Axios 2028

March 08, 2026
โ๏ธ Happy Daylight Saving Time and welcome back to our weekly newsletter guiding you through the next presidential election, starting with Democrats. 1,688 words, 6ยฝ minutes.
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1 big thing: ๐ฌ Ken Martin's DNC debacle
Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin is facing a growing crisis of confidence within his party, more than two dozen Democrats tell Axios.
- ๐ฐ Donors, operatives and some DNC members are questioning his leadership, fundraising ability and handling of the party's still-secret "autopsy" of the 2024 election loss.
Why it matters: The DNC's dysfunction likely won't affect this year's midterms, and Democrats have overperformed in recent elections. But it could have huge consequences for the party's ability to meet the challenges of the 2028 presidential race.
- The DNC will play a crucial role in organizing Democrats' 2028 primary and in building the infrastructure for the party's next presidential nominee.
- But the DNC has been in a perpetual state of near-insolvency, mired by internal finger-pointing since the 2024 election, and Martin hasn't been able to fix the problems.
- It's not just the usual DNC critics โ Martin's allies and would-be allies who want him to succeed say they're increasingly worried and believe he hasn't created space for candid feedback and a course correction.
๐ฌ Zoom in: Democratic sources tell Axios that Martin has shown a thin skin and that he personalizes criticism in a way that can be self-defeating.
- Many DNC officials, donors, and other Democrats believe honest feedback would be greeted with hostility.
- Thirteen months into his tenure as DNC chair, the limelight โ and the criticism that has come with it โ appear to have taken a toll on Martin, who often seems melancholy and put-upon, his allies told Axios.
There's also been internal frustration about Martin's reliance on longtime allies from Minnesota, whom some insiders refer to as the "Minnesota Mafia."
- Some Democrats say Martin hasn't grown to trust many people in the DNC office and has become more insular in recent months.
National Democrats also say Martin has a habit of over-promising and under-delivering.
- He frustrated many party leaders last fall by promising much more money to Virginia and New Jersey for their elections than the party was able to afford. The party made historic investments, but the exaggerated commitments annoyed many national Democrats.
As recently as January, Martin was still privately pushing the idea of a midterm Democratic convention despite being advised that he was committing money that the party didn't have.
- The DNC recently canceled its midterm convention plans.
- Martin told those inside the DNC this wasn't because of the expected costs, but because state parties wanted to focus on this year's primaries instead.
Many Democrats agree on one thing: The DNC chair's first priority is fundraising, and Martin is falling short on that.
- The DNC has teetered on the edge of insolvency during the past year. It has about $15 million cash on hand but is more than $17 million in debt.
- Last October, the DNC took out $15 million in loans to help keep the committee afloat.
Leaders privately have discussed the possibility of limited layoffs in the coming months. A DNC official told Axios the committee has no plans for staff layoffs.
- Some Democrats have bristled at Martin's media-heavy schedule while the party is struggling financially.
- Several donors told Axios they met with Martin or had a call with him early in his tenure, but haven't heard from him since.
Would-be allies say Martin has held a grudge against donors who opposed him in the race for chair last year.
- One donor who didn't support Martin put it bluntly: "He needs all of us, and he's not asking us to do anything."
๐ฃ What they're saying: DNC spokesperson Mia Ehrenberg said Martin "has invested early and aggressively in the Democratic Party's infrastructure .... Winning now, in 2028, and for years to come is the DNC's North Star. Anything else is just gossip and noise."
Reality check: It's always difficult for a party chair to raise money in the first year after the party loses the White House, as Democrats did in 2016 and 2024.
- Martin had good fundraising initially, but he's been burdened by a $20 million-plus debt from Kamala Harris' campaign.
Donors and activists are angry about Donald Trump's return to the presidency, and the DNC is often a convenient punching bag.
- ๐ณ๏ธ Despite the swipes at Martin's leadership, Democrats have been winning up and down the ballot over the past year.
- The party has benefitted from rage over Trump's policies, and Martin has invested a large amount of money in state parties.
โ Alex Thompson, Holly Otterbein
2. ๐ก Part 2: Dems' "autopsy" furor
โก๏ธ Few issues will set off Martin's critics more quickly than his handling of the DNC's "autopsy" report on the 2024 campaign.
- They say it was a debacle that reflects larger problems with his leadership that need to be addressed before the presidential campaign officially starts next year.
- Allies advised Martin not to do an autopsy or promise to publicize it, but he did both.
Martin entrusted his confidante Paul Rivera with the task despite Rivera's lack of experience on recent presidential campaigns.
