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A stacked area chart forecasting global livestream commerce sales from 2025 to 2030 in China, the U.S. and the rest of the world. The chart indicates sales increasing from almost $1.5 trillion in 2025 to over $3.5 trillion in 2030. Sales in China dominate.

Livestream commerce sales forecast

Data: ARK Investment Management; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Live shopping is projected to more than triple in the U.S. by the end of the decade as retailers, creators and streaming platforms embrace the format.

Why it matters: After years of failed attempts to replicate China's livestream shopping boom, the U.S. market is finally gaining momentum.

By the numbers: The U.S. livestream commerce market is projected to grow from $200 billion in 2026 to $680 billion by 2030, according to Ark Invest. 

Globally, livestream commerce is expected to expand from $1.7 trillion this year to $3.7 trillion by the end of the decade.

TikTok Shop sales generated through live shopping grew more than 80% in 2025 compared with the prior year, and live shopping gross merchandise volume doubled during the first half of 2026, the company told Axios. 

More than 1,600 creators each achieved over $1 million in annual sales on TikTok Shop in 2025.

Whatnot reached $8 billion in live sales in 2025 alone, more than doubling the year before, the company told Axios. Globally on average, users spend 98 minutes a day watching live shows on the platform.

The big picture: Live shopping has evolved into what TikTok calls "discovery e-commerce," where entertainment, product discovery and checkout happen in the same experience, says Patrick Nommensen, president of strategic initiatives for TikTok Shop Americas.

"Live shopping asks the question: Can you make shopping online fun?" Ark Invest's director of research, consumer internet and fintech Nicholas Grous says. Traditional retailers are designed to make shopping "extremely easy." 

Sellers don't simply list products. They share the story behind an item, show how a product looks and feels and answer buyers' questions, creating experiences that more closely resemble a favorite neighborhood shop than a traditional e-commerce site.

Whatnot CRO Armand Wilson says the company's success comes from building communities, starting with Funko Pop! before expanding into Pokémon cards, sports cards, fashion and even fresh food.

Between the lines: People tune into livestreams for inspiration, along with some intent-based buying.

TikTok Shop users conducted more than 103 billion e-commerce-intent searches in the U.S. last year, Nommensen says, showing consumers come ready to shop.

Zoom out: Streaming companies are looking to bring that engagement and more commerce experiences to television.

NBCUniversal recently launched "Shop What Happens," a Bravo series sponsored by Target across Peacock, YouTube, TikTok and Instagram.

The company already has proof that commerce content resonates with audiences. "Jill's Steals and Deals does over half a billion dollars" in annual sales, NBCUniversal chairman of global advertising and partnerships Mark Marshall says.

Walmart also is expanding its commerce ambitions on TV. The retailer recently acquired Vibe.co, a connected TV ad platform.

What to watch: The U.S. still trails China because of differences in consumer behavior and infrastructure.

Grous says American consumers are accustomed to shopping through Amazon and other traditional platforms, while China's e-commerce ecosystem evolved around mobile-first experiences that more easily translate to social commerce.

Joy Tang, founder and CEO of creator platform Markable, says logistics also matter, with live shopping working best when sellers have large inventories ready to ship.

TikTok has expanded its logistics offerings, including Fulfilled by TikTok, an end-to-end service that handles warehousing, packing and shipping. It also offers pickup. Nommensen says that logistics remains a major area of investment.

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U.S. live shopping expected to triple as retailers compete with China

U.S. live commerce is expected to triple by 2030 as retailers race to catch up with China.

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U.S. live shopping expected to triple as retailers compete with China

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