Oct 6, 2019

Scoop: Mulvaney predicts post-impeachment landslide

Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

In numerous recent conversations with colleagues, including last week's senior staff meeting, White House acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney has said he thinks President Trump could win 45 states in 2020 after the impeachment process — a magnitude of landslide that few if any independent pollsters would dare predict.

Between the lines: People who've heard Mulvaney make this remark say he wasn't joking or even exaggerating. He appears to genuinely believe that impeachment will have a profoundly positive effect on Trump's political fortunes, according to 3 sources who have heard Mulvaney make the 45-state prediction.

  • Mulvaney also believes that the longer the impeachment process drags on, the better it is, politically, for Trump, these sources added.
  • Mulvaney did not stipulate which 5 states he thought Trump would still lose when he made these comments, a source who heard them said.
  • His view appears to be based more on instinct than polling data. I have seen no polling that supports his prediction, and at this early stage, responsible polling analysts are extremely wary of predicting which party will benefit more from impeachment in 2020.
  • But it's possible Mulvaney is echoing the ebullience emanating from the Trump campaign. They are raising breathtaking sums online by telling supporters to give money to help Trump fight the Democrats trying to impeach him.

The big picture: Mulvaney's view is far from a consensus in Trump's orbit — some see considerable peril and downside political risk for the president as the impeachment inquiry moves forward — but his voice is one that the president hears every day and could bolster how Trump views the political dynamics of impeachment.

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Conservative leaders to send White House letter in support of Mulvaney

Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

A group of conservative leaders plan to send a letter to the White House and Capitol Hill on Thursday expressing support for acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, who has come under fire in the wake of a chaotic press conference last week, according to a source who shared the draft letter with Axios.

Why it matters: Mulvaney’s friends and allies have recently grown worried about his job security. They’ve been hearing reports that he’s being cut out of some decisions and deprived of information by White House counsel Pat Cipollone. Mulvaney’s mishap of a press conference last week — in which he conceded, then retracted, that there was a politically motivated "quid pro quo" involved in Ukrainian aid — armed his internal critics with additional weapons.

Go deeperArrowOct 24, 2019

Scoop: Trump's private concerns of an impeachment legacy

Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

President Trump has told friends and allies he worries about the stain impeachment will leave on his legacy.

Driving the news: In a phone call with House Republicans on Friday, Trump articulated why he really doesn't want this. Impeachment, Trump said, is a "bad thing to have on your resume," according to a source on the call. Two other sources on the call confirmed the substance of the comment, but one said they recalled Trump phrasing it as "you don't want it [impeachment] on your resume."

Go deeperArrowUpdated Oct 7, 2019

Trump's new impeachment mantra: "Get over it"

Trump rallies in Dallas. Photo: Tom Pennington/Getty Images

President Trump's 2020 campaign says it's releasing a line of merchandise featuring a new slogan: "Get over it."

Context: The line comes from Trump Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, who declared in a press conference yesterday that Michael McKinley, a longtime diplomat who resigned over political interference in foreign policy, should "get over it."

Go deeperArrowOct 18, 2019