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Data: CME Group; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

In one week, futures traders have gone from seeing virtually no chance of a rate cut at the Fed's next policy meeting to a more than three-quarters likelihood.

Why it matters: Economists aren't sure a rate cut would be effective at offsetting the damage from the coronavirus outbreak, and would put the Fed in a weaker position to bolster the economy should the U.S. fall into a recession.

  • But under chair Jerome Powell, the Fed has not gone against the market once in two years of policy meetings.

Details: Markets see significant likelihood the Fed cuts rates three times this year, and sees one rate cut each by the European Central Bank and Bank of England this year.

  • This is despite the Fed barely holding U.S. interest rates at a positive real level (above the rate of inflation), the ECB holding rates at -0.5%, and the BoE with rates at all-time lows.

Be smart: "With Fed rate cut probabilities for the March meeting now at 70% either Powell, [vice chair Richard Clarida or N.Y. Fed president John Williams] need to address the shift in market expectations," RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas tells Axios in an email.

  • "If this is left unattended the Fed runs the risk of a major market upset around its March 17-18 meeting."

Yes, but: “The problem with doing monetary stimulus is that it will have limited impact on the effects of the virus,” Jens Peter Sorensen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, tells Bloomberg.

  • “The COVID-19 virus is keeping people from work, the supply chain is disrupted and tourists are not going to Italy. Monetary policy can do very little.”

Go deeper: Federal Reserve leaves interest rates on hold

Go deeper

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 33,362,341 — Total deaths: 1,001,800 — Total recoveries: 23,153,572Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 a.m. ET: 7,149,073 — Total deaths: 205,069 — Total recoveries: 2,794,608 — Total tests: 102,342,416Map.
  3. Business: Companies are still holding back earnings guidance.
  4. Health: Trump announces plan to distribute 150 million rapid tests —The childless vaccine.
  5. Media: Fauci: Some of what Fox News reports about COVID-19 is "outlandish"
  6. States: Cuomo extends New York moratorium on evictions until 2021.
  7. World: More than 1 million people have now died from coronavirus — India the second country after U.S. to hit 6 million cases.

Kentucky attorney general to release Breonna Taylor jury deliberations

Attorney Ben Crump places his hands on the shoulders Tamika Palmer, Breonna Taylor's mother, near a mural of her daughter at Jefferson Square Park on Sept. 25 in Louisville, Kentucky. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Grand jury proceedings in the case of Breonna Taylor, an unarmed Black woman fatally shot by police, will be released on Wednesday, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron confirmed to news outlets.

Driving the news: Cameron's announcement late Monday came hours after a judge granted an unnamed juror's court motion seeking the release of last week's transcripts and related recordings.

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