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Expand chart

Data: Survey Monkey online poll conducted Oct. 24-26 among 2,949 U.S. adults. Total margin of error is ±2.5 percentage points. Modeled error estimates: African-American women ±8.0, age 18–34 ±5.0, White suburban women ±5.5, Never Hillary Independent voters ±10.0, Rural voters ±5.0, Republicans ±4.0, Democrats ±4.0, Independents ±7.0; Poll methodology; Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios

Voters like some form of “Medicare for All” but are divided over what it should look like, according to our latest Axios/SurveyMonkey poll — which is about the same situation Democratic candidates are in.

The big picture: Many of Democrats’ leading 2020 prospects, and a host of candidates in the midterms, have embraced “Medicare for All,” but there’s a big variation in the policies they propose under that banner.

Between the lines: We asked our poll respondents two related questions — what they think candidates mean by “Medicare for All,” and what they want that policy to mean, if they support it at all.

By the numbers: Overall, 52% of those surveyed said they think “Medicare for All” refers to a single, government-run health care program covering everyone. That’s what Sen. Bernie Sanders, who popularized the term “Medicare for All,” has proposed.

  • Republicans were more confident in that assessment than Democrats: 61% of Republicans said "Medicare for All" is single-payer, compared with 51% of Democrats. A plurality of independents — 42% — said they don’t think candidates are talking either single-payer or an optional program that would compete with private insurance.

Voters were more divided over what they want “Medicare for All” to be, given the same choices.

  • 34% said they would favor a single-payer system; 33% said they would prefer an optional public plan alongside private insurance; 30% wanted neither.
  • Democrats were far more open to a single-payer system than Republicans and independents.
  • Of the five voter subgroups Axios is following in the midterm elections, African-American women and young adults were most interested in some form of "Medicare for All," while rural voters were least interested.

Add it up, and most people — 67% — seem to be on board with either single-payer or a public option, suggesting that “Medicare for All” is popular, but that's partly because of its multiple meanings.

Yes, but: The 2020 Democratic primary will likely bring the issue into much sharper focus.

  • In the midterms, every Democrat can pick the definition that works best for their race. But with so many candidates running for the same office in 2020, putting a finer point on “Medicare for All” will be a big part of the larger Democratic debate.

Methodology: This analysis is based on SurveyMonkey online surveys conducted Oct. 24–26 among 2,949 adults in the United States. The modeled error estimate for the full sample is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Sample sizes and modeled error estimates for the subgroups are as follows:

African-American Women (n=160 +/- 8%), Millennials Age 18–34  (n=619 +/- 5% ), White Suburban Women (n=585 +/- 5.5% ), Never Hillary/Independent voters  (n=150 +/- 10% ), Rural  (n=694 +/- 5% ). Respondents for this survey were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. More information about our methodology here. Crosstabs available here.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

The massive early vote

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Early voting in the 2020 election across the U.S. on Friday had already reached 61.7% of 2016's total turnout, according to state data compiled by the U.S. Elections Project.

Why it matters: The coronavirus pandemic and its resultant social-distancing measures prompted a massive uptick in both mail-in ballots and early voting nationwide, setting up an unprecedented and potentially tumultuous count in the hours and days after the polls close on Nov. 3.

Republicans gear up for day-of and post-Election Day litigation

Voters wait in line to cast their early ballots Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Republican Party officials say they're already looking to Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Nevada as likely battlegrounds for post-election lawsuits if the results are close.

The big picture: As pre-election lawsuits draw to a close, and with President Trump running behind Joe Biden in national and many battleground state polls, Republicans are turning their attention to preparations for Election Day and beyond, and potential recounts.

Federal Reserve expands lending program for small businesses

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a news conference in 2019. Photo: Eric Baradat/AFP via Getty Images

The Federal Reserve said on Friday it would again lower the minimum loan size for its pandemic-era small business program.

Details: Businesses and nonprofits will be able to borrow a minimum of $100,000 from the facility, down from $250,000 — a move that might attract smaller businesses that don't need as hefty of a loan. Since the program launched earlier this year, the minimum loan size has been reduced twice.