local Comic Con and a regular Dungeons & Dragons game at the Glenwood Springs Branch library.
- He's also incorporated "Stranger Things" into his policy fights with President Trump, saying Trump's tariffs have pushed the country into the Upside Down.
- "I loved playing Dragons with my friends," he said. "I usually played a cleric in many, many great adventures. I played with different characters over the years. And then my kids got into it."
- Polis said he "loved" the "Stranger Things" finale and that given his children's embrace of the game, he liked that the show ended with a new generation of kids playing D&D.
β Alex Thompson
Thanks to David Lindsey, Axios managing editor for politics, for orchestrating. Edited by Arthur MacMillan.
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