Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Markets got a shot in the arm from fiscal stimulus expectations last week, but it's not negotiations between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Trump administration that's got investors' attention — it's the largesse of spending expected from Pelosi, President Joe Biden and a Democratic Senate in 2021.

What's happening: Trump's polling numbers have fallen through the floor since the first presidential debate on Sept. 29.

  • They continued falling after his COVID-19 diagnosis was revealed Oct. 2.
  • Polls showed further declines after he announced on Twitter that he was pulling out of stimulus negotiations and backtracked within hours.
  • And they may fall further after a New York Times story released this weekend raised allegations of Trump illegally financing his 2016 campaign with a secret loan that exceeded legal limits.

The bottom line: "New surveys fall into two buckets: those that are bad for Trump, and those that are horrible," Politico notes in a recent analysis.

The intrigue: Investors believe Trump will likely drag down Senate Republicans in tight races, as GOP-held Senate seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina are heavily favoring Democrats, with Iowa now leaning toward the Democratic challenger.

  • Democrats need to net just three seats to get a 50/50 chamber split, with a tie-breaker held by the vice president.
  • Data from Raymond James puts the likelihood of Democrats taking control of the Senate at 66%, up from 55% before the debate, and FiveThirtyEight's average of national surveys puts the chances at 68%.

Listen to the market: The reflation trade that unwound in September leading to the fastest market correction in history for the Nasdaq has found new life since the presidential debate and particularly at the end of last week.

  • In addition to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 jumping more than 4% since Sept. 30, gold and silver have popped since Oct. 7 — with silver gaining 3.3% in just those two sessions — and the dollar index has declined.
  • Stocks and precious metals fell in September, with the S&P off by 4.5% and silver declining by 18% during the month. The dollar was up 1.7%.

One level deeper: Long-term inflation expectations also have picked up in recent days, boosting Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities prices.

  • The 30-year U.S. breakeven rate closed just above 1.85% on Friday, its highest since July 2019 and less than 15 basis points from the Fed's all-important 2% threshold, per Tradeweb.
  • The 10-year breakeven rate closed above 1.73%, up 13 basis points since the end of September.
Reproduced from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; Chart: Axios Visuals

With a Democratic Congress, Biden is expected to add at least $650 billion dollars more to the deficit than President Trump would and up to $1.5 trillion over 10 years, according to a new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

  • And that doesn't even include pandemic-related spending.

Yes, but: For both campaigns, "considerable policy ambiguity exists," CRFB said in its analysis of the plans.

  • "The Biden campaign website features 48 different plans, most of which include dozens of individual policy proposals that overlap in some cases."
  • "We identified more than 800 distinct proposals."

Be smart: Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields also rose meaningfully at the end of last week on blue wave expectations, and higher yields (especially for the benchmark 10-year note) could prompt the Fed to expand its quantitative easing program to include more purchases of 10-, 20- and 30-year bonds, another potential boost for equities.

  • “There is still quite a bit of flexibility in the asset purchase side right now, and it allows us flexibility to also provide more accommodation if that's necessary,” Chicago Fed president Charles Evans told Yahoo Finance Thursday.

Go deeper

Updated Mar 24, 2021 - Politics & Policy

Biden Cabinet tracker: Which nominees have been confirmed

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on Jan. 16 in Wilmington, Delaware. Photo: Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

All of President Biden's Cabinet nominees have now been confirmed by the U.S. Senate.

The big picture: Biden now has known, trusted people around him, many from the Obama administration, to help implement his policies and turn away from the tumultuous Trump years.

6th victim dies following South Carolina shooting

Jack Logan, founder of Put Down the Guns Young People, places stuffed animals and flowers outside of Riverview Family Medicine and Urgent Care on Friday after the fatal shooting in Rock Hill, South Carolina, a day earlier. Photo: Sean Rayford/Getty Images

The only survivor of this week's mass shooting in South Carolina by former NFL player Phillip Adams has died of his injuries, authorities said Saturday.

Details: Robert Shook, 38, an air conditioning technician from Cherryville, North Carolina, died of gunshot wounds from Wednesday's shooting at a doctor's home in Rock Hill, S.C., which claimed the lives of five other victims.

2 hours ago - World

In photos: Egypt unveils 3,000-year-old "lost golden city"

A view on Saturday of the city, dubbed "The Rise of Aten," dating to the reign of Amenhotep III, uncovered near Luxor. Photo: Khaled Desouki/AFP via Getty Images

A top Egyptian archaeologist on Saturday outlined details of a newly rediscovered "lost golden city" near Luxor that dates back more than 3,000 years.

Why it matters: Zahi Hawass told NBC News the large ancient city, unveiled Thursday, tells archaeologists for the first time "about the life of the people during the Golden Age." Johns Hopkins University Egyptology professor Betsy Brian said in a statement it's "the second most important archeological discovery since the tomb of Tutankhamen."