Axios 2028

February 15, 2026
🇺🇸 Happy Presidents Day weekend! We're back with our weekly newsletter guiding you through the next presidential election, starting with Democrats. 1,475 words, 5½ minutes.
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1 big thing: 🦀 Wes Moore's Maryland problem
💫 Maryland Gov. Wes Moore's national star is on the rise, but his relationships with fellow Democrats in his backyard are fraying.
Why it matters: Moore appears to have little control over his state's Democrat-led legislature, as lawmakers repeatedly defy his wishes and override his vetoes even as he builds a national profile ahead of a potential 2028 campaign for president.
- Several Maryland Democrats told Axios that Moore is talented, but he's struggled because of a lack of experience and, at times, arrogance.
- 👎 State lawmakers overrode 19 of the bills Moore vetoed in December, including a bill to study reparations for descendants of enslaved people. Sources told Axios that veto particularly upset Black lawmakers.
Driving the news: Moore leads a solidly blue state, but his aggressive push to redraw congressional maps to help Democrats gain an extra seat in the U.S. House has so far stalled in Annapolis.
- Democratic Senate President Bill Ferguson has resisted Moore's calls to hold a vote on the proposal even after the state House of Delegates passed a redistricting bill in response to President Trump's mid-decade gerrymandering push.
- Moore argues the effort is necessary to protect democracy.
- But Maryland senators worry that if they gerrymander congressional maps, the state Supreme Court could overturn them and redraw the lines to be less favorable to Democrats.
The fissures seemed to deepen this week after Moore's State of the State address.
- Moore said he and Ferguson would "work together" despite their disagreements. But he also urged lawmakers to not "let the democratic process die" — which a person close to the state Senate Democratic Caucus described as "an escalation."
What they're saying: Moore is "not going to have difficulty getting reelected" to a second term this year, said Nina Smith, who was press secretary for former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley.
- "But he's going to have difficulty running for anything else nationally if he doesn't get the relationships right at home."
- Smith, who also was an aide to Pete Buttigieg's 2020 presidential campaign, added that Moore has done "amazing things," such as working to improve public safety and support young men.
The other side: Ammar Moussa, a spokesperson for Moore, said the governor and Democratic leaders in both chambers "all stood together" last month to unveil legislation aimed at lowering grocery costs.
- "There's a lot that they can work on together," he added, calling the back-and-forth over redistricting "just a disagreement."
🔬 Zoom in: Some Democrats in Maryland described Moore's skirmishes with the legislature as growing pains for a governor holding public office for the first time.
- Moore acknowledged this week that "it's taken time to build relationships, it's taken time to learn Annapolis." But he also was defiant. "I am an outsider at heart — and I don't see that changing," he said.
— Holly Otterbein, Alex Thompson
2. 💪 Pelosi boosts Newsom
Nancy Pelosi is retiring from Congress, but she has more campaigns in mind. Among them: Boost Gavin Newsom as a potential contender for the White House in 2028.
Why it matters: Publicly and privately, the former speaker has been touting the California governor, a fellow San Franciscan she's helped mentor for decades.
💰 Pelosi has one of the strongest donor networks in Democratic politics. She's been a key validator for Newsom as he's emerged on the national stage and become one of President Trump's most visible foes.
- "She's a Gavin fan-girl and she doesn't crush on many people," one former Pelosi aide said. "I will say this: She's hardly ever wrong. When she says she sees something, it's a real thing."
- Former Pelosi aides told Axios the former speaker was always eager to publicly vouch for Newsom whenever asked, and that she privately has expressed admiration for how he has navigated Trump with a combination of defiance and charm.
🌹 In recent national profiles of Newsom, Pelosi has lavished praise.
- "From the standpoint of leadership, vision, and values, knowledge of the issues, strategic thinking about how to get things done .... he's masterful," she told The New Yorker, a quote so effusive it surprised some former Pelosi aides.
