Axios 2028

December 14, 2025
π₯ Welcome back to our weekly newsletter guiding you through the next presidential election, starting with Democrats. Today: 1,636 words, 6 minutes.
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1 big thing: π₯ Inside the Newsom takedown
π€Ί Gavin Newsom's Democratic rivals are plotting how to take down the early 2028 frontrunner, with a heavy emphasis on how unpopular his left-leaning views are outside deep-blue California.
Driving the news: Our conversations with more than 20 Democratic operatives, including several working for 2028 hopefuls, reveal that they see the California governor as the guy to beat β and a guy with a lot of personal baggage that's exploitable for a presidential primary.
The consensus themes to expect in attacks on Newsom:
- The "too liberal, coastal elite" argument
- If primary voters prioritize electability, Newsom β a former San Francisco mayor β could be seen as a risky choice, the operatives say.
- Newsom has defended providing health care for undocumented immigrants because he supports universal health care β a mainstream position in the 2020 Democratic primary some Democrats have since abandoned.
- Affordability, housing and homelessness remain big problems in California, despite Newsom initiatives as mayor and governor.
- The wealthy Getty family has been a key backer of Newsom's political and business career, leading some of his foes in California to call him a slick "Davos Democrat."
2. The scandals
- When he was San Francisco's mayor in early 2007, Newsom apologized for having an affair with his campaign manager's wife, who was also a subordinate in his mayoral office.
- Newsom subsequently went to alcohol counseling and said: "I have come to the conclusion that I will be a better person without alcohol in my life." (He later said he began drinking occasionally.)
π¦ During strict COVID lockdowns he imposed as governor, Newsom in November 2020 attended a birthday dinner for a lobbyist and adviser at the posh French Laundry in Napa.
- He apologized and admitted attending the dinner was a "bad mistake." The incident fueled a movement to recall Newsom that he ultimately beat back.
- "French Laundry is never going away," an adviser to a potential 2028 rival told Axios. "It's one of the stickiest things ever."
Zoom in: Some of Newsom's potential rivals and other Democratic leaders have begun going public with attacks.
- California Rep. Ro Khanna, referring to Newsom's former chief of staff recently being charged with corruption, said the aide's indictment is a "toxic stain" on the state.
What they're saying: A Newsom adviser called rival operatives' plotting against the governor "ridiculous shadow boxing from overcaffeinated Beltway consultants."
π Newsom, 58, is trying to swat down or get ahead of such opposition. That effort includes his new book coming in February, "Young Man in a Hurry: A Memoir of Discovery."
- He emphasizes his beginnings as a small businessman with restaurants in the Bay Area and resists defining himself as a progressive or a moderate, saying he supports a big tent.
- Newsom signed deregulatory legislation this year in a push to build more housing.
- He's also hosted right-wing figures such as Steve Bannon and the late Charlie Kirk on his podcast. He emphasizes respectful conversation rather than heated debate β which has drawn criticism from some progressive Democrats.
π Newsom's surge this year β driven partly by his trolling of President Trump and a successful redistricting push in California to counter Trump's red-state redistricting β has drawn respect and envy from other Democratic leaders.
- Many now begrudgingly say they underestimated him.
- "Gavin has probably done the best from the 2028ers in the last year," said one source who's working for another possible presidential candidate.
Newsom says his new book is "a story about a kid who always felt like he wasn't quite enough" and includes details on "public and private moments that I'll always regret."
- He told reporters Thursday that he and his team are somewhat worried opponents will latch on to certain disclosures.
- "Being honest, it comes with a cost," he said.
β Alex Thompson and Holly Otterbein
2. β³οΈ Kamala tees up re-run
LOS ANGELES βΒ Kamala Harris isn't planning to go gentle into that good night. This week, the former vice president made clear to potential 2028 rivals that she's working to keep another White House campaign viable.
Why it matters: Despite worries from party leaders and donors that she can't win, Harris remains at or near the top of most 2028 Democratic primary polls.
- π³οΈ She also has strong support among Black voters β the most critical voting bloc in most recent Democratic presidential primaries.
Driving the news: After lying low the first part of this year and then embarking on a 2024-focused book tour, Harris made several moves this week that many Democrats see as the beginnings of a 2028 campaign.
- Her book tour expanded. Harris, 61, announced many more stops to promote "107 Days," her story of her short presidential campaign last year. Tour stops in early 2026 will include the historically critical primary state of South Carolina and cities with many Black voters, including Detroit, Jackson, Miss., Memphis, Tenn., and Montgomery, Ala.
