Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!
Expand chart
Data: CME Group; Note: Chart does not include expectations below 5% for a rate hike in 2020; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Just four days into February, traders have thrown out the Fed's guidance that it will remain on the sidelines in 2020, and lined up bets for multiple U.S. interest-rate cuts.

What's happening: Fed fund futures prices show that as the coronavirus outbreak has worsened, expectations are rising that the Fed will take action, as policymakers did last year when the U.S.-China trade war began to ravage the manufacturing, trade and transportation industries.

Plus, the latest reports on the U.S. economy have not been particularly bullish, notes Jon Hill, an interest rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

  • He points to weaker-than-expected readings in December and January on consumer and producer inflation, jobs, manufacturing and a mixed Q4 GDP report.
  • The data "is not screaming ‘everything is awesome,'" Hill tells Axios.

Why it matters: The IMF credits loose monetary policy with stabilizing the global economy last year as central banks around the globe cut rates almost in unison. But it may not work again.

  • The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and a swath of central banks throughout Europe already hold negative interest rates and are pumping out tens of billions of dollars in stimulus each month.
  • The Fed has U.S. rates almost even with inflation and has added around $400 billion to its balance sheet since September.

What they're saying: Central bank stimulus may now be reaching a point where it's “ineffective if not counterproductive” in combating current issues, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, said during an interview on CNBC.

The big picture: Oxford Economics chief U.S. economist Gregory Daco came into the year with an out-of-consensus expectation that the Fed would cut rates once before year-end. He's now predicting "a couple of rate cuts and potentially earlier easing than even we expected" because of possible economic damage from the coronavirus.

  • "From a U.S. perspective, we anticipate a loss of 0.4% of GDP growth" in the first quarter, Daco tells Axios.
  • "This will be the result of reduced tourism activity, supply chain disruptions preventing the nascent rebound in business investment from solidifying, and tightening financial conditions constraining business and consumer outlays."

Watch this space: In addition to pricing in expectations for two rate cuts by year-end, CME Group's FedWatch tool shows traders see a greater than 50% chance of a cut by June.

  • Fed fund futures prices show a 36% chance of a rate cut as soon as the Fed's next meeting in March, according to FactSet data.

Go deeper: The Fed plans to keep pumping cash

Editor's note: A quote in the story was clarified to show Gregory Daco was referring to the loss of U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter.

Go deeper

D.C.'s building boom grinds to a halt

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

The decades-long building boom that remade Washington D.C. is screeching to a halt, undone by broader construction trends and the legacy of the post-pandemic workplace.

Why it matters: Dizzying construction has reshaped the city, reinvigorated downtown and created bustling new communities. 

Facebook fights for its image

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Facebook is ditching apologies and taking a more combative stance against its critics as it faces a new barrage of negative coverage and leaked internal reports.

Driving the news: As part of the new posture, Facebook started testing placing positive messages about itself in users' News Feeds last month, according to a New York Times story Tuesday.

2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Charter schools boomed during the pandemic

Expand chart
Data: National Alliance for Public Charter Schools; Map: Sara Wise/Axios

Charter schools picked off hundreds of thousands of public school students across the U.S. during the pandemic, according to a new analysis from the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools.

Why it matters: The pandemic has weakened America's public education system, as Zoom classes, teacher fatigue and student disengagement take their toll. And that hobbled system is shedding students to charter schools, private schools and homeschooling.