Chesapeake Bay blue crab population plunges near record low
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Blue crabs being counted in the 2025 Winter Dredge Survey. Photo: courtesy Kenny Fletcher
The Chesapeake Bay's blue crab population has dropped to record, "distressing" lows, according to the annual Winter Dredge Survey.
Why it matters: The yearly "crab count" measures the abundance and health of the population — and by virtue, the Bay — and this year's report is among the most dire in decades.
- The results can inform fishing regulations, such as catch limitations and shortened harvesting seasons, which can also impact market price and availability.
State of play: After years of decline, the 2025 crab population hit an estimated 238 million — the second lowest count since the surveys began in 1990, according to the Virginia Institute of Marine Science and Maryland Department of Natural Resources, which jointly conduct the survey.
- The crab population hit an estimated all-time low in 2022, with 226 million crabs. That year, Maryland limited its commercial catch for the first time ever to address the decline, while harvests were also restricted in Virginia.
Threat level: The survey shows declines in all segments of the crab population, from adult males (about 26 million) to females (108 million) and juveniles (103 million). The numbers in all groups are significantly lower than last year, when officials told Axios, "we have little reason for any type of alarm."
- A plethora of causes can contribute to decline, from overfishing to habitat loss (e.g. underwater grasses), predation — especially by invasive species like blue catfish — and run-off pollution.
The big picture: The dire crab-cast comes at a critical time for the Chesapeake. Decades of cleanup efforts have brought the nation's largest estuary back from the brink in the '70s, when dead zones were rampant, species threatened, and "Save the Bay" became a regional mantra.
- Environmental groups like the Chesapeake Bay Foundation (CBF) have been warning of the potentially disastrous impact of the Trump administration's cuts on the EPA and NOAA, and funding for the Chesapeake Bay Program, which Trump repeatedly threatened to slash in his first administration.
Protection efforts are particularly tricky given the Bay's massive watershed, which spans six states and the District, and the tangle of local and federal regulatory bodies that can contradict.
- Just last year, Virginia officials voted to lift a prohibition on winter crab harvesting for the first time in nearly 15 years — which Maryland opposed. The decision was ultimately reversed.
Zoom in: After years of negative dredge survey results, the CBF is urging Virginia and Maryland fisheries and state regulators to reduce crab harvests and strengthen protections for female crabs. They're also calling on the federal government to keep funding organizations that support Bay health and protections.
- "The red flags are flying for blue crabs," Allison Colden, CBF's Maryland director, says in a statement. "It is clear that changing conditions in the Bay are undermining the current management of this important species."
Between the lines: The dredge survey is a "snapshot" taken annually, where scientists and commercial watermen dredge up crabs "hibernating" on the Bay's bottom in cold winter months, assess them, and return them safely.
What we're watching: The results of a comprehensive, years-long "stock assessment," slated to come out next year, which will more accurately detail the crab's population, causes for decline and environmental impacts, and possible solutions.