👀 A growing number of Jewish Democrats tell us they feel shunned — like unwelcome strangers in their own party.

Why it matters: They warn that the constant and escalating hostilities over Israel's actions in Gaza have at times veered into hostility toward Jewish Americans that could hurt Democrats in 2028.

• 🗳️ A large majority of Jewish Americans vote Democratic. Any shifts among Jewish voters who feel alienated from the party could impact the 2028 election — particularly in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia, which have large Jewish populations.
• "For many Jewish Democrats, the Democratic Party is just the latest institution that welcomed us and is turning hostile," Howard Wolfson, a longtime Democratic strategist who worked for Hillary Clinton and Mike Bloomberg, told Axios.

🇮🇱 State of play: The party's internal tension over Israel is rising at a time when Jewish Democratic leaders such as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin are potential contenders for president in 2028.

• 📉 Support for Israel's government — for decades a matter of bipartisan agreement in the U.S. — has fallen sharply among Democrats, polls show.
• As voters' opinions on Israel have shifted, some in the party's left wing have become more accepting of associating with people who've made conspiratorial or controversial comments about Jews and Israelis.

Several incidents in the past year have increased the alarm among Jewish Democrats. Among them:

• Graham Platner, the likely Democratic nominee for a Maine Senate seat and a fierce critic of Israel, sporting a Nazi-linked tattoo. (He said he didn't know what it meant and later covered it up, but a former girlfriend says he knew the image's history.)
• A social media account for Philadelphia Democratic congressional nominee Chris Rabb, who was endorsed by New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), previously reposting that the Bondi Beach massacre of Jews was likely a false-flag attack by "Zionists." His team blamed the December post on a former staffer and said he condemns antisemitism.
• A Democratic House candidate in Texas, Maureen Galindo, calling for a "prison for American Zionists." She didn't win a primary runoff election but still got 36% of the vote despite being denounced by both parties.

What they're saying: "There are Jewish Democrats in key states who might be hard-pressed to support the nominee if the nominee is decidedly hostile to Israel — and it's a big problem for the party," Wolfson said.

• "Jews are starting to feel scared again," said Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), who's Jewish. He said Jewish voters are beginning to leave the Democratic Party but that it's not yet a "mass exodus."
• Moskowitz added that party leaders are "not taking it seriously. Words are irrelevant; condemnation statements are irrelevant."
• Pritzker told Politico that "antisemitism has often been connected to people's views about Israel. That is: If you don't like what Israel and, in particular, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu are doing, now it's OK to have slurs that you're spewing about Jews. It's not. It's never OK."

Jewish staffers in some Democratic campaigns and offices say they've increasingly felt a chill from colleagues.

• One former Biden White House official told Axios: "No Jews in the Biden administration agreed with what Netanyahu was doing, but we all felt like we were having to answer for it by the party and our colleagues."

The other side: Many believe the worries about Jewish Democrats fleeing the party are overblown, noting that there has been a rise in hostility toward Jewish people and Zionists on the right.

• "I think the Democratic Party has an Israel issue, but I think the Republicans have a Jewish issue," Emanuel told Axios.

Others say Democrats' internal fight over Israel could be a good thing.

• Ned Price, a former spokesperson for the Biden State Department, said a debate within the party is "necessary, legitimate, and long overdue," while the rise of antisemitism "must be condemned unequivocally."

Read more.

— Alex Thompson, Holly Otterbein

🥊 Democrats in mostly blue Maine are threatening to retaliate if Republican-led Nebraska changes how it awards Electoral College votes for the 2028 presidential election.

🫵 Why it matters: It's the latest example of tit-for-tat election politics that have come to define the Trump era, and that could help determine who wins the race for the White House.

🔭 Zoom in: Several Democrats running to be Maine's next governor have signaled they'd support modifying state law to adopt a "winner take all" electoral vote system in the presidential race if Nebraska did the same.

• 🗳️ Unlike other states, Maine and Nebraska dole out their Electoral College votes partly based on the winner of each congressional district.
• That's led to GOP presidential contenders picking up one of Maine's four Electoral College votes in the 2020 and 2024 elections, and Democrats similarly winning one of Nebraska's five Electoral College votes in those years.

