Top aides for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' failed 2024 presidential campaign have a warning for Democratic governors eyeing a 2028 run: Don't wait too long after November's midterms to jump into the race.

Why it matters: In the coming months, Govs. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Wes Moore of Maryland, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Andy Beshear of Kentucky will face a dilemma similar to what confronted DeSantis after his 2022 reelection:

• 🤔 Do they get in the race early — before their postelection legislative sessions start — and risk not being focused on their constituents? Or do they wait until late spring to rack up policy wins and give their opponents a head start on a White House run?
• Their allies and some of their teams are already debating which path to take, Democratic sources tell us.

Driving the news: Many DeSantis aides now regret how they handled the months between DeSantis' commanding reelection victory in November 2022 and his entry into the presidential race in late May 2023, several told Axios.

• Donald Trump announced his reelection bid in November 2022 and began attacking DeSantis while the governor was scoring state policy wins and promoting a new book — but falling behind in the presidential race.

"In this atmosphere, you can't be president by just being a great governor and boasting about your legislative wins," said Ryan Tyson, a Republican pollster and president of the Tyson Group who was a senior adviser to DeSantis.

• "That's how they did it in the '90s — not anymore. Enough of the voters in these early nomination contests will be driven by emotion more so than logic."

A former DeSantis aide added: "There were diminishing returns for DeSantis passing conservative legislation [in Florida's 2023 session] because of his preexisting, extensive record."

• "I don't think it's very helpful for a Democratic governor waiting to announce for 2028 to use the legislative session to just keep doing more of what they've already been doing," the former DeSantis aide said.
• "It would have to be new stuff to command media attention or fix a potential political vulnerability."

👉 Reality check: The 2028 Democratic primary is different from the 2024 Republican primary.

• DeSantis was running against a former president who was still extraordinarily popular with the GOP base.
• The legal indictments against Trump led many Republican voters to rally around him.
• Trump also made the unorthodox move to go negative against DeSantis in paid and earned media before the Florida governor got in the race.

🔎 Between the lines: If Democratic governors declare their candidacies before their legislative sessions are over, they could face attacks from rivals in the presidential race in addition to rebellions within their states.

• Ambitious state legislators could hold up bills and criticize newly elected governors for focusing on national politics just months after winning reelection.

We asked Shapiro, Moore, Beshear and Pritzker if they had committed to finishing their state legislative sessions before declaring whether they were running for president.

• None of them directly answered the question.
• Shapiro spokesperson Manuel Bonder told us: "While we appreciate team DeSantis taking a break from banning abortion and rigging our democracy to offer unsolicited advice, I'll repeat what the governor has made clear: The midterms run through Pennsylvania, and the only thing we are focused on is winning up and down the ballot this November."

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— Alex Thompson

Dozens of Latino lawmakers and leaders are pressuring Beshear, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association, to invest $10 million in the Texas governor's race, according to a letter to Beshear that we obtained.

• 🤠 Texas state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who polls suggest is running a strong challenge to Gov. Greg Abbott (R), is trying to become Texas' first Latino governor. Beshear must decide soon how to invest the DGA's cash in the 36 states with governor's races in November.

Why it matters: Beshear is considering a presidential run in 2028. Latino voters are critical in the early primary states of Nevada and New Mexico, and are a key swing vote in general elections.

• 💰 Beshear's decision on where to spend tens of millions in DGA money this fall is an early test of his political instincts — and whether he can carry out an effective campaign strategy without making enemies that could cost him in a 2028 primary.

Zoom in: The signees of the letter — including Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, a potential rival of Beshear's in the presidential primary — wrote that "not investing in Texas would not only send a message to Latino voters in 2026, but it sends a message to Latino voters heading into 2028."

• "No other candidate in recent history has come this close to winning the Governor's Mansion in Texas, and we are proud that it is now a Latina that made this a close race, but unfortunately, she has done so without real investment from DGA," the letter says of Hinojosa.

🗳️ There are 36 state governors' races this fall, including several in 2028 swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Georgia. And then there's Texas, where a Democrat hasn't won a statewide race in three decades.

• It's unclear how much money the DGA has for the November elections, but in the last midterm cycle, 2022, the DGA spent about $170 million.
• Texas is one of the most expensive states to campaign in, and Democratic leaders in Washington have been skeptical about flipping the state blue.
• Abbott, who is running for a fourth term as governor, has $67 million cash on hand compared with Hinojosa's $3 million, according to the latest finance report in July. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report labels the race "likely" Republican.
• Even so, most recent polls show Abbott with less than 50% support and Hinojosa within 5 points.

What they're saying: "While there will certainly be more investment, announcing a figure would only advantage the [Republican Governors Association] in any counter-investment. I look forward to working with the signees of the letter in supporting Gina," Beshear told us in a statement.

• He said Hinojosa "has proven herself to be a great candidate" and that the DGA is "currently investing by paying expenses and recently providing staff."
• DGA communications director Sam Newton added: "As the race in Texas becomes increasingly competitive in the final stretch, we will be ready to capitalize on any opportunity to make a real difference."

Zoom out: The letter to Beshear is also signed by several members of Congress from Texas, including Rep. Greg Casar, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and Rep. Joaquin Castro.

• They argued that an Abbott victory wouldn't affect just Texas but the entire U.S. House of Representatives.
• They wrote that Abbott will further gerrymander Texas and take away up to 10 more Democratic-held congressional seats over the next four years.
• "The only way to stop it is to elect Gina Hinojosa as governor of Texas, who has promised to veto illegal maps," they wrote.

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— Alex Thompson

A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:

• 🚛 Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg got a preview of potential 2028 attacks from Vice President Vance last week when Vance accused Buttigieg of stymying enforcement of English-proficiency requirements for truck drivers. A Buttigieg spokesperson told us that Vance's comments "came right after Pete posted" a viral attack on the vice president over high housing costs.
• Buttigieg also held a town hall in Cincinnati with Mayor Aftab Pureval today. And he's campaigning for Democrats on Saturday in Arizona and on Sept. 13 in New Mexico, a new early primary state.
• 🌶️ Pritzker likewise turned up in New Mexico on Tuesday to help fundraise for gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland, who called him a "friend" in a social media post.
• 🎲 Former Vice President Kamala Harris is gearing up to travel to Nevada next month to stump for gubernatorial candidate Aaron Ford, Politico first reported. She brushed off red-state Democrats who recently snubbed her, telling MS Now, "I support them in doing whatever they need to do to win."
• 🐊 New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Florida Senate nominee Angie Nixon, a progressive who won her primary in a historic upset but faces steep odds in November. It's a notable pick given that people familiar with AOC's endorsement process say she typically backs people she believes can win.
• Gallego and California Rep. Ro Khanna defended Nixon, who is Black, against racist attacks by an ally of President Trump.
• 🐄 Shapiro went on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" to tout a $1.2 billion investment by yogurt maker Chobani to build a manufacturing hub. Shapiro called it the "largest private-sector investment in the history of Pennsylvania's agriculture industry."
• 😷 Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and his brothers donated more than half a million dollars to train health care professionals from a hospital in the West Bank at the Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center. He's also slated to participate in a summit Wednesday organized by California Community Colleges exploring "AI, education and the future of work."
• On a swing through South Carolina last week, California Gov. Gavin Newsom suggested in an interview with the Associated Press that his home state's liberal reputation wouldn't necessarily hold him back in 2028: "In a Democratic primary, in particular — we've got the receipts, things that the party is arguing for, we've delivered across a spectrum of issues."