Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Catch up on the day's biggest business stories
Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter
Stay on top of the latest market trends
Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.
Sports news worthy of your time
Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.
Tech news worthy of your time
Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.
Get the inside stories
Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas
Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters
Photo: Craig Barritt/Getty Images for Starwood Preferred Guest
Marriott announced Friday that up to 500 million people might be affected by a data breach of the Starwood properties guest reservation system. But it's harder than ever today to interpret a first estimate —"up to 500 million" could mean 500 million, nearly five hundred million, or substantially less.
The big picture: The new privacy law in the European Union, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), requires companies to notify government agencies about breaches almost immediately. Gone are the days where a company can do a full investigation before announcing a breach, and that means most are likely to overestimate until better facts come in.
500 million guests: Marriott has an advantage in trying to figure out who was affected in the breach since the company found the database of information hackers were compiling to steal, and it first decrypted the database 11 days ago.
- But, as the press release notes, "The company has not finished identifying duplicate information in the database." That would be important, because there are people who have stayed at Starwood hotels more than once.
Between the lines: GDPR only took effect this year and there have been few breaches of this potential size in history, meaning there is virtually no comparable instance to help gauge how the 500 million number might change.
- Remember, breach estimates have been wrong in the other direction before, too. Equifax repeatedly had to revise the number of people affected by its breach upward by millions.
The bottom line: Whether the number shrinks, grows or stays the same, the best advice is this: If you've stayed at a Starwood property, assume you were affected until you can confirm otherwise.