Axios 2028

February 08, 2026
🏈 Happy Super Sunday! We're back with our weekly newsletter guiding you through the next presidential election, starting with Democrats. 1,638 words, 6 minutes.
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1 big thing: 💥 Buttigieg's weakness
🚙 Pete Buttigieg is widely admired as a first-class communicator. But many Democrats think he's lacking as an administrator — and are pointing to his time as President Biden's transportation secretary.
Why it matters: Several of Buttigieg's potential rivals for the 2028 Democratic nomination for president are quietly beginning to pick at his work in Biden's Cabinet as a vulnerability, rather than an asset.
- 🏛️ They argue that Buttigieg was at times unable to navigate the federal bureaucracy to get hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of infrastructure projects built or launched quickly enough — and that such failures helped Donald Trump return to the White House.
- Buttigieg, a former mayor of South Bend, Ind., has little other governing experience to run on, so his tenure as transportation secretary would be critical to convincing voters he's up to being president, were he to run again.
By the numbers: In December 2021, Buttigieg cautioned that some projects in the bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill Congress passed that year would take many years to complete.
- But he said EV charging stations would be "sprouting up very quickly around the country," with a goal of 500,000 stations by 2030, aided by a $7.5 billion plan.
- By November 2024 just 25 were open, with much of the money unspent.
🖼️ The big picture: The massive infrastructure law Biden signed in November 2021 gave Buttigieg's Transportation Department $551 billion to distribute to local governments, states and other organizations.
- By the end of the administration, DOT boasted that "more than 22,000 projects that received [DOT] funding are already completed or well on their way."
- Even so, almost 30% of DOT's available money hadn't been awarded.
- Early in the Trump administration, the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office (GAO) wrote that as of April 2025, the Transportation Department "had yet to obligate almost $178 billion" in available funding from the infrastructure bill — "about 41% of the almost $438 billion authorized and appropriated" for fiscal years 2022 through 2025.
Some Democrats also had concerns about Buttigieg's pace in updating the antiquated Federal Aviation Administration.
- Jennifer Homendy, the Biden-appointed chair of the National Transportation Safety Board, said last month that systemic issues at the FAA were partly responsible for the catastrophic collision of a helicopter and plane over D.C. in early 2025 that killed 67 people.
- "We should be angry. This was 100% preventable," she said at a January hearing on the crash. "We know over time concerns were raised repeatedly, went unheard, squashed — however you want to put it — stuck in red tape and bureaucracy of a very large organization."
Buttigieg declined to be interviewed.
- Last October on the right-leaning "All-In Podcast," he defended his stewardship over the EV programs and called the criticisms a "red herring."
- "We made a couple of choices that we knew would mean that it would take longer but we were OK with that," he said, referring to decisions to make the chargers in America and to prioritize union labor.
Sean Manning, a Buttigieg spokesperson, told Axios: "Pete's proud of the record-level infrastructure improvement and passenger protection work that he led."
— Alex Thompson, Ben Geman
2. 💰 Bloomberg's big bet on Shapiro
🗳️ It's not an endorsement for president — yet — but billionaire Democratic megadonor Michael Bloomberg is placing chips on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's reelection campaign.
Bloomberg donated $2.5 million to Shapiro's effort in October — his biggest direct public contribution to a potential 2028 presidential candidate last year, according to campaign finance documents filed this week.
- 💵 Shapiro would have an edge in a presidential primary if Bloomberg, one of the world's richest people, were to help bankroll a super PAC or other group for him.
- Howard Wolfson, a longtime Bloomberg adviser, told Axios the former New York City mayor is "a big fan of Gov. Shapiro and a big believer in his leadership, and thinks he's done a great job for Pennsylvania."
- Wolfson, however, added: "Mike has not thought at all through the presidential contest."
By the numbers: Bloomberg is a longtime Shapiro ally who's given at least $5.25 million to his campaigns going back to the latter's 2016 bid for Pennsylvania attorney general.
🧐 Between the lines: Gun-control groups backed by Bloomberg, including Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund, Moms Demand Action and Students Demand Action, celebrated Shapiro as a champion of their cause when he was elected governor in 2022.
- Bloomberg and Shapiro are both moderate, pro-business Democrats who sometimes push back against the left wing of their party while championing liberal causes such as gun control.
Reality check: Shapiro isn't the only potential 2028 candidate with ties to Bloomberg and his political orbit.
