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The total number of new hospitalizations, ICU admissions and daily intubations in New York have decreased each of the past three days — an indication that social distancing may be working, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Monday.

The big picture: The governor's office has been tracking different models that predicted a peak of between 55,000 and 110,000 hospital beds needed for coronavirus patients in New York by the end of April. Data over the past few weeks suggests that hospitalizations may potentially be plateauing earlier than those models projected.

Chart: Gov. Cuomo's office

What they're saying:

"We saw where the statisticians and the folks looking at these types of models said it was going. So what activities and actions could you take to aggressively lower that overall number? And the answer really was, and what the governor has been doing was, aggressively enforce and enact social distancing to lower the overall number. And this number and the current data suggests that that is exactly what’s happening. It's not settled yet. ... But this could suggest we are indeed, potentially at the apex, or beginning to be at the apex at this moment."
— Jim Malatras, aide to Gov. Cuomo

Yes, but: Despite these new projections, Cuomo said the worst is not over and urged New Yorkers to continue to follow social distancing guidelines.

  • Cuomo announced he would extend New York's stay-at-home order until April 29 and raise the potential maximum fine for social distancing violations from $500 to $1,000.
  • "There has been a laxness on social distancing especially over this past weekend that is just wholly unacceptable," Cuomo warned. "Look, people are dying. People in the health care system are exposing themselves every day to tremendous risk walking into those emergency rooms."

Go deeper

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
20 mins ago - Health

New data reignites the debate over coronavirus vaccine strategy

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

New research is bolstering the case for delaying second doses of coronavirus vaccines.

Why it matters: Most vulnerable Americans remain unvaccinated heading into March, when experts predict the more infectious virus variant first found in the U.K. could become dominant in the U.S.

20 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Rail's big moment is arriving

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Passenger rail could be the big winner if Congress moves ahead with President Biden's ambitious infrastructure plan.

Why it matters: There's long been bipartisan support for rebuilding America's crumbling infrastructure, but under Biden, the focus has shifted to sustainable projects that fulfill both his climate and equity goals, such as rail transit.

Scoop: Schumer wants to freeze stimulus changes

Sen. Chuck Schumer. Photo: Al Drago/Getty Images

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is privately saying he can pass President Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus package but wants to avoid any last-minute changes jeopardizing its trajectory, three sources familiar with the talks tell Axios.

Why it matters: While the president hoped to enlist Republican support for the measure, Schumer has worked to ensure he has a solid 50 votes to muscle it through if necessary. A parliamentary ruling Thursday improved his chances.