Axios 2028

May 17, 2026
๐ Welcome back to our weekly newsletter guiding you through the next presidential election, starting with Democrats. 1,785 words, 6ยฝ minutes.
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1 big thing: ๐ฅ The left's battle of the Bernies
๐คบ Veterans of Bernie Sanders' two presidential campaigns are splitting their allegiances between a pair of Democrats vying to inherit his progressive movement: New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Rep. Ro Khanna.
Why it matters: Ocasio-Cortez and Khanna are deploying contrasting strategies to build momentum toward possible White House runs in 2028 โ a split that reflects some of the tensions between Sanders' 2016 and 2020 campaigns.
- Khanna has taken a slightly more centrist view than Ocasio-Cortez on issues such as crime and immigration. He's hired key members of Sanders' 2016 campaign, which had a relatively moderate brand on immigration and guns โ and didn't fear going negative on Hillary Clinton.
- AOC, meanwhile, has tapped strategists behind Sanders' effort in 2020, when the Vermont senator moved left on social issues to back policies such as decriminalizing border crossings by unauthorized immigrants, and largely avoided bashing Joe Biden.
Driving the news: The fault lines between the "Old Bernie" and "New Bernie" camps burst into public view last week, when Khanna and Ocasio-Cortez clashed over whether progressives should work with former MAGA loyalist Marjorie Taylor Greene.
- Ocasio-Cortez is the clear frontrunner to succeed Sanders. But Khanna, while much less known, has successfully recruited Sanders alums.
- On Khanna's "Old Bernie" team: Jeff Weaver, Sanders' 2016 campaign manager; Julian Mulvey, an ad maker for Sanders that year; Shannon Jackson, a former longtime Sanders aide; and Sarah Michelsen, Sanders' 2020 Nevada state director.
- On AOC's "New Bernie" crew: Mike Casca, Sanders' 2020 senior communications adviser; Oliver Hidalgo-Wohlleben, Sanders' 2020 national delegates coordinator; and outside adviser Matt Duss, the Vermont senator's former top foreign policy aide.
๐ฐ Khanna's aggressive effort to poach Sanders strategists is driven partly by necessity: He's far behind AOC in early 2028 polls, lacks her small-dollar donor base, and isn't a juggernaut on social media as she is.
- "He's trying to collect any Bernie staffer he can," a former Sanders aide said.
Friction point: Sanders ran both of his presidential campaigns on populist economic promises like raising the minimum wage and passing Medicare for All. AOC and Khanna are likewise champions of progressive fiscal policies, but they've diverged on other topics.
- That includes whether to team up with Greene, a former House member who's won praise from some progressives for breaking with President Trump and criticizing Israel's war in Gaza.
๐๏ธ Ocasio-Cortez said last week that Democrats shouldn't partner with Greene โ remarks that some thought were aimed at Khanna, who's worked with Greene to push for the release of the Epstein files.
- "I personally do not trust someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene, a proven bigot and antisemite, on the issues of what is good for Gazans and Israelis," Ocasio-Cortez said during a talk with Democratic strategist David Axelrod.
- Khanna told Axios: "I will not yield an inch when it comes to standing for progressive values and for the human rights of every person. But if conservatives are willing to support justice for Epstein survivors or stopping the war in Iran, I will work with them."
- AOC also supports the release of the full Epstein files, but was attacked personally by Greene: The Georgia Republican once posted a photo of herself with a gun alongside Ocasio-Cortez and other progressive House members known as the "Squad."
Ocasio-Cortez and Khanna likewise staked out somewhat different stances toward immigration shortly after the 2024 election.
- Khanna said voters backed Trump because they wanted "lower prices and a secure border."
- ๐ Ocasio-Cortez focused on the looming impact of Trump's immigration policies, saying that "for all of the people who cast a vote based on grocery prices and inflation, if you think your groceries are expensive now, wait until the farms are empty."
- ๐ฎ On crime, Khanna has said he never backed "defunding the police," while AOC was a vocal proponent. Khanna also has reached out to the father of a woman killed in a drunk-driving accident caused by an immigrant who authorities said was here illegally. Conservatives call them "angel families," and they've been among Trump's most loyal supporters.
What they're saying: Sanders alumni working for AOC and Khanna told us they're in contact, and there is some overlap between their operations. Weaver was a senior adviser on Sanders' 2020 campaign, and Casca was part of his 2016 crew. Duss said he talks to Khanna.
- "The two teams like each other and have a lot of shared connections, given everyone is part of the progressive movement and pushing towards many of the same goals," a person familiar with both camps said.
โ Holly Otterbein, Alex Thompson
2. ๐ข Rahm has big ideas. Anyone listening?
Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has been blasting out more national policy papers than any other potential 2028 presidential candidate.
- So far, polls show few voters care.
๐บ Why it matters: Emanuel has gotten national coverage for his plans, has hit the podcast circuit, appears regularly on CNN and writes a column for the Wall Street Journal. But he's barely a blip in early 2028 polls, as other potential candidates such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom have risen over the past year.
