☄️ New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is on a hot streak.

• 🗳️ In the last month alone, four progressive House candidates she's endorsed in open primaries have cruised to victory, making her an early kingmaker as she weighs a 2028 presidential run.

Why it matters: AOC has gotten on a roll by deploying a different strategy from that of her mentor, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) — one that, despite its success, is dividing the left.

• While Sanders has endorsed dozens of progressive candidates up and down ballots across the country this year, Ocasio-Cortez has been more choosy.
• ⚠️ Some on the left say she's being overly cautious, and reluctant to support progressives who are taking on her Democratic colleagues in the House.

State of play: AOC's left-wing picks won congressional primaries in California, Pennsylvania, Montana and New Jersey — often over the Democratic establishment's preferred candidates.

• 🫏 🐘 Her favorites have succeeded in both deep-blue and GOP-controlled districts.
• But so far, Ocasio-Cortez has shied from endorsing anti-establishment progressives in high-profile Senate primaries — notably in Maine, where Sanders got behind primary winner Graham Platner, and in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed is on the Aug. 4 primary ballot.
• 👏 Staying out of the Maine primary enabled AOC to keep her hands clean as controversy after controversy consumed Platner — but it also left some progressives frustrated.

AOC likewise has avoided backing left-wing insurgents trying to unseat Democratic House incumbents, even though she got her start in politics by ousting a sitting member of her party.

• Sanders and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani are rallying in Brooklyn on Thursday for Darializa Avila Chevalier, a democratic socialist challenging Rep. Adriano Espaillat, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
• The rally will include New York City-area congressional candidates Brad Lander and Claire Valdez, whom Sanders and Mamdani have endorsed. Lander is challenging Rep. Dan Goldman, and Valdez is running for the seat held by departing Rep. Nydia Velázquez, who has endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso.
• Ocasio-Cortez hasn't endorsed in any of those races yet.

Yes, but: AOC has been more willing to get behind progressives challenging sitting Democratic members of New York's state legislature than Mamdani.

🤔 The intrigue: A New York progressive operative said Ocasio-Cortez endorses only in races that are "close to a sure thing — she's not going to take a lot of risks."

• That operative praised Mamdani — who's seen as closer than AOC to the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) — for throwing his weight behind Chevalier. "It shows the stomach he has and the commitment he has to the movement. He's not worried about ruffling feathers and taking risks."
• Jesse Lehrich, a Democratic strategist who writes a newsletter about 2028 candidates, shot back, "Only AOC could strategically leverage her influence to secure improbable progressive victories from NYC to Montana, and get yelled at by the left for being a sellout."

🔎 A person familiar with AOC's endorsement process told Axios she looks for candidates who can win as well as those for whom her support could make a difference. She often quizzes contenders on their field organizing, path to victory, and ties to the community.

• "It's ideologically driven in some part, but it's also really driven by candidates who can get it done," the source said.
• AOC liked that Philadelphia congressional candidate and state Rep. Chris Rabb was casually known around town as "Rep. Rabb" — a sign of his local roots. She headlined a rally for the left-wing contender, who has clashed with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, in a three-way competitive primary.

Between the lines: AOC's fans and critics alike agree on one thing: Her endorsement matters.

• Anti-establishment progressive Saikat Chakrabarti recently lost his bid for Congress in San Francisco. He campaigned on the fact that he was AOC's first chief of staff in Congress — but she didn't endorse him.
• "That was probably the major factor" in his loss, he said. "My opponent spent about $1 million turning [AOC's] non-endorsement into an attack on my trustworthiness."
• But Chakrabarti said he didn't blame Ocasio-Cortez, and said if he were to rerun the race, he likely wouldn't focus on that part of his biography.

Read more.

— Alex Thompson, Holly Otterbein

💪 MINNEAPOLIS — The nation's most powerful labor unions have a message for potential 2028 contenders for president: It's us or the machines.

😬 Why it matters: AI anxiety dominated much of the conversation at the AFL-CIO's national convention here last week, as leaders from the group's 65 affiliated unions called on politicians to impose significant AI regulations.

• Those planning a run for the White House are likely to have trouble satisfying both business-friendly Democrats and the party's progressive base, which is increasingly wary of or hostile to AI.

