Record number of D.C. restaurants will close this year

Driving the news: The Restaurant Association of Metropolitan Washington's latest report tracked 92 closures through November — up from more than 70 last year and the third straight year of increases. More closures are expected by year's end.

• They hit businesses at every level — fine dining (e.g. Reverie, Tail Up Goat, Petite Cerise), fast-casual (Shouk), and bars like the Passenger, Valor Brew Pub and Never Looked Better.
• But the middle is hurting the most.

Mid-priced spots ($21 to $40 per person) account for two-thirds of the reported closures — over 60 businesses, per RAMW.

• Think: Haikan, Brookland's Finest, Makan/Thirsty Crow, Beuchert's Saloon, Sticky Rice and Logan Tavern — many longtime neighborhood fixtures.

What they're saying: "Those places are the vanishing middle," RAMW president Shawn Townsend tells Axios. Labor-heavy service models and rising food costs collide with diners who're watching their wallets.

• Fine dining — a growing sector in D.C. — can weather price increases. "People don't care about the cost of branzino, they're spending. But in the middle market, that matters," says Townsend.

By the numbers: From RAMW's fall member survey of nearly 150 restaurants:

• 76% of mid-priced spots served fewer diners.
• 72% reported lower sales.
• Only 7% planned to hire new front-of-house staff.

Yes, but: 109 restaurants opened in D.C. through November — outpacing closures, but still a 30% drop compared to the same time period last year. And only 47% of those openings were mid-priced, down sharply from 67% in 2022.

Zoom out: Nationally, consumers are hitting their spending ceiling on restaurants, especially as prices climb and consumer confidence dips. But in D.C., local pressures — federal workforce cuts, wage increases, President Trump's federal takeover, the record shutdown and lagging office recovery — make the squeeze harder.

• In RAMW's survey, 83% of their members cited immigration enforcement and federal layoffs as top concerns. Nearly 60% reported employee absences tied to Immigration and Customs Enforcement fears.

Zoom in: Tony Tomelden, who closed decade-old Brookland's Finest in April, points to Initiative 82 and the tipped wage hike from $5 to $10 an hour. "Doubling your payroll is a significant jump not everyone can make," he tells Axios.

• He fears a "closure cliff," especially for mid-market spots: "I worry it'll be nothing but chains and counter service."

Reality check: Some closures reflect shifts, not exits: Lucky Buns closed one location; Kayu reopened elsewhere; others are downsizing menus or service models.

• Take Sook (formerly Compass Rose), which just opened on 14th Street. Owner Rose Previte transformed it into a counter-service wine bar — nixing complicated cocktails and long menus, trends we're seeing.
• "Labor is a big issue," Previte tells Axios. "If we do simpler stuff, it can still be fun and delicious, but an affordable night out."

Others are still opening mid-priced ventures, just not in D.C. Restaurateur Alan Popovsky tells Axios he's closing Lincoln to pursue opportunities in Virginia.

• His downtown area has seen a string of closures — Georgia Brown's, McCormick & Schmick's, Officina Cafe, BLT Steak and Nerds & Nibblers. He blames empty offices and "unforgiving" landlords.
• "As much as I love the District, and I've lived here since 1990, it's not fostering its businesses."

What we're watching: D.C.'s high-stakes 2026 election cycle — including the mayor's race and a proposed $25 minimum wage ballot initiative — could reshape the city's restaurant landscape yet again.