๐ By the numbers: A national poll by Echelon Insights in April had Emanuel's support as an asterisk โ less than 1% โ behind California Rep. Ro Khanna's 1% and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff's 2%.
- Of 690 New Hampshire Democrats polled by St. Anselm College in March, just five said they support Emanuel.
- A University of New Hampshire poll in February pegged Emanuel's support at 0%.
- In March, a UC Berkeley survey found that fewer than 0.5% supported Emanuel as their first choice and just 1% backed him as their second choice.
๐ The other side: It's early.
- Most voters aren't paying attention. Emanuel has been White House chief of staff and ambassador to Japan but has run for office only in Illinois, so he doesn't have the name recognition of other political figures.
- Some national polls didn't include Emanuel as a possible 2028 contender in their questions, so it's unclear what his support would have been.
What they're saying: Asked why he thought his polling remained low and what his plan was to fix it, Emanuel told Axios: "I'm not worried about my 1% in the polls. I'm worried about the 1% that has turned its back on the rest of America, and that's what my plans and my policy ideas address."
- He added: "As always, D.C. has too much time on its hands.โฆ We're not in the first inning. We're not in the pregame. We aren't even in spring training, and you're asking me about the World Series."
๐ฌ Zoom in: Emanuel has been operating, however, as if the 2028 campaign is well underway. He's proposed policies that include:
- Social media limits for kids
- A ban on federal employees betting with prediction markets
- Work training for retired service members
- Mandatory retirement for politicians at age 75
- A federal tax on online gambling and prediction markets
- Tax credits for first-time homebuyers
- Diverting ICE funding to community colleges.
He's already visited several states that will be key in the 2028 Democratic primary, including Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire, where he'll return for a bike tour next month.
โ Alex Thompson
3. ๐ซ Trail mix: The week in the pre-campaign
A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:
- ๐ณ๏ธ Ocasio-Cortez rallied with Chris Rabb, a U.S. House candidate in Pennsylvania, and campaigned in Montgomery, Ala., on Saturday at a voting rights rally. She announced she'll campaign in Missoula, Mont., on Friday to support Sam Forstag's bid for Congress. Bernice King also welcomed AOC to the King Center in Atlanta "for a thoughtful conversation about data centers, threats to voting rights, and the path forward."
- Khanna also campaigned with Rabb to talk about Black leadership.
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker announced he'll campaign with state Sen. Sharif Street, one of Rabb's Democratic foes in the Philadelphia-based district.
- ๐ฎ๐ฑ Asked if she still considered herself a Zionist, Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin told Politico: "I believe in a Jewish state of Israel, yes. And that to me isn't a radical thing to say. I can say that in the same breath that I criticize the military policy of Bibi Netanyahu."
- Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly was the keynoter at the Democratic Women's Council of Darlington County's annual luncheon in Hartsville, S.C.
- ๐ท Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker went to the hospital Wednesday night for what his office said was "a minor complication from his urology procedure."
- ๐จ๐ฆ Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
- ๐ฝ Buttigieg also backed Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek in the contested Democratic primary for a U.S. Senate seat.
- Emanuel went on Stephen A. Smith's "Straight Shooter" politics show and talked about antisemitism and more.
- Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was a guest on a live show of "Men in Blazers" in Philadelphia.
- Newsom appointed Rohit Chopra โ a favorite among left-wing populists โ to lead California's new consumer protection agency. Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings and tech billionaire Chris Larsen said they're supporting Newsom for president.
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear received a warm reception in New Hampshire.
- The debate about the DNC's still-secret autopsy of the 2024 election reignited, as former Biden-Harris deputy campaign manager Rob Flaherty penned his own critique.
- Maryland Gov. Wes Moore replaced his reelection campaign manager, the Baltimore Banner reported. Moore was the latest potential candidate to sit down with Politico's Jonathan Martin for his "On the Road" show.
- ๐ฉ๐ปโโ๏ธ Former VP Kamala Harris called for an "expanded playbook" and a "brainstorm" for Democrats that could include expanding the Supreme Court, changing the Electoral College and more.
4. ๐ญ 1 fun thing: Kelly's "Mousetronaut"
๐งโ๐ Kelly, a retired astronaut and former Navy pilot, moonlights as a children's author.
- ๐ He wrote three books about a mouse who goes to outer space. His title: "Mousetronaut."
As Kelly told Stephen Colbert in 2024, the series is based on a โ kinda โ true story.
- ๐ "I had 18 mice on my first space shuttle mission" for research, he said. "On purpose. They weren't, like, under the floor or anything."
- "17 of them were freaked out" โ they didn't like feeling weightless.
- But "one of them seemed to get it and would fly across and get his water โฆ float over and get his food โฆ so we labeled him the 'mousetronaut.'"
๐ Thanks to David Lindsey, Axios managing editor for politics, for orchestrating. Copy edited by Brad Bonhall.
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