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Photo: Craig Barritt/Getty Images for Starwood Preferred Guest

Marriott announced Friday that up to 500 million people might be affected by a data breach of the Starwood properties guest reservation system. But it's harder than ever today to interpret a first estimate —"up to 500 million" could mean 500 million, nearly five hundred million, or substantially less.

The big picture: The new privacy law in the European Union, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), requires companies to notify government agencies about breaches almost immediately. Gone are the days where a company can do a full investigation before announcing a breach, and that means most are likely to overestimate until better facts come in.

500 million guests: Marriott has an advantage in trying to figure out who was affected in the breach since the company found the database of information hackers were compiling to steal, and it first decrypted the database 11 days ago.

  • But, as the press release notes, "The company has not finished identifying duplicate information in the database." That would be important, because there are people who have stayed at Starwood hotels more than once.

Between the lines: GDPR only took effect this year and there have been few breaches of this potential size in history, meaning there is virtually no comparable instance to help gauge how the 500 million number might change.

  • Remember, breach estimates have been wrong in the other direction before, too. Equifax repeatedly had to revise the number of people affected by its breach upward by millions.

The bottom line: Whether the number shrinks, grows or stays the same, the best advice is this: If you've stayed at a Starwood property, assume you were affected until you can confirm otherwise.

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2 hours ago - Sports

China wins 1st gold of Tokyo Olympics

Silver medalist Anastasiia Galashina of Russia, gold medalist Yang Qian of China and bronze medalist Nina Christen of Switzerland celebrate on the podium after the 10m air rifle women's final. Photo:

China's Yang Qian won the first gold of the Tokyo Olympics, narrowly beating Anastasiia Galashina of the Russian Olympic Committee in the women's 10-meter air rifle final.

Why it matters: The first medal ceremony of the Games took on extra meaning after a year-long delay and other hurdles brought on by the pandemic. Athletes are required to hang medals around their own necks in an effort to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Journalism's two Americas

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

There's a sharp divide in American journalism between haves and have-nots. While national journalists covering tech and politics on the coasts reap the benefits of booming businesses and book deals, local media organizations, primarily newspapers, continue to shrink.

Why it matters: The disparate fortunes skew what gets covered, elevating big national political stories at the expense of local, community-focused news.