Speculation that Nebraska could move to a winner-take-all system has fueled chatter about a response by Maine.

• 🔥 "We must fight fire with fire," Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, posted last week on X. "If Nebraska changes their Electoral College system to a winner-take-all, Maine must be prepared to act in response to protect the presidency and our democracy."

Zoom out: Nebraska Republicans — under pressure from Gov. Jim Pillen — debated changing state law last year to allocate their Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis, but those efforts fell flat.

• Some Democrats, however, remain concerned that Nebraska's legislature could pass such a bill. That possibility was a major issue in a congressional primary last month.

❌ The potential changes in Maine and Nebraska would nullify each other if both were enacted.

• But just the possibility of even a small tweak in each party's Electoral College calculus has led to game-planning similar to what happened during President Trump's mid-decade redistricting push.
• Hannah Pingree, another Democrat running for Maine governor, told us she'd support changing the state's Electoral College system to winner-take-all if Nebraska did — and that it's worth considering even if Nebraska didn't.
• "In this time of Donald Trump, I think it's really important to think about common-sense changes in our laws," she said.

Nirav Shah, a third Democrat vying for Maine governor, backs changing the state's current approach toward allocating Electoral College votes if Nebraska did so, he told Axios.

• A fourth contender for Maine governor, Troy Jackson, a progressive backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), said on social media that he's "very open to looking at changes" in the state's Electoral College policy.

Reality check: Jane Kleeb, chair of Nebraska's Democratic Party, told us that fears of a change in her state are overblown.

• "The Nebraska Republican Party does not have the votes to change the current fair-split electoral vote system," she said in a text.

Read more.

— Holly Otterbein

A look at what potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are up to:

• Former Vice President Kamala Harris is traveling to New Orleans on Aug. 7 to talk about how Democrats can "counteract" a recent Supreme Court ruling likely to reduce Black political representation, we scooped.
• Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock is visiting Nevada, a traditional early primary state, on Friday to headline a state party reception and talk with voters, his team told us first. Warnock said in a statement that "President Trump promised the people of Nevada that he would put more money in their pockets," but "instead fewer tourists are coming to Las Vegas."
• Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy is donating $50,000 to 14 county party chairs in battleground congressional districts. "Local parties shouldn't be operating on a shoestring budget," he told us.
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom's team boasted on social media that some of the state's gubernatorial candidates who were critical of his tenure lost the primary contest last week.
• Ocasio-Cortez is the top Democratic fundraiser in the House this year, Inside Elections found — a feat she's achieved by amassing small-dollar donations. AOC has helped boost several progressive candidates across the country — but not beleaguered Platner. "I haven't waded into that primary," she told CNN.
• California Rep. Ro Khanna dived into the Maine Senate race, appearing at a rally with Platner on Friday, where he said the candidate was ashamed of some of his past actions but has "worked to be a better man." It's the latest example of how AOC and Khanna, progressive acolytes of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, are taking contrasting approaches ahead of 2028.
• Businessman Mark Cuban was the headline speaker Wednesday at D.C.'s WelcomeFest, a get-together of centrist Democrats. Cuban insisted he won't run for president — and when we asked him afterward if a political outsider should be the next Democratic nominee, he said: "It's not about that.… It's just people who can actually come up with solutions."
• Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego also spoke at the event, where he said Democrats are "going to be branded as these 'others' " unless "we actually show that we're the party of opportunity." NOTUS reported that Gallego supports sectoral bargaining, a policy that would empower labor unions.
• Shapiro aired the first TV ad for his reelection 2026 campaign, which touted his expansion of the state's free school breakfast program. CNN reported that former President Obama wanted Harris to pick Shapiro as her running mate in 2024.
• Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will headline an Iowa Democratic Party fundraiser July 12, Politico scooped.
• Pritzker announced that he's taking executive action aimed at pausing tax breaks for data centers — a U-turn from his previous position.
• Emanuel biked through New Hampshire and had several meet-and-greets along the way.
• And Hunter Biden trolled the internet by joking "LFG" regarding a 2028 run for president.