National Guard didn't reduce D.C. violent crime, report says

The big picture: Researchers at the Niskanen Center found last August's deployment led to a 24% decline in "opportunistic" property crimes.

• Auto thefts, for example, dropped sharply; so did other property offenses.
• But violent crimes — including robberies — were already on a downward cycle pre-deployment, and the deployment didn't measurably change anything.

Researchers have a theory: The Guard deployed to busy and touristy areas, "where opportunistic property crime tends to occur and where visible deterrence is most likely to be effective."

• But violent crime is more often the result of "interpersonal dynamics, social network conflicts, and the structural conditions of high-poverty neighborhoods," the report says, citing criminologist research.
• The Guard by and large did not deploy to neighborhoods most plagued by violence, reports at the time suggested.

Zoom out: Researchers found the Guard didn't free up D.C. police to redeploy to high-crime areas, saying the "footprint of MPD policing was essentially unchanged."

The bottom line: While the deployment "was not a waste" — thanks to property crime reductions — it's an "expensive tool" that could've been deployed more precisely.

• And researchers say a more targeted MPD deployment would've achieved more, for cheaper.