- "I've seen him grow politically, I've also seen him have this beautiful family, and for all of us who love him, seeing him evolve has been wonderful to behold," Pelosi told Vogue.
- "Everybody thinks of Gavin and a silver spoon. But that isn't right," she told The Atlantic. "He was a very hard worker in everything that he did, whether it was personally, professionally, and then civically."
- "He'd make a great president," Pelosi told Politico this week, before adding that Democrats have many strong potential candidates for 2028.
Reality check: Pelosi remains largely focused on taking back the House of Representatives for Democrats this year, and making House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaker.
- It's unclear how much she'll help Newsom publicly after she leaves Congress.
Between the lines: 2028 will be the first election in more than two decades in which Pelosi won't be House Democrats' leader during a competitive presidential primary.
- That gives her more freedom to put her hand on the scale in the upcoming Democratic contest in a way she's not done before — but it's unclear how far she'll go.
🤔 The intrigue: The San Franciscans share many associations. Pelosi's brother-in-law was married to Newsom's aunt.
- Former aides told Axios that Pelosi has expressed admiration at Newsom's work ethic as he started in San Francisco politics and kept rising.
- When asked about the 58-year-old governor, Pelosi, 85, frequently says a version of: I knew him before he was born.
What they're saying: A Pelosi spokesperson declined to comment.
Newsom spokesperson Lindsey Cobia told Axios: "Gov. Newsom believes Speaker Pelosi is the epitome of selfless public service and will go down in history as one of the most consequential leaders of our time."
— Alex Thompson
3. 🫏 Trail mix: The week in the pre-campaign
A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders have been up to:
- Former Biden Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo re-emerged this week with a series of media appearances. She also participated in the Munich Security Conference.
- Speaking of Munich, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Arizona Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy and Newsom all made the trip. Ocasio-Cortez and Whitmer stumbled on foreign policy questions (watch AOC on Taiwan here and Whitmer on the Ukraine-Russia war here).
- Newsom is planning to go to New Hampshire, an early primary state, next month.
- Former Transportation Secretary Buttigieg went on the "Lemonade Stand" podcast.
- A spokesperson for Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker told Mother Jones that the governor thinks AIPAC "has abandoned its bipartisan principles and become a pro-Trump organization."
- Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is in a legal battle with one of his neighbors and talked about his music interests on the "Track Star" podcast.
- Gallego will headline the Montana Dems' fundraising dinner on March 7.
- Murphy is getting existential about AI.
- Moore was in North Carolina today and will remain there Monday, campaigning with Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper and having a mix of political and official meetings. Moore also was on CBS News' town hall series that premieres tonight after "60 Minutes," in which he argues that "Democrats have gotta stop being the party of no and slow, and start being the party of yes and now."
- Former Vice President Harris is still paying off millions in campaign debt, The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher reported.
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear did a New York City media swing, appearing on "The Daily Show," "The View," Stephen A. Smith's podcast, and MS NOW.
- Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock gave the keynote address at the UAW's conference in D.C.
- Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel unveiled a new education-focused policy proposal ahead of a swing through Michigan.
4. 1 fun thing: 🔮 Newsom's "big, hairy" goals
📜 Newsom is known for quoting Stoic philosophers and African proverbs.
- 🍷 So we weren't surprised when we came across a 1997 SFGate article that details bits of wisdom Newsom gave employees at PlumpJack, the cafe and wine store he opened in 1992.
The treatise was dubbed "PlumpJack Core Ideology & Random Notes," and its inspirational excerpts include:
- "PlumpJack believes the impossible is possible — and we are determined to prove it, then reprove it, day after day."
- "To fail to take big risks is the highest risk of all!"
- "PlumpJack forces employees way out of the box!"
Even then — 14 years before he'd rise from San Francisco politics to be California's lieutenant governor, and before PlumpJack would become a business empire — it was clear Newsom was ambitious.
- The notebook said the young restaurateur had "big, hairy, audacious goals."
Thanks to David Lindsey, Axios managing editor for politics, for orchestrating. Edited by Arthur MacMillan.
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