- She appeared before the Democratic National Committee. Harris and her husband, Doug Emhoff, mingled with national party officials and state party chairs in L.A. this week during the DNC's winter meeting.
- At one gathering, DNC chair Ken Martin introduced Emhoff as the former second gentleman and quipped that he could be the future first gentleman, people who heard the remarks told Axios.
π€ Harris is also rolling out new rhetoric.
- She railed against both parties and the status quo in a speech Friday to Democratic officials. Many in the room told Axios they were struck by how different Harris' remarks were from her Biden-defending message on the campaign trail last year.
- "Both parties have failed to hold the public's trust," Harris said. "β¦. People are done with the status quo and they're ready to break things to force change."
- "We cannot afford to be nostalgic for a flawed system that failed so many," she added, arguing that President Trump is a "symptom" of a bigger problem.
π«΅ After the speech, some committee members told Axios they want Harris to run in 2028 β and that when Harris mentioned "the future," someone shouted, "You!"
- Harris spokesperson Kirsten Allen said Harris "will approach 2026 with the same commitment that anchored 2025 β listening to the American people, reflecting where leadership has fallen short, and helping shape the path forward beyond this political moment."
β Alex Thompson
3. π« Trail mix: The week in the pre-campaign
A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:
- Newsom told New York Times columnist Ezra Klein he's reading Marcus Aurelius' "Meditations," a collection of writings by the Roman emperor.
- Harris sat down with the NYT and said she understands the focus on 2028, "but there will be a marble bust of me in Congress. I am a historic figure, like any vice president of the United States ever was."
- Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg traveled to L.A., where he met with former (and potential future) mayoral candidate Rick Caruso and was on "Jimmy Kimmel Live." Buttigieg will speak at the Detroit Auto Show in January.
- Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock unveiled his new book, "The Crooked Places Made Straight: Reflections on the Moral Meaning of America," due in June. He delivered a speech in D.C. on America's "spiritual crisis." Asked by Axios afterward about the decline of religiousness among Democrats, he partly attributed it to suspicion of "institutions writ large."
- Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro championed AI at a Semafor event and spoke about political violence at Washington National Cathedral with Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R). In a joint CNN interview, Cox said Shapiro would make a good president.
- Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel released a video backing a national social media ban for children. Shapiro disagreed with the idea, saying his approach is to focus more on digital literacy.
- Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker held a star-studded fundraiser for the DNC in L.A., where he was introduced by comedian Conan O'Brien. Pritzker signed a bill to restrict federal immigration enforcement at Illinois courthouses and legislation allowing for assisted suicide for some terminally ill adults.
- Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego and Emanuel went to Miami to stump for mayoral candidate Eileen Higgins, a moderate who was the first Democrat to win the seat in nearly 30 years. Buttigieg also endorsed Higgins.
- Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz defended Somali Americans, saying "we're going to do more to welcome more in" amid President Trump's attacks on them. Walz has come under fire for a fraud scheme in his state that law enforcement officials say was carried out by Somali immigrants.
- Maryland Gov. Wes Moore attended the Army-Navy game in Baltimore along with Gallego. Trump was also there.
- The Washington Free Beacon reported that Moore had inconsistencies on his application for a White House fellowship as a young man. A Moore spokesperson said the conservative publication was "doing what they always do β manufacturing doubt about the accomplishments of a Black veteran, Rhodes Scholar and public servant because it fits their narrative."
4. π΅ 1 fun thing: Murphy's freak folk
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a potential candidate for president in 2028, doesn't take his musical tastes too seriously.
In 2016, the liberal senator copped to liking "Fight Song," Hillary Clinton's campaign anthem. "But I also listened to the first @NickLachey solo album on repeat," he joked on social media, referring to the member of boy band 98 Degrees. "So there's that."
We asked Murphy to share his 2025 Spotify Wrapped, the company's always-revealing annual list of users' listening habits. Indie band Bon Iver was his No. 1 artist. The atmospheric music producer Hans Zimmer and instrumental duo Analog Heart, which also made the list, were his "background music for writing," a Murphy aide told us.
And Murphy's top genre of freak folk?
- π€·π»ββοΈ "Do not ask me what freak folk means," the aide said.
Thanks to David Lindsey, Axios managing editor for politics, for orchestrating. Edited by Arthur MacMillan. See you next Sunday!
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