State of play: Unions see opportunities for union labor to build data centers and other AI projects, but believe that both parties are falling short in plans to protect workers from the consequences of AI.

• 💰 "You're either with workers or you're with millionaires," AFL-CIO president Liz Shuler told us. "There's just been a dearth of leadership in terms of elected officials really prioritizing this and putting workers at the center."

The AFL-CIO didn't invite potential 2028 candidates to the convention to avoid overly politicizing the event, but union leaders had plenty of criticism of their AI policies.

• Chrissy Lynch, president of the Massachusetts AFL-CIO, said California Gov. Gavin Newsom's recent executive order on AI was "not helpful."
• "It says the right things, but it's just more research, and what we need is action," she argued.

🧐 But Lynch and others don't support a moratorium on building data centers that's supported by Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders.

• Building trade unions in particular see constructing data centers as a way to provide good-paying jobs, and believe that a moratorium would hurt their members.

Zoom in: On Tuesday, union leaders spoke under a large banner declaring "AI should work for us" as they railed against AI-powered technology such as surveillance pricing, "bossware" programs, digital replicas, synthetics, data harvesting, discriminatory algorithms, and more.

• The unions passed a resolution declaring "Our message to elected leaders is clear and unequivocal: You can either stand with Big Tech's drive to maximize profits at all cost, or you can stand with working people in supporting responsible and careful technological change. But you can't do both."

Between the lines: Many Democrats eyeing 2028 runs have been calling for more AI regulation, as polls indicate that voters are increasingly anxious about AI.

• That's been a reversal for some governors who previously had embraced many AI-related projects, and the jobs and business they could bring to their states.

🤺 AI is dividing Republicans as well.

• Although the Trump administration has been largely hands-off toward AI companies, potential GOP White House contenders such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley have been increasingly critical of the technology.

Read more.

— Alex Thompson, Holly Otterbein

A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:

• 🇨🇦 Shapiro became the latest potential 2028er to play shadow president, traveling to Canada to sign a trade agreement with Ontario Premier Doug Ford and blasting President Trump's "reckless and disrespectful rhetoric" about our next-door neighbor.
• 👎 Former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told the Boston Globe, "I don't think so" when asked if she's considering running for the White House — the second high-profile woman to back away from a 2028 campaign.
• 🏀 Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel was courtside at Monday's New York Knicks game with his brother, Ari Emanuel.
• 🎤 California Gov. Gavin Newsom brought Hunter Biden onto his podcast, capitalizing on Biden's newfound status as the Internet's favorite scamp.
• 🪖 Maryland Gov. Wes Moore's team touted a Baltimore Banner story whose headline reads "Wes Moore's military service is not in doubt. His storytelling is." A Moore spokesperson said the first line "matters because Sinclair and The Sun have spent months trying to suggest the opposite." (Sinclair Broadcast Group's executive chair, David Smith, owns the Baltimore Sun.)
• 🚫 Some of former Vice President Kamala Harris' past allies told ABC they don't want her to make another run for the White House.
• Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear talked about his wardrobe with an Iowa influencer and gave the keynote speech at the Nevada Democratic Party's state convention. Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock and California Rep. Ro Khanna also spoke there.
• Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg spoke at the late Jesse Jackson's Rainbow PUSH Coalition convention in Chicago.
• ☢️ Pritzker also appeared on Scott Galloway's "Prof G Markets" podcast, where he made an eyebrow-raising comment about Shapiro's state, saying that "in Pennsylvania they're restarting Three Mile Island just for a data center.… My guess is that's going to be a reasonably unpopular thing to have done."
• 💵 New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker is plowing six figures into helping protect Black political representation in the South — which is at risk after a recent Supreme Court decision weakening the Voting Rights Act — MS Now reported.
• Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin waded into the contentious Minnesota Senate primary, endorsing moderate Rep. Angie Craig over progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.
• Warnock sat down with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who had requested a meeting in response to comments Warnock made to the New York Times about Johnson's faith.
• Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego is making a swing Friday through South Carolina, which is bidding to host the party's first 2028 primary.
• 🍝 Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen is headlining the Cheshire County Democrats' spaghetti dinner today in New Hampshire, a longtime early primary state.
• Khanna blasted his state's slow vote count, saying the current system "is eroding trust and spawning conspiracy theories" — his latest thinly veiled knock on Newsom.