- Some people interviewed for the report said the process felt disorganized, and that Rivera appeared to tell people what they wanted to hear when he interviewed them.
- ๐คจ Many Democratic campaign and super PAC leaders from the 2024 presidential race told Axios they never spoke with Rivera.
- Late last summer, Rivera's team made hasty attempts to contact some top Democrats before the report's intended release.
- After repeated delays on one of his signature promises, Martin said in December he wouldn't publish the report โ infuriating many Democrats and teams for potential 2028 candidates.
- ๐ต It also further alienated some donors. "You spent donor money to do the autopsy and then didn't provide" it, one told Axios. "It's not your money."
Between the lines: People briefed on the report told Axios there essentially are two versions: a large "Frankenstein monster" of documents that includes interviews without any narrative or through-line, and a shorter, vague document that's similar to what Democrats have said publicly.
- Martin hiding the document has made it an object of fascination among activists who believe it includes details the DNC is hiding for nefarious purposes.
- ๐ซต Martin argued in December that releasing the report would result in more finger-pointing and wouldn't help the party move forward. Many of his allies agree.
Even now, few people outside of Martin's inner circle have read the autopsy, but he says its recommendations are being implemented.
โ Alex Thompson, Holly Otterbein
3. ๐ซ Trail mix: This week in the pre-campaign
A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom promoted his new book in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Nevada and his own state. At one event he compared Israel to an "apartheid state" but he emphasized he was referencing New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman's use of "apartheid" in a recent column.
- Newsom also appeared on "The Adam Friedland Show," and the progressive host teased Newsom for claiming he was a "complete loser" as a kid.
- Former Vice President Harris and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker spoke at the Chicago memorial service for the Rev. Jesse Jackson. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Newsom also attended.
- Congressional Black Caucus chair Yvette Clarke had tough words for Pritzker, saying his "effort to tip the scales in Illinois' U.S. Senate race is beyond frustrating." He's financially backing Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, while the CBC is supporting Rep. Robin Kelly. Both women are Black.
- Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego waded into the messy Maine Senate primary, endorsing progressive Graham Platner over Gov. Janet Mills.
- Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro received campaign donations from hundreds of business leaders last year, including some with interests in Harrisburg. Shapiro also recorded a video message for the North Dakota Democratic Party's convention this weekend.
- California Rep. Ro Khanna introduced a wealth tax on billionaires with Sen. Bernie Sanders that would fund social programs.
- Former Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo penned a New York Times op-ed arguing that an AI-driven unemployment crisis is not inevitable, but the answer "isn't to slow down" innovation.
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear headed to Detroit to meet with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and members of the state's Legislative Black Caucus. He's also trekking to New Hampshire this weekend to fundraise for Rep. Chris Pappas' Senate campaign.
- A clip of New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker questioning then DHS Secretary Kristi Noem received more than 1.6 million views on YouTube, as Axios' Stephen Neukam reported.
- Moore gave the keynote speech at a Legal Defense Fund panel in Alabama to commemorate the 61st anniversary of "Bloody Sunday."
- Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg stumped for Pennsylvania congressional candidate Bob Brooks in the Lehigh Valley. Buttigieg is the latest potential presidential candidate to be profiled in The Atlantic.
- New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is headlining a town hall Sunday night in upstate New York with Rep. Pat Ryan as AOC weighs whether to run for Senate or president in 2028.
- Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly is headlining Washoe Democrats' annual fundraiser in Reno, Nev., on Sunday.
- Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin will appear at the Polk County Democratic Party dinner in Iowa on April 7.
4. 1 fun thing: ๐ค ChatGPT's take on Gallego
๐ง We occasionally turn to AI to assess the messaging of potential 2028 presidential contenders. Today's subject: Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego.
We uploaded more than 10,000 words to ChatGPT from dozens of Gallego's speeches and interviews to see if it detected any illuminating patterns and themes.
๐ค "His main distinction is that he talks like a witness, not a commentator โ and he delivers that witness testimony with moral-clarity framing that's built for repetition," ChatGPT observed.
"So if you had to name the 'Gallego thing' as a speaker: combat vet/working-class authenticity + courtroom certainty + slogan repetition โ delivered in a blunt, non-delicate register that signals he's not performing 'politician voice.' "
Gallego has go-to phrases such as, "Let's be clear," and variations of "working-class people."
But ChatGPT said one of the most distinctive things about Gallego is this: "He's unusually willing (for a senator) to use casual insults."
Thanks to David Lindsey, Axios managing editor for politics, for orchestrating. Edited by Arthur MacMillan.
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