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Susan Walsh / AP

Rep. Fred Upton's proposed changes to the GOP health care bill won't be nearly enough to shield moderate Republicans from criticism that they're abandoning sick people. He's proposing $8 billion over five years to strengthen the bill's coverage of people with pre-existing conditions. Axios' Caitlin Owens reports that it's mainly to help people pay the penalty for not keeping themselves insured.

The bottom line: Compared to what it would take to shield them from huge premium increases, that's "a drop in the bucket," Matthew Fiedler of the Brookings Institution told me. Upton told reporters at the White House after meeting with President Trump this morning that "I support the bill with this amendment."

In context:

  • Total individual market claims over those five years will probably be about $500 billion, mostly from people with pre-existing conditions, per Fiedler.
  • The $8 billion over five years might be enough to help 160,000 people with their premiums — but that's "a fraction of the millions with pre-existing conditions who are in the individual insurance market or uninsured," Larry Levitt of the Kaiser Family Foundation told me.
  • The liberal Center for American Progress estimated yesterday that high-risk pools — the Republicans' proposed safety net for people with pre-existing conditions who can't buy regular insurance — would be underfunded by $19.7 billion a year, or $200 billion over 10 years.

Go deeper

Mike Allen, author of AM
2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

First look: Anita Dunn advises Dems on economy message for '22

Signs from a President Biden event yesterday in Kansas City, Mo. Photo: Chase Castor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

In a midterm preview, top Democratic strategist Anita Dunn advises the party's House and Senate members to frame Republicans "as being against the economic interests of working Americans."

What she's saying: "Explicitly framing Republicans as opposing policies to lower costs does better than simply framing Republicans as the 'party of no,'" Dunn, White House senior adviser until August, writes in the memo.

JPMorgan: "Full global recovery" in 2022

Photo: Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase Global Research says in a forecast to clients: "2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak."

The big picture: The bullish report sees "a return of global mobility, and a release of pent-up demand from consumers (e.g. travel, services)."

Inside Trump's hunt for "disloyal" Republicans

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Donald Trump and his associates are systematically reshaping the Republican Party, working to install hand-picked loyalists across federal and state governments and destroy those he feels have been disloyal, sources close to the former president tell Axios.

Why it matters: If most or all of Trump’s candidates win, he will go into the 2024 election cycle with far more people willing to do his bidding who run the elections in key states.