- Bloomberg gave $2 million to a group backing Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) during her 2022 campaign.
- Bloomberg also has a relationship with Rahm Emanuel, another potential Democratic presidential contender, from when they were mayors of New York and Chicago, respectively.
Bottom line: The large donation to Shapiro is likely to be viewed as a sign in Democratic circles — especially among high-dollar donors — that Shapiro is a Bloomberg favorite.
- The billionaire has poured big money into Democrats and their causes in past elections, spending more than $170 million on the 2020 race, not counting his own presidential campaign that year.
- In 2024, Bloomberg invested at least $50 million in a group supporting then-Vice President Harris' run for president.
A Shapiro spokesperson didn't respond to a request for comment.
- Asked whether more big contributions are coming from Bloomberg for the midterms, Wolfson said: "Stay tuned."
— Holly Otterbein, Alex Thompson
3. ⚡️ Exclusive: New group boosts centrist Dems
Ezra Klein's Abundance movement is getting some backup: A new political group is urging Democrats to embrace "pro-growth," deregulatory policies with an eye toward 2028, according to plans first shared with Axios.
Why it matters: Known as Next American Era, the group is the latest effort by moderate Democrats to shape national politics and expand their influence at a time when progressives are making an aggressive push for more power.
- Former Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, ex-chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, will serve as president.
- The group describes itself as a "hub for center-left policy and advocacy." Bustos said it will air issue-focused ads during the midterm elections and the 2028 presidential campaign, but it won't endorse candidates.
🥊 Democrats have been locked in a heated debate over how to move forward since President Trump won a second term.
- Moderates such as Bustos have tried to nudge the party to the center, while progressives have criticized their vision as too friendly to big business and pushed for a tax-the-rich platform instead.
- Bustos argues that Democrats have been at their most successful when they've focused on bread-and-butter economic issues, such as jobs. Cutting red tape, streamlining regulations and supporting workforce training are among the top policy goals of her group.
- "We share many of the same principles as the Abundance movement ... around lowering costs, around making it easier to build and to generate opportunity," Bustos said.
Several center-left groups have popped up or expanded in the past 18 months, including the think tank Searchlight Institute, Majority Democrats, and WelcomePAC.
— Holly Otterbein
4. 🫏 This week in the pre-campaign
A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders have been up to:
- Former Vice President Harris created some buzz — good and bad — when she dusted off her dormant KamalaHQ social media accounts and relaunched them in an effort to organize young people. Harris also visited the headquarters of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, where she thanked staff for their work, sources told us.
- New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who's been weighing a Senate or presidential run in 2028, is taking one of her biggest steps yet on the international stage. She'll speak about world affairs at the upcoming Munich Security Conference. She also appeared on "The Don Lemon Show" after keeping a relatively low profile on the podcast circuit.
- Michigan Gov. Whitmer, who retreated from the 2028 spotlight last year, started a new Substack and declared that "our successes in Michigan can be replicated nationwide."
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that he'll kick off a tour promoting his new book in the South, historically the most important region in the Democratic presidential primary.
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker unveiled nine stops for his upcoming book tour, including several cities that are critical in the primary and general elections.
- Shapiro, who has been one of the most pro-AI Democratic leaders, proposed a set of guidelines for data center developers aimed at reducing power costs for residents and protecting the environment.
- Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego proposed a $20 minimum wage, more than that pushed by progressive leaders in Congress.
- Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker poured $5 million into the campaign to help elect Juliana Stratton, his lieutenant governor, to the U.S. Senate. He had been hands-off financially as she lagged in primary polls.
- California Rep. Ro Khanna campaigned in New Jersey for progressive House candidate Analilia Mejia, who this week had a stronger-than-expected finish in a special election that's still too close to call.
- Former Chicago Mayor Emanuel wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that Democrats "risk losing sight" of swing voters, as left-wing activists call for the abolition of ICE.
- Maryland Gov. Wes Moore's past statements about his great-grandfather fleeing the KKK came under scrutiny in a Washington Free Beacon article. A Moore aide said: "Anyone questioning whether racial terror and intimidation were pervasive in that era should open a history book."
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear will speak at the Center for American Progress in D.C. on Feb. 19 about "how Democrats can connect with America."
Thanks to David Lindsey, Axios managing editor for politics, for orchestrating. Edited by Arthur MacMillan. See you next